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NASA NTRS1994

Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

Taylor, Gregory E.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Tropical Ocean Evaporation/SST Sensitivity and It's Link to Water and Energy Budget Variations During ENSO

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system - changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus primarily on interannual variations of ocean evaporative fluxes and their significance for coupled water and energy cycles within the tropical climate system. In particular, we use both the da Silva estimates of surface fluxes (based on the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set, COADS) and numerical simulations from several global climate models to examine evaporation sensitivity to perturbations in SST associated with warm and cold ENSO events. The specific questions we address are as follows: (1) What recurring patterns of surface wind and humidity anomalies are present during ENSO and how do they combine to yield systematic evaporation anomalies?, (2) What is the resulting tropical ocean mean evaporation-SST sensitivity associated with this climate perturbation?, and (3) What role does this evaporation play in tropical heat and water balance over tropical oceanic regions? We use the da Silva ocean flux data to identify composite structure of departures of latent heat flux from climatology. We also show how these patterns arise out of associated wind and humidity anomaly distributions. Our preliminary work shows that evaporation sensitivity estimates from the da Silva / COADS data, computed for the tropical oceans (30 degrees N/S) are in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 W/square m K. Model estimates are also quite close to this figure. This rate is only slightly less than a rate corresponding to constant relative humidity; however, substantial regional departures from constant relative humidity are present. These patterns are robust and we relate the associated wind and humidity fluctuations noted in previous investigations to the derived evaporation anomalies. Finally, these results are interpreted with other data from the Earth radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and NASA's Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) data set to characterize the tropical energetics of ENSO-related climate variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The rigid shell component for superrotation in planetary atmospheres: Angular momentum budget, mechanical analog and simulation of the spin up process

An analysis of superrotation in the atmosphere of planets, with rotation axis perpendicular to the orbital plane is presented. As the atmosphere expands, Hadley cells develop producing a redistribution of mass and angular momentum. A three dimensional thermally driven zonally symmetric spectral model and Laplace transformation simulate the time evolution of a fluid leading from corotation under globally uniform heating to superrotation under globally nonuniform heating. For high viscosities the rigid shell component of atmospheric superrotation can be understood in analogy with a pirouette. During spin up angular momentum is transferred to the planet. For low iscosities, the process is reversed. A tendency toward geostrophy, combined with increase of surface pressure toward the poles (due to meridional mass transport), induces the atmosphere to subrotate temporarily at lower altitudes. Resultant viscous shear near the surface permits angular momentum to flow from the planet into the atmosphere propagating upwards to produce high altitude superrotation rates.

Mayr, H. G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Lauren C. Andrews↗

NASA NTRS1991

Triton's global heat budget

Internal heat flow from radioactive decay in Triton's interior along with absorbed thermal energy from Neptune total 5 to 20 percent of the insolation absorbed by Triton, thus comprising a significant fraction of Triton's surface energy balance. These additional energy inputs can raise Triton's surface temperature between approx. 0.5 to 1.5 K above that possible with absorbed sunlight alone, resulting in a factor of approx. 1.5 to 2.5 increase in Triton's basal atmospheric pressure. If Triton's internal heatflow is concentrated in some areas, as is likely, local effects such as enhanced sublimation with subsequent modification of albedo could be quite large. Furthermore, indications of recent albedo change on Triton suggest that Triton's surface temperature and pressure may not now be in steady state, further suggesting that atmospheric pressure on Triton was as much as 10 times higher in the recent past.

Brown, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Change in Oceanic O2 Inventory Associated with Recent Global Warming

Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O2 inventory and an associated O2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol O2 per Joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O2 solubility, indicating that most of the O2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O2 inventory through the 1990's is estimated to be 0.3 - 0.4 x 10(exp 14) mol O2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.

