CMIP6 Models Underestimate the Holton‐Tan Effect

Abstract

Abstract The teleconnection between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Arctic polar vortex is investigated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. Output from 14 CMIP6 models is compared with reanalysis, three experiments with prescribed QBOs, one of which has no free polar stratospheric variability, and transient experiments in which a QBO is prescribed in runs previously devoid of a QBO. Each CMIP6 model underestimates the Holton‐Tan effect (HTE), the weakening of the polar vortex expected with QBO easterlies in the tropical lower stratosphere. To establish why, potential vorticity maps are used to investigate longitudinal variations in the teleconnection. Prescribing easterly QBO in the transient experiments promotes more high‐latitude planetary wave breaking by influencing the mid‐latitude stratospheric circulation, particularly over Asia. CMIP6 models that better simulate this response over Asia better simulate the HTE. These models also have stronger 10 hPa QBO westerlies.