DOE OSTI · 3029304
Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design
Abstract
The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.
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Fridlind, Ann M. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)] (ORCID:0000000290200852), Elsaesser, Gregory S. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)], van Lier-Walqui, Marcus [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)], Cesana, Grégory V. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)], Weatherhead, Elizabeth [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)], Tselioudis, George [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)], Schmidt, Gavin [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)], Barahona, Donifan [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)], Cairns, Brian [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)], Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)], Considine, David B. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States)], Cucurull, Lidia [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), College Park MD (United States)], DiGirolamo, Larry [Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)], Emory, Amber [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States)], Hasekamp, Otto [Space Research Organisation Netherlands (SRON), Leiden (Netherlands)], He, Shan [State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Stony Brook, NY (United States)], Kramer, Ryan [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory], Lebsock, Matthew [California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)], Lee, Tsengdar [National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Washington, DC (United States)], Leroy, Stephen [Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), Lexington, MA (United States)], Lin, Wuyin [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)] (ORCID:0000000233929954), Lugauer, Steven [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States)], Miller, Daniel [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), Baltimore, MD (United States)], Mülmenstädt, Johannes [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)], Oreopoulos, Lazaros [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)], Posselt, Derek J. [California Institute of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)], Zelinka, Mark D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)]. 2026-03-01. Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0242.1
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