Inverse aqueous transport modeling for emergency response

Abstract

ALGE is a three-dimensional, finite-difference aqueous transport model that simulates pollutant fate and transport in lakes, rivers, bays, and estuaries by solving the prognostic equations of mass, momentum, and energy. Its current modeling capabilities include transport of dissolved tracer for a series of predefined basins across the continental United States. Recently, an inverse method (also known as backtracking) has been added to ALGE to provide a possible source of a pollutant should one be detected by a sensor in a body of water and a source is not known. This inverse method is a three step process that uses an algorithm to inverse the flow. We demonstrate the new model’s capabilities through simulating the 2021 Piney Point spill in Tampa Bay, Florida (USA). This involves moving tracer backwards from its detection points, encompassing a potential source area, and applying Bayes’ Theorem and $\frac{𝜒}{𝑄}$ to reduce the area within which the true source could be located.