Surrogate Model of Flexible Research Platform EnergyPlus Models to Enable Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

This letter report describes the surrogate models developed from the EnergyPlus model of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform. Two data-driven black-box models were developed, and the outputs of the surrogate models were compared with the EnergyPlus model. The two models developed are a multilayer perceptron deep learning model, and a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model. The three factors for selecting the black-box models are scalability, computation time, and accuracy. A total of 107 input variables were the dominant variables in determining the outputs of building energy consumptions and thermal comfort. A total of 54 output variables were identified as the prediction targets, including the system- and zone-level outputs. The large set of the simulation cases were generated by integrating sensor errors into an emulator based on EnergyPlus and Python EMS, which includes advanced control sequences from ASHRAE Guideline 36-2018: High-Performance Sequences of Operation. The surrogate models were developed based on a set of large-scale simulation runs (i.e., 4,000 runs) on a cloud platform. The comparison analysis shows that the two black-box models had good accuracy for predicting new outputs for sensitivity analysis using the root mean square error metric. As a next step, the developed surrogate models will be used to perform sensitivity analysis for different sensor impacts (e.g., sensor types, sensor locations).