Phenomena-based Uncertainty Quantification in Predictive Coupled- Physics Reactor Simulations

Abstract

This project has sought to develop methodologies, tailored to phenomena that govern nuclearreactor behavior, to produce predictions (including uncertainties) for quantities of interest (QOIs) in the simulation of steady-state and transient reactor behavior. Examples of such predictions include, for each QOI, an expected value as well as a distribution around this value and an assessment of how much of the distribution stems from each major source of uncertainty. The project has sought to test its methodologies by comparing against measured experimental outcomes. The main experimental platform has been a 1-MW TRIGA reactor. This is a flexible platform for a wide range of experiments, including steady state with and without temperature feedback, slow transients with and without feedback, and rapid transients with strong feedback. The original plan was for the primary experimental data to come from in-core neutron detectors. We made considerable progress toward this goal but did not get as far along as we had planned. We have designed, developed, installed, and tested vertical guide tubes, each able to accept a detector or stack of detectors that can be moved axially inside the tube, and we have tested several new detector designs. One of these shows considerable promise.