National Ignition Campaign Data Analysis by an ICF Outsider

Abstract

A simple DT burn model, with no alpha-particle warming feedback, using a combination of ICF inputs and the measured ion temperature, T, volume compression, C, ablator velocity, v, and burn width time, Δt, can reproduce the national-ignition campaign (NIC) fusion yields with a rms percent difference of ~40%. Analysis suggestion the fusion-yield reproducibility of NIC events with nominally identically measured T, C, v, and Δt is <30%. The highest fusion yields, at a fixed laser energy are obtained with depleted-uranium (DU) hohlraums and high-density carbon (HDC) ablators. Small diameter fit tubes (≤5 μm) enhance fusion yields by an average of 26±15% relative to 10-μm diameter fit tubes. A dependence of fusion yield on the diameter of the capsule relative to the diameter of the hohlraum is inferred for fixed T, C, v, and Δt. No evidence of conditions close to ignition, or alpha-particle warming is found in the existing NIC data with LEH< 2MJ. To obtain a predictive model for extrapolation proposes we map the T, C, and v into power laws as a function of LEH. The above mentioned extrapolatable model has a rms percent difference from the yields of the second half of the NIC of (56 ± 4)%. Higher (and significantly lower) DT temperatures are obtained with HDC ablators (and low-foot drives). The highest compressions are obtained via low-foot drives, but this does not compensate for the corresponding lower temperatures. An extrapolation of the presented model suggests significant alpha-particle heating at an LEH of ~5 MJ. It is hoped that others more familiar it the conditions needed for ignition will use to presented model to estimate the LEH required for ignition.