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DOE OSTI · 1650798

System and method for modeling and forecasting cyclical demand systems with dynamic controls and dynamic incentives

Ghosh, Soumyadip·Hosking, Jonathan R. M.·Natarajan, Ramesh·Subramanian, Shivaram·Zhang, Xiaoxuan
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Abstract

Systems and methods for modeling and forecasting cyclical demand systems in the presence of dynamic control or dynamic incentives. A method for modeling a cyclical demand system comprises obtaining historical data on one or more demand measurements over a plurality of demand cycles, obtaining historical data on incentive signals over the plurality of demand cycles, constructing a model using the obtained historical data on the one or more demand measurements and the incentive signals, wherein constructing the model comprises specifying a state-space model, specifying variance parameters in the model, and estimating unknown variance parameters.

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Ghosh, Soumyadip, Hosking, Jonathan R. M., Natarajan, Ramesh, Subramanian, Shivaram, Zhang, Xiaoxuan. 2020-04-21. System and method for modeling and forecasting cyclical demand systems with dynamic controls and dynamic incentives. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1650798

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