DOE OSTI · 2480587
Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
Abstract
Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.
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Hogan, J. Aaron [USDA Forest Service, San Juan, PR (United States). International Institute of Tropical Forestry; Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000198063074), Lichstein, Jeremy W. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000155536142), Helmer, Eileen H. [USDA Forest Service, San Juan, PR (United States). International Institute of Tropical Forestry] (ORCID:0000000337310056), Craig, Matthew E. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000288907920), Fricke, Evan [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000205204200), Henrich, Viola [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom); Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam (HZP), (Germany). German Research Centre for GeoSciences] (ORCID:0000000305010032), Kannenberg, Steven A. [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV (United States)] (ORCID:0000000240979140), Koven, Charles D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000233670065), Goldewjik, Kees Klein [Utrecht University (Netherlands)] (ORCID:0000000327147507), Lapola, David M. [Univ. of Campinas (UNICAMP), Sao Paulo (Brazil)] (ORCID:0000000226547835), Li, Yue [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000329976368), Malhi, Yadvinder [Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)] (ORCID:0000000235034783), Quinn, John [Furman Univ., Greenville, SC (United States)] (ORCID:0000000183127223), Roe, Stephanie [World Wildlife Fund (WWF), Washington, DC (United States)] (ORCID:0000000238216435), Terrer, Cesar [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000254793486), Vilanova, Emilio [VERRA, Washington, DC (United States)] (ORCID:0000000162895127), Walker, Anthony P. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000305575594), Zhu, Kai [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)] (ORCID:0000000315873317), Ellis, Erle C. [Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), Baltimore, MD (United States)] (ORCID:0000000220063362). 2024-12-08. Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp3.10609
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