Transfer Operator Framework for Earth System Predictability and Water Cycle Extremes

Abstract

For chaotic dynamical systems, nonlinear instabilities lead to exponentially divergent trajectories in the evolution of system states. Unless a simulation is initialized with an infinite-precision snapshot of the state of the true system and all known physical effects that go into its evolution are directly computed, the future state predicted by the simulation will quickly diverge from that of the true system. Moreover, the Earth system is highly structured and contains localized coherent structures that are particularly important to predict. Predicting extreme events associated with coherent structures, like hurricanes and blocking events, is crucial for understanding the effects of global warming on the water cycle.