Nuclear data uncertainty propagation in a lattice physics code using stochastic sampling

Abstract

A methodology is presented for 'black box' nuclear data uncertainty propagation in a lattice physics code using stochastic sampling. The methodology has 4 components: i) processing nuclear data variance/covariance matrices including converting the native group structure to a group structure 'compatible' with the lattice physics code, ii) generating (relative) random samples of nuclear data, iii) perturbing the lattice physics code nuclear data according to the random samples, and iv) analyzing the distribution of outputs to estimate the uncertainty. The scheme is described as implemented at PSI, in a modified version of the lattice physics code CASMO-5M, including all relevant practical details. Uncertainty results are presented for a BWR pin-cell at hot zero power conditions and a PWR assembly at hot full power conditions with depletion. Results are presented for uncertainties in eigenvalue, 1-group microscopic cross sections, 2-group macroscopic cross sections, and isotopics. Interesting behavior is observed with burnup, including a minimum uncertainty due to the presence of fertile U-238 and a global effect described as 'synergy', observed when comparing the uncertainty resulting from simultaneous and one-at-a-time variations of nuclear data. (authors)