EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

Abstract

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.