DOE OSTI · 2997271
Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events
Abstract
Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.
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Gao, Yang [Ocean University of China, Qingdao (China)] (ORCID:0000000164446544), Guo, Xiaojie [Ocean University of China, Qingdao (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)] (ORCID:0009000747936315), Lu, Jian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000182456930), Woolings, Tim [University of Oxford (United Kingdom)] (ORCID:0000000258159079), Chen, Deliang [Tsinghua University, Beijing (China); University of Gothenburg (Sweden)] (ORCID:0000000302885618), Guo, Xiuwen [Ocean University of China, Qingdao (China)], Kou, Wenbin [Ocean University of China, Qingdao (China)], Zhang, Shaoqing [Ocean University of China, Qingdao (China)] (ORCID:0000000165699842), Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000232219467), Schiemann, Reinhard [University of Reading (United Kingdom)] (ORCID:0000000330959856), O'Reilly, Christopher H. [University of Reading (United Kingdom)], Guo, Chuncheng [NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bergen (Norway). Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research; Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen (Denmark). National Centre for Climate Research] (ORCID:0000000162766499), Li, Jianping [University of Gothenburg (Sweden)] (ORCID:0000000306251575), Gao, Huiwang [Ocean University of China, Qingdao (China)] (ORCID:0000000242740811), Wu, Lixin [Ocean University of China, Qingdao (China)]. 2025-02-01. Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd042045
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