A Monte Carlo Rectangle Packing Algorithm for Identifying Likely Spatial Distributions of Final Closure Cap Subsidence in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility

Abstract

A Monte Carlo rectangle packing algorithm, summarized in Figure ES-1, has been developed to provide insights into the likely spatial distribution of subsided areas or holes in the final closure cap for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) resulting from the placement of non-crushable waste containers within slit and engineered trench disposal units. Using historical records provided by Solid Waste Management as an indicator of future waste streams, a probability distribution of unique waste containers was constructed, and Monte Carlo sampling was used to sequentially select waste containers for placement in a rectangular region bounded by the disposal unit footprint. Within this Monte Carlo approach, the probability of any container type being selected is weighted by the fractional abundance relative to all other container types. For each Monte Carlo realization, the frequency of non-crushable waste containers appearing at each location on a spatially discretized mesh is updated. After many realizations, the location(s) with the highest frequencies of non-crushable waste containers are regarded as the most likely locations to experience subsidence (i.e., for a hole to form). Utilizing this approach has enabled the down-selection of a computationally intractable set of subsidence hole combinations to be explored in three-dimensional finite element groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. Such an approach can be applied to a number of different packaging problems.