Dynamic Factor Graphs: A New Wind Power Forecasting Approach

Abstract

Wind energy production is characterized by high uncertainty due to the random nature of wind speed, which is weather dependent. Thus, in power systems with a significant penetration of wind generators, the problem of studying the impact of wind farms on the performance of these systems has to be considered in detail and requires the availability of accurate wind power forecasting methods. In addition, the time horizons to be taken into account as references for such studies are becoming more and more variable (from a few hours to a few days) due to the needs of liberalized electricity markets.