PV output variability modeling using satellite imagery.

Abstract

High frequency irradiance variability measured on the ground is caused by the formation, dissipation, and passage of clouds in the sky. If we can identify and associate different cloud types/patterns from satellite imagery, we may be able to predict irradiance variability in areas lacking sensors. With satellite imagery covering the entire U.S., this allows for more accurate integration planning and power flow modeling over wide areas. Satellite imagery from southern Nevada was analyzed at 15 minute intervals over a year. Methods for image stabilization, cloud detection, and textural classification of clouds were developed and tested. High Performance Computing parallel processing algorithms were also investigated and tested. Artificial Neural Networks using imagery as inputs were trained on ground-based measurements of irradiance to model the variability and were tested to show some promise as a means for predicting irradiance variability.