HD ADOPT: Heavy-Duty Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

Abstract

HD ADOPT is a logit consumer vehicle choice and stock model that analyzes the Class 8 tractor market. The model projects future technology shares, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under input assumptions of technology progress, energy prices, and policies. ADOPT is distinguished from other vehicle choice models through inclusion of non-linear and heterogenous consumer preferences and characterization of the full range of market options rather than use of composite vehicles. In addition, ADOPT has integrated vehicle simulation capabilities that enable performance assessment and optimization of endogenous technology evolution. Optionally, the model is able to adjust this evolution to enforce compliance with fuel economy and GHG emissions regulations. Primary results include projection of technology shares and future in-use fleet energy demand, petroleum consumption, and GHG emissions. This enables analysis and comparison of future scenarios of technology improvements, economic conditions, and national policies. Recent new features for the HD modeling also enable examination of different on-board hydrogen fuel storage technologies from the lens of consumer preferences for vehicle cost and range. This report documents current ADOPT capabilities and methodologies.