DOE OSTI · 2555912
Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations
Abstract
Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.
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Feng, Zhe [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA] (ORCID:0000000275409017), Prein, Andreas F. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zürich Zurich Switzerland] (ORCID:000000016250179X), Kukulies, Julia [NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA] (ORCID:0000000160840069), Fiolleau, Thomas [LEGOS CNES CNRS UPS IRD University of Toulouse Toulouse France] (ORCID:0000000159021701), Jones, William K. [University of Oxford Oxford UK] (ORCID:0000000197863723), Maybee, Ben [University of Leeds Leeds UK] (ORCID:0000000178349489), Moon, Zachary L. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, Earth Resources Technology, Inc. Laurel MD USA] (ORCID:0000000300190660), Núñez Ocasio, Kelly M. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, Texas A&,M University College Station TX USA] (ORCID:0000000304739382), Dong, Wenhao [University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA] (ORCID:0000000256625435), Molina, Maria J. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, University of Maryland College Park MD USA] (ORCID:0000000185398916), Albright, Mary Grace [University of Connecticut Storrs CT USA] (ORCID:0009000757567189), Rajagopal, Manikandan [University of Utah Salt Lake City UT USA] (ORCID:0000000151988563), Robledo, Vanessa [University of Iowa Iowa City IA USA] (ORCID:0000000287970928), Song, Jinyan [Ocean University of China Qingdao China] (ORCID:0000000333251888), Song, Fengfei [Ocean University of China Qingdao China, Laoshan Laboratory Qingdao China] (ORCID:0000000230041749), Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA] (ORCID:0000000232219467), Varble, Adam C. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA] (ORCID:0000000159267154), Klein, Cornelia [UK Centre for Ecology &, Hydrology Wallingford UK] (ORCID:0000000166860458), Roca, Remy [LEGOS CNES CNRS UPS IRD University of Toulouse Toulouse France] (ORCID:0000000318430204), Feng, Ran [University of Connecticut Storrs CT USA] (ORCID:0000000244334745), Mejia, John F. [Desert Research Institute Reno NV USA] (ORCID:0000000167275541). 2025-04-12. Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd042204
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