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DOE OSTI · 3366100

Quantifying market volume sensitivity to material property modifications in polyhydroxybutyrate: A parametric analysis approach

Bower, Courtney [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)] (ORCID:0009000697214938)·Patelli, Paolo [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)] (ORCID:0000000175269467)·Marrone, Babetta L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)] (ORCID:0000000150021289)·Kubic, William L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)]
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Abstract

Polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), a biodegradable biopolymer, represents a promising alternative to petroleum-based thermoplastics. However, despite consistent market growth, PHB faces persistent commercialization challenges that limit widespread adoption. Existing research has focused predominantly on optimizing PHB production processes, leaving a critical gap in understanding which material property modifications would most effectively enhance market competitiveness. This study addresses this gap by systematically analyzing the relationship between polymer material properties and market performance using U.S. market data from 2008 to 2021 for 21 thermoplastic polymers across 19 material properties. We employed principal component regression to identify property modifications that could maximize market volume while reducing CO 2 emissions. Our parametric analysis revealed that two specific material properties – Hardness Shore A and Sheet Extrusion Temperature – significantly influence PHB marketability across different price points. Market simulations demonstrated that a 10% increase in Hardness Shore A could increase PHB market volume by 431.5 million kg while reducing emissions by 188.7 kg CO 2 . A similar 10% increase to Sheet Extrusion Temperature could yield a 297.5 million kg volume increase and a 99.2 kg CO 2 reduction in emissions. Critically, this approach is agnostic to the specific methods required to achieve these property changes, instead providing material scientists with quantitative, data-driven targets for R&D prioritization. Here, this framework offers a novel methodology for evaluating biopolymer competitiveness and supporting strategic decisions to accelerate PHB market adoption and contribute to decarbonization of the plastics industry.

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09 BIOMASS FUELS29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTINGBiopolymersDecarbonizationMarket AnalysisPolyhydroxybutyratePrincipal Component Regression

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Bower, Courtney [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)] (ORCID:0009000697214938), Patelli, Paolo [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)] (ORCID:0000000175269467), Marrone, Babetta L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)] (ORCID:0000000150021289), Kubic, William L. [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)]. 2026-03-11. Quantifying market volume sensitivity to material property modifications in polyhydroxybutyrate: A parametric analysis approach. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.147851

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