Verification Challenges at Low Numbers

Abstract

This paper will explore the difficulties of deep reductions by examining the technical verification challenges. At each step on the road to low numbers, the verification required to ensure compliance of all parties will increase significantly. Looking post New START, the next step will likely include warhead limits in the neighborhood of 1000 (Pifer 2010). Further reductions will include stepping stones at 100’s of warheads, and then 10’s of warheads before final elimination could be considered of the last few remaining warheads and weapons. This paper will focus on these three threshold reduction levels, 1000, 100’s, 10’s. For each, the issues and challenges will be discussed, potential solutions will be identified, and the verification technologies and chain of custody measures that address these solutions will be surveyed. It is important to note that many of the issues that need to be addressed have no current solution. In these cases, the paper will explore new or novel technologies that could be applied. These technologies will draw from the research and development that is ongoing throughout the national lab complex, and will look at technologies utilized in other areas of industry for their application to arms control verification.