DOE OSTI · 3740783
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Garner, James [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000198721081). 2026-02-01. Balancing Opportunity and Risk of Onboard Machine Learning for The NGSS Successor. https://doi.org/10.2172/3740783
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Atomistic simulations have become indispensable tools for understanding glass structure, dynamics, and properties, yet persistent challenges limit their predictive power. This perspective examines three interconnected issues, namely glass formation procedures, interatomic potential development, and machine learning applications, which emerged from the 5th International Workshop on Challenges of Atomistic Simulations of Glasses and Amorphous Materials. We identify convergent community priorities for (i) standardized validation protocols, (ii) curated benchmark datasets with complete metadata, and (iii) open repositories for glasses. A systematic was forward is provided by a hierarchical validation framework for assessing the structural fidelity, property prediction, and behavioral realism of simulation techniques. Looking ahead, transformative advances are promised by the fusion of classical techniques with machine learning based approaches, for instance, by integrating swap Monte Carlo with machine-learning (ML) potentials, leveraging foundation models through transfer learning, and finetuning ML potentials with experimental data. Progress depends on the community committing to validated models, reproducible protocols, and sustained data sharing.
As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.