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DOE OSTI · 2462991

Uncertainty Quantification in GADRAS Inverse Modeling

Horne, Steven M.
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Abstract

The Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) package includes an inverse modeling tool that is helpful in identifying characteristics of unknown radioactive materials. Traditionally, uncertainties in this analysis were derived solely from measurement data quality and the fit of synthetic spectra. This paper aims to rigorously quantify additional sources of uncertainty, focusing on uncertainties arising from measurements being analyzed, Detector Response Function (DRF) characterization, and DRF extrapolation. Applying these findings to the BeRPBall benchmark data set, we demonstrated the impact of these uncertainties on plutonium and polyethylene estimates. The results underscore the importance of incorporating diverse uncertainty sources to enhance the accuracy and reliability of GADRAS’s inverse modeling capabilities.

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Horne, Steven M.. 2024-09-01. Uncertainty Quantification in GADRAS Inverse Modeling. https://doi.org/10.2172/2462991

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