Predicting Future Solar Modulation and Implementation in MCNP6

Abstract

The application of detecting low level radiation in the field requires quantification of the natural radiation background specific to that location. This background is made up two primary components: naturally decaying radionuclides in the soil and atmosphere known as terrestrial background, and the particle cascades caused by high energy cosmic radiation interacting within the earth's atmosphere known as cosmic background. The terrestrial component dominates the background spectrum below approximately 2 MeV, however, the cosmic component comprises the entirety of the high-energy spectrum. Furthermore, the terrestrial component is relatively constant for a given location while the cosmic component is heavily dependent on solar activity, an effect known as solar modulation. Annual values of the solar modulation parameter, φ, have been determined since 1936, and their fluctuations are seen to be roughly sinusoidal over time. If one wished to predict or simulate the outcome of an experiment in the future, a prediction for the solar modulation would be necessary to accurately determine the cosmic background contribution. The previous version 6.1.1 of MCNP contained solar modulation data for 46 years between 1960 and 2005. This data was updated with newer solar modulation data, from I. G. Usoskin et al., which reports solar modulation data for an additional 33 years between 1936 and 2014. In order to use past solar modulation data to predict cosmic background radiation fluctuations for dates beyond 2014 an algorithm was developed to forecast future solar modulation data based on the sinusoidal behavior exhibited in recorded data. This algorithm was implemented into MCNP 6.1.2 to be used for cosmic background simulations and tested against benchmark data to assess its accuracy. (authors)