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DOE OSTI · 3384963

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Stemkovski, Michael [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)] (ORCID:000000029854887X)·Cortez, Michael H. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000325557684)·Bernhardt, Joey R. [Univ. of Guelph, ON (Canada)] (ORCID:0000000318242801)·Bladen, Kelvyn K. [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)] (ORCID:0000000220285504)·Bradford, John B. [US Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000192576303)·Clark‐Wolf, Kyra [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000345840348)·Evans, Margaret E. K. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000332203382)·Johnson, Loretta C. [Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS (United States)] (ORCID:0000000289897779)·Lynch, Abigail J. [US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000184498392)·Pastore, Melissa A. [USDA Forest Service, St. Paul, MN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000274651418)·Pinsky, Malin L. [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000285238952)·Rollinson, Christine R. [Morton Arboretum, Lisle, IL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000301817293)·Selmoni, Oliver [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000309045486)·Walker, Anthony P. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000305575594)·Williams, John W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)] (ORCID:0000000160469634)·Adler, Peter B. [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)] (ORCID:0000000242164009)
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Abstract

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

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climate changecommunity climate nichecommunity turnoverecological acclimationlagsnonstationaryspecies compositiontimescaletransient dynamics

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BibTeXRIS

Stemkovski, Michael [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)] (ORCID:000000029854887X), Cortez, Michael H. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000325557684), Bernhardt, Joey R. [Univ. of Guelph, ON (Canada)] (ORCID:0000000318242801), Bladen, Kelvyn K. [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)] (ORCID:0000000220285504), Bradford, John B. [US Geological Survey, Flagstaff, AZ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000192576303), Clark‐Wolf, Kyra [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000345840348), Evans, Margaret E. K. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)] (ORCID:0000000332203382), Johnson, Loretta C. [Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS (United States)] (ORCID:0000000289897779), Lynch, Abigail J. [US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000184498392), Pastore, Melissa A. [USDA Forest Service, St. Paul, MN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000274651418), Pinsky, Malin L. [Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000285238952), Rollinson, Christine R. [Morton Arboretum, Lisle, IL (United States)] (ORCID:0000000301817293), Selmoni, Oliver [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000309045486), Walker, Anthony P. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000305575594), Williams, John W. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)] (ORCID:0000000160469634), Adler, Peter B. [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)] (ORCID:0000000242164009). 2026-01-23. Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70314

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Climate Change subjectcommunity climate niche subjectcommunity turnover subjectecological acclimation subjectlags subjectnonstationary subjectspecies composition subjecttimescale subjecttransient dynamics subject

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