Geophysical Constraints on Decarbonized Systems—Building Spatio-Temporal Uncertainties into Future Electricity Grid Planning

Abstract

Future electricity grids will be characterized by the high penetration of renewables to support the decarbonization process. Yet, this transition will further expose grids to a broad spectrum of geophysical forces, such as weather and climate, land and space, minerals and materials. Understanding their role is thus important to support the grid decarbonization process. Here, we synthesize the current body of knowledge on the relationship between geophysical constraints and electricity grid planning. Additionally, we show that there have been promising advances in the data, methods, and modelling tools needed to incorporate the effect of geophysical constraints on demand, resource availability, and grid operations. There are, however, multiple research avenues that deserve further attention. More system-specific and finer-scale analyses are necessary to better understand how spatio-temporal variability---and associated uncertainty---in geophysical forces affect grid planning. Moreover, we need a broader focus on the multi-sectoral implications of grid decarbonization efforts, so as to limit the risk of unintended consequences. Importantly, all these efforts are challenged by the computational requirements of existing power system models, which often limit our ability to characterize uncertainty, scale analyses across larger domains, or study the multi-sector implications of grid expansion decisions.