Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs

Wilczak, James M. (ORCID:0000000299126396); Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B. (ORCID:0000000198052674); Bloomfield, Hannah (ORCID:0000000256161503); Bracken, Cameron (ORCID:000000031917402X); Sharp, Justin (ORCID:0000000266485835)

doi:10.1063/5.0253058

DOE OSTI · 2563498

Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs

Wilczak, James M. (ORCID:0000000299126396)·Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B. (ORCID:0000000198052674)·Bloomfield, Hannah (ORCID:0000000256161503)·Bracken, Cameron (ORCID:000000031917402X)·Sharp, Justin (ORCID:0000000266485835)

View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This Perspective article provides a brief overview of the topic of wind and solar energy droughts (henceforth WSDs). It does not attempt to provide a complete literature review of the subject but rather highlights some of the main concepts associated with WSDs. These include wind and solar energy drought definitions and metrics; meteorological conditions producing WSDs; a comparison of their characteristics with hydrologic droughts and hydropower droughts; model-based and observational datasets useful for WSD analyses; the linkage of WSDs to transmission, storage, and demand response; the potential impacts of WSDs vs energy demand variations; wind and solar flood events; WSD predictability; WSD dependency on climate modes of variability; climate change impacts on WSDs; and the special challenge of evaluating the characteristics of WSDs in developing countries that have limited historical data available. Finally, the manuscript identifies research areas that the authors believe would provide immediate benefit to energy system planners.

Explore related subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY 17 WIND ENERGY

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Wilczak, James M. (ORCID:0000000299126396), Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B. (ORCID:0000000198052674), Bloomfield, Hannah (ORCID:0000000256161503), Bracken, Cameron (ORCID:000000031917402X), Sharp, Justin (ORCID:0000000266485835). 2025-04-28. Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0253058

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related reports

DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Sensitivity-driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tool for High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources (IBR)

Traditionally, power system generation sources have been composed of synchronous generators, of which the fault current behavior is understood with minimal differences between generation size and types due to the physics of their construction. Present protection schemes and modeling methods are based upon these understood characteristics. Most renewable generation is composed of inverter-based resources (IBR), in which fault current is determined by switching control software and hardware limitations, each of which can vary between manufacturers and even between models of the same manufacturer. The resulting fault current is low in magnitude, low in negative-sequence current, unpredictable phase angles, and is a challenge to model. These characteristics also result in a challenge to traditional protection schemes and fault simulation software. To address several of these concerns, the project has the following goals: 1. Improve IBR models: Improve IBR models used in short circuit (SC) programs to accurately capture the response of IBRs at the bulk power system (BPS) level for fault and protection studies. 2. Develop automation tool: Develop an automation tool that allows engineers to identify protection coordination and sensitivity issues by performing SC and protection coordination studies in a high IBR-penetrated grid by applying variations to the IBR models, faults, contingencies, etc. 3. Develop schemes: Develop new protection mitigation solution schemes that complement the existing protection systems to ensure safe operation of the BPS with higher IBR penetration levels. The project team did not achieve this final goal, as the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped the project early due to changes in DOE funding priorities. The termination notice came at the beginning of the final project phase, while the team was identifying and beginning to investigate protection issues. It should be noted that the team discussed a 100% penetration scenario. However, this scenario would require the use of grid-forming IBR models that are not presently available. Since developing these models requires additional effort, the 100% penetration scenario was not pursued during this project. In the future, developing the methodology and models for the 100% scenario could benefit the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Analysis Round Robin of a Retrofit of the Ivanpah Concentrating Solar Plant with a Molten-Salt System with Thermal Energy Storage

While the fidelity of technoeconomic analysis (TEA) models for concentrating solar thermal systems has improved in recent years, there is a lack of consensus on the specific inputs used to forecast performance of a newly built tower system due to a lack of validations and post-mortems available to the public. This effort is a joint initiative between multiple international organizations to validate and compare their TEA models. The specific case study is a proposed retrofit of one unit of the Ivanpah Solar Energy Generating System to include molten-salt storage, replacing the steam generation system with a molten-salt receiver, salt-to-steam heat exchanger train, and new balance of plant while keeping the existing steam turbine, solar field, and interconnection in place, using plant data for calibration. This manuscript discusses several of the agreed-upon assumptions for this study as well as a preliminary analysis from prior work that motivates the study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