A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

Abstract

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.