Observing the next galactic supernova

Abstract

No supernova (SN) in the Milky Way has been observed since the invention of the optical telescope, instruments for other wavelengths, neutrino detectors, or gravitational wave observatories. It would be a tragedy to miss the opportunity to fully characterize the next one. To aid preparations for its observations, we model the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions of a successful Galactic core-collapse supernova (ccSN), its shock breakout radiation, and its massive star progenitor. We find, at very high probability (≅ 100%), that the next Galactic SN will easily be detectable in the near-IR and that near-IR photometry of the progenitor star very likely (≅ 92%) already exists in the Two Micron All Sky Survey. Most ccSNe (98%) will be easily observed in the optical, but a significant fraction (43%) will lack observations of the progenitor due to a combination of survey sensitivity and confusion. If neutrino detection experiments can quickly disseminate a likely position (∼3°), we show that a modestly priced IR camera system can probably detect the shock breakout radiation pulse even in daytime (64% for the cheapest design). Neutrino experiments should seriously consider adding such systems, both for their scientific return and as an added and internal layer of protection against false triggers. We find that shock breakouts from failed ccSNe of red supergiants may be more observable than those of successful SNe due to their lower radiation temperatures. We review the process by which neutrinos from a Galactic ccSN would be detected and announced. We provide new information on the EGADS system and its potential for providing instant neutrino alerts. We also discuss the distance, extinction, and magnitude probability distributions for the next Galactic Type Ia supernova (SN Ia). Based on our modeled observability, we find a Galactic ccSN rate of 3.2{sub −2.6}{sup +7.3} per century and a Galactic SN Ia rate of 1.4{sub −0.8}{sup +1.4} per century for a total Galactic SN rate of 4.6{sub −2.7}{sup +7.4} per century is needed to account for the SNe observed over the last millennium, which implies a Galactic star formation rate of 3.6{sub −3.0}{sup +8.3} M {sub ☉} yr{sup –1}.