Characterizing vertical upper ocean temperature structures in the European Arctic through unsupervised machine learning

Abstract

In-situ observations of subsurface ocean temperatures are, in many regions, inconsistently distributed in time and space. These spatio-temporal inconsistencies in the observational network lead to difficulties in utilizing those observations effectively for ocean model evaluation or understanding larger-scale ocean characteristics. Model accuracy of subsurface ocean characteristics is especially important within regions that contain complex ocean structures. One such region is the European Arctic which not only contains several types of water masses with unique characteristics, but also wintertime sea ice coverage and complex bathymetry. This study presents an unsupervised neural networking technique that can be used in combination with traditional ocean model evaluation techniques to provide additional information on the accuracy of modeled vertical ocean temperature profiles. Self-organizing maps is an unsupervised machine learning technique that we apply to approximately twenty thousand Argo and CTD temperature profiles from 2012 to 2020 in the European Arctic to categorize the observed vertical ocean temperature structures in the top 150 m. The observed ocean profile categories, or neurons, defined by the self-organizing map show strong spatial and temporal dependencies. We then use the neuron weights, or the learned temperature profile structure of each neuron, to validate the spatial and temporal variability of modeled vertical temperature structures. This analysis gives us new insights about the model’s capabilities to reproduce specific vertical structures of the top-most ocean layer within different regions and seasons. Mapping modeled ocean temperature profiles onto the neuron-space of the observationally-defined self organized map highlights the potential of this method to advance our understanding of model deficiencies in that region.