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DOE OSTI · 3424514

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Yang, Jaemo [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)]·Sengupta, Manajit [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000156224503)·Xie, Yu [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)]
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Abstract

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION25 ENERGY STORAGE42 ENGINEERING97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTINGdynamical downscalingearth system modelinghigh-resolution future weather data

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Yang, Jaemo [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)], Sengupta, Manajit [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000156224503), Xie, Yu [National Laboratory of the Rockies, Golden, CO (United States)]. 2026-08-12. Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis. https://doi.org/10.66816/pr4459132

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