Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework

Bijan Fazal; Joanna Schmidt; Ben Phillips; Irian Ordaz; Kenneth Moore

NASA NTRS · 20240009195

Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework

Bijan Fazal·Joanna Schmidt·Ben Phillips·Irian Ordaz·Kenneth Moore

Abstract

This paper presents a technical approach to improve the confidence in the systems analysis process by integrating Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques within a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) framework. The MBSA&E architecture uses system models and multidisciplinary analytical solutions as central artifacts for system design and analysis. The integration of UQ enables engineers to assess and mitigate uncertainties associated with a system model, design parameters, and constraint inputs, leading to more complete design studies and further informed decision-making processes. The proposed approach leverages the strengths of MBSA&E and extends it with a UQ methodology to quantify uncertainties in the input parameters and to trace the uncertainties as they propagate throughout the system model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of an integrated MBSA&E-UQ approach, a case study involving a simplified analysis of a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) concept vehicle is performed. This integration enables a more comprehensive evaluation of system performance and behavior under uncertainty and a more robust approach for system design and analysis. Lastly, the paper addresses the challenges and considerations associated with integrating UQ into an MBSA&E framework.

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systems analysis systems engineering model-based systems engineering multidisciplinary design analysis and optimization uncertainty quantification truss-braced transonic wing model-based systems analysis and engineering model-based systems analysis

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Bijan Fazal, Joanna Schmidt, Ben Phillips, Irian Ordaz, Kenneth Moore. Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20240009195

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