DOE OSTI · 3367525
Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands
Abstract
Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.
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Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)] (ORCID:0000000308991139), Poulter, Benjamin [Spark Climate Solutions, San Francisco, CA (United States)], Wang, Zhenxuan [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)] (ORCID:0009000678342520), Bruhwiler, Lori [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML)], Canadell, Josep G. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT (Australia)] (ORCID:0000000287883218), Gedney, Nicola [United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Wallingford (United Kingdom). Hadley Centre] (ORCID:0000000221655239), Ito, Akihiko [University of Tokyo (Japan)] (ORCID:0000000152650791), Jackson, Robert B. [Stanford University, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000188467147), Melton, Joe R. [Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), Victoria, BC (Canada)] (ORCID:000000029414064X), Peng, Changhui [University of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Canada); Hunan Normal University, Changsha (China)] (ORCID:0000000320378097), Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000246152304), Saunois, Marielle [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE); Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)], Wiltshire, Andy [United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); University of Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom)] (ORCID:000000017307173X), Zhang, Qian [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)], Zhu, Qing [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)] (ORCID:000000032441944X), Zhu, Qiuan [Hohai University, Nanjing (China)] (ORCID:0000000222466325), Li, Xin [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)] (ORCID:0000000329999818). 2026-05-19. Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01987-2
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