A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Villa, Daniel L.; Schostek, Tyler; Govertsen, Krissy; Macmillan, Madeline

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105663

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A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Villa, Daniel L.·Schostek, Tyler·Govertsen, Krissy·Macmillan, Madeline

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Abstract

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY Building energy modeling Climate change Duration and intensity Extreme temperatures Heat waves Infrastructure Resilience Stochastic models Shifts in frequency Stochastic modeling building energy modeling climate change duration and intensity extreme temperatures heat waves infrastructure resilience stochastic models shifts in frequency stochastic modeling

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Villa, Daniel L., Schostek, Tyler, Govertsen, Krissy, Macmillan, Madeline. 2023-03-07. A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105663

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