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DOE OSTI · 3613630

An Updated SynthPop Model for Microlensing Simulations. I. Model Description and Evaluation

McGill, Peter [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory]·Lu, Jessica [University of California Berkeley]·Lam, Casey·Crisp, Alison [The Ohio State University]·Newman, Marz·Patlak, Riley [University of California Berkeley]·Penny, Matthew [Louisiana State University]·Kluter, Jonas·Johnson, Samson·Smith, Leigh·Karkour, Victor·Abrams, Natasha [University of California Berkeley]·Fernandes, Rachel·Gaudi, Scott·McGee, Carissma·Calchi Novati, Sebastiano·Stassun, Keivan·Terry, Sean·Verma, Himanshu·Zohrabi, Farzaneh
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McGill, Peter [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory], Lu, Jessica [University of California Berkeley], Lam, Casey, Crisp, Alison [The Ohio State University], Newman, Marz, Patlak, Riley [University of California Berkeley], Penny, Matthew [Louisiana State University], Kluter, Jonas, Johnson, Samson, Smith, Leigh, Karkour, Victor, Abrams, Natasha [University of California Berkeley], Fernandes, Rachel, Gaudi, Scott, McGee, Carissma, Calchi Novati, Sebastiano, Stassun, Keivan, Terry, Sean, Verma, Himanshu, Zohrabi, Farzaneh. 2026-07-16. An Updated SynthPop Model for Microlensing Simulations. I. Model Description and Evaluation. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/ae8156

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DOE OSTI2026

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: a reanalysis of cosmology results and evidence for evolving dark energy with an updated Type Ia supernova calibration

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low-redshift surveys, retraining the salt3 light-curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host-galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises ~1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and ~200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain Ω m = 0.330 ± 0.015 in flat Lambda-cold dark matter (⁠ΛCDM) which changes Ω m by –0.022 compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with cosmic microwave background data from Planck, Atacama Cosmology Telescope, and South Pole Telescope and the DESI DR2 measurements in a flat CDM cosmology, we find ω 0 = –0.803 ± 0.054 and ω a = –0.72 ± 0.21⁠. Our results hold a significance of 3.2σ, reduced from 4.2σ for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the flat ω 0 ω a CDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

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