Surveillance Metrics Sensitivity Study

Abstract

In September of 2009, a Tri-Lab team was formed to develop a set of metrics relating to the NNSA nuclear weapon surveillance program. The purpose of the metrics was to develop a more quantitative and/or qualitative metric(s) describing the results of realized or non-realized surveillance activities on our confidence in reporting reliability and assessing the stockpile. As a part of this effort, a statistical sub-team investigated various techniques and developed a complementary set of statistical metrics that could serve as a foundation for characterizing aspects of meeting the surveillance program objectives. The metrics are a combination of tolerance limit calculations and power calculations, intending to answer level-of-confidence type questions with respect to the ability to detect certain undesirable behaviors (catastrophic defects, margin insufficiency defects, and deviations from a model). Note that the metrics are not intended to gauge product performance but instead the adequacy of surveillance. This report gives a short description of four metrics types that were explored and the results of a sensitivity study conducted to investigate their behavior for various inputs. The results of the sensitivity study can be used to set the risk parameters that specify the level of stockpile problem that the surveillance program should be addressing.