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DOE OSTI · 3016092

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Trancik, Jessika [Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Santa Fe Institute]·Baker, Erin [University of Massachusetts Amherst]·Nemet, Gregory [University of Wisconsin-Madison]·Klemun, Magdalena [Johns Hopkins University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology]·Hanes, Rebecca [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000215585887)·Surana, Kavita [Complexity Science Hub Vienna; University of Maryland, College Park; Vienna University of Economics and Business]·Arent, Doug [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)]·Baldwin, Samuel [Consultant]·Gabriel, Steven [Aalto University; Norwegian University of Science & Technology; University of Maryland, College Park]·Popper, Steven [Monterrey Institute of Technology & Higher Education]·Bosetti, Valentina [Bocconi University; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment]·Henrion, Max [Lumina Decision Systems]·Marangoni, Giacomo [Delft University of Technology; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment]·Way, Rupert [University of Oxford]
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Abstract

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

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Trancik, Jessika [Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Santa Fe Institute], Baker, Erin [University of Massachusetts Amherst], Nemet, Gregory [University of Wisconsin-Madison], Klemun, Magdalena [Johns Hopkins University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology], Hanes, Rebecca [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000215585887), Surana, Kavita [Complexity Science Hub Vienna; University of Maryland, College Park; Vienna University of Economics and Business], Arent, Doug [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)], Baldwin, Samuel [Consultant], Gabriel, Steven [Aalto University; Norwegian University of Science & Technology; University of Maryland, College Park], Popper, Steven [Monterrey Institute of Technology & Higher Education], Bosetti, Valentina [Bocconi University; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment], Henrion, Max [Lumina Decision Systems], Marangoni, Giacomo [Delft University of Technology; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment], Way, Rupert [University of Oxford]. 2025-11-24. Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01867-w

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