Measuring impacts of California agri-environmental programs using field-scale satellite data

Abstract

In the past decade, California has invested over $\$$200 million in direct grants to growers to support the adoption of agricultural practices that save water and/or improve soil health while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Ex-post evaluation of agri-environmental outcomes of these grant programs, however, is limited. We use satellite data to monitor changes in field-level consumptive water use and greenness (i.e. normalized difference vegetation index), a proxy for agricultural productivity, for the most frequently funded crop-types (almonds, grapes, and walnuts) in two California Department of Food and Agriculture programs. Nearly 600 fields receiving funding during the 2014–2022 period were analyzed using two causal inference methods. Fields that received grants to both upgrade irrigation systems and install irrigation water management sensors showed reduced consumptive water use and greenness by an average of 3.5% and 4.2%, respectively (significant at the 10% level). In contrast, we find that the adoption of only irrigation water management sensors, which are designed to inform irrigation scheduling and management, resulted in an average increase of 4.1% and 4.8% in consumptive water use and greenness respectively (significant at the 5% level). We find negligible effects for either consumptive water use or greenness when both pump efficiency upgrades and sensors were implemented. We further find that grants for compost addition and cover cropping led to small greenness increases of 1.7% and 2.8% respectively (significant at the 10% level) and had insignificant effects on consumptive water use. Our analysis of five agri-environmental program interventions reveals that several practice outcomes may be at odds with stated program goals of reducing water use while maintaining or improving agricultural productivity.