DOE OSTI · 3029113
Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations
Abstract
From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m −2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m −2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m −2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m −2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.
Explore related subjects
Keep this discovery
Explore connections, maps & timelines
Ceppi, Paulo [Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)] (ORCID:0000000237543506), Wilson Kemsley, Sarah [University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); University of Oxford (United Kingdom)] (ORCID:0000000276525060), Andersen, Hendrik [Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)] (ORCID:0000000329838838), Andrews, Timothy [United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); University of Leeds (United Kingdom)], Kramer, Ryan J. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory] (ORCID:0000000293770674), Nowack, Peer [Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)] (ORCID:0000000345887832), Wall, Casey J. [Stockholm University (Sweden)] (ORCID:0000000176825576), Zelinka, Mark D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000265705445). 2026-03-26. Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026
Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.