Evaluating Technology Adoption Risks in Early-Stage Materials Research

Abstract

Development of new technologies often begins with fundamental materials science research. Decisions at this stage can shape factors related to the eventual adoption readiness of the technology, such as process scalability or materials availability. Here we present the early-Stage Technology Evaluation for Adoption Risks (STEAR) framework as a method for qualitatively assessing metrics spanning four categories of adoption risks: value proposition, market acceptance, resource maturity, and license to operate. We conduct a case study applying STEAR to different methanol production processes at a range of technology readiness levels and demonstrate how the assessment identifies key challenges related to adoption readiness. Finally, we discuss efforts to expand the applicability and utility of STEAR, including focus group feedback and complementary quantitative analysis methods.