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DOE OSTI · 1660216

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

Bush, Brian·Hanes, Rebecca·Hunter, Chad·Hughes, Caroline·Mann, Margaret·Newes, Emily·Baldwin, Sam·Arent, Douglas·Baker, Erin·Clarke, Leon·Gabriel, Steve·Henrion, Max·Klemun, Magdalena·Marangoni, Giacomo·Nemet, Gregory·Newman, Alexandra·Paich, Mark·Popper, Steven·Way, Rupert
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Abstract

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATIONexpert elicitationportfolio analysisstochastic optimizationtechnology modeling

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Bush, Brian, Hanes, Rebecca, Hunter, Chad, Hughes, Caroline, Mann, Margaret, Newes, Emily, Baldwin, Sam, Arent, Douglas, Baker, Erin, Clarke, Leon, Gabriel, Steve, Henrion, Max, Klemun, Magdalena, Marangoni, Giacomo, Nemet, Gregory, Newman, Alexandra, Paich, Mark, Popper, Steven, Way, Rupert. 2020-09-01. Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report). https://doi.org/10.2172/1660216

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