Keeling, Ralph↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Comparison of MERRA and NARR Reanalysis Datasets with the DOE ARM SGP Continuous Forcing data

In this study, the atmospheric state, precipitation, cloud fraction, and radiative fluxes from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) are collected and compared with the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) continuous forcing during the period 1999-2001. For the atmospheric state, the three datasets have excellent agreement for the horizontal wind components and air temperature. NARR and ARM have generally good agreement for humidity, except for several biases in the PBL and in the upper troposphere. MERRA, on the other hand, suffers from a year-round negative bias in humidity except for the month of June. For the vertical pressure velocity, significant differences exist with the largest biases occurring during the spring upwelling and summer downwelling periods. Although NARR and MERRA share many resemblances to each other, ARM outperforms these reanalyses in terms of correlation with cloud fraction. Because the ARM forcing is constrained by observed precipitation that gives the adequate mass, heat, and moisture budgets, much of the precipitation (specifically during the late spring/early summer) is caused by smaller-scale forcing that is not captured by the reanalyses. Both NARR and MERRA capture the seasonal variation of CF observed by ARM radar-lidar and GOES with high correlations (0.92-0.78), but having negative biases of 14% and 3%, respectively. Compared to the ARM observations, MERRA shows a better agreement for both SW and LW fluxes except for LW-down (due to a negative bias in water vapor), NARR has significant positive bias for SW-down and negative bias for LW-down under clear- and all-sky conditions . The NARR biases result from a combination of too few clouds and a lack of sufficient extinction by aerosols and water vapor in the atmospheric column. The results presented here represent only one location for a limited time period, and more comparisons at different locations and longer time period are needed.

Kennedy, Aaron D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Use of Geostationary Satellite Data to Force Land Surface Schemes within Atmospheric Mesoscale Models

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/NCAR MM5. Assimilation has been performed on a grid centered over the Southeastern US since November 1998. Results from the past year show that assimilation of the satellite data reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. These findings are based on comparison of assimilation runs with a control using the simple 5-layer soil model available in MM5. A significant development in the past several months was the inclusion of the detailed Oregon State University land surface model (OSU/LSM) as an option within MM5. One of our working hypotheses has been that the assimilation technique, although simple, may provide better short-term forecasts than a detailed LSM that requires significant number initialized parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the assimilation out performs the OSU/LSM as it is incorporated in MM5. Details will be presented at the symposium.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Environmental effects of large impacts on the earth; relation to extinction mechanisms

Since Alvarez et al., discovered a worldwide approx. cm-thick layer of fine sediments laden with platinum group elements in approximately chondritic proportions exactly at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (C-T) boundary, and proposed bolide-impact as triggering mass extinctions, many have studied this hypothesis and the layer itself with its associated spherules and shocked quartz. At issue is whether the mass extinctions, and this horizon has an impact versus volcanic origin. A critical feature of the Alvarez hypothesis is the suggestion that the bolide or possibly a shower of objects delivered to the earth approx. 0.6 x 10 to the 18th power g of material which resulted in aerosol-sized ejecta such that global insolation was drastically reduced for significant periods. Such an event would lower temperatures on continents and halt photosynthesis in the upper 200 m of th eocean. The latter would strangle the marine food chain and thus produce the major marine faunal extinctions which mark the C-T boundary. Crucial issues examined include: What are the dynamics of atmospheric flow occurring upon impact of a large bolide with the earth; What is the size distributions of the very fine impact ejecta and how do these compare to the models of ejecta which are used to model the earth's radiative thermal balance. The flow field due to passage of a 10 km diameter bolide through an exponential atmosphere and the interaction of the gas flow and bolide with the solid ear was calculated. The CO2 released upon impact onto shallow marine carbonate sections was modeled and found that the mass of CO2 released exceeds the present 10 to the 18th power g CO2 budget of the earth's atmosphere by several times. Using the calculations of Kasting and Toon it was found that to compute the temperature rise of the earth's surface as a function of CO2 content, it was found that sudden and prolonged global increases are induced from impact of 20 to 50 km radius projectiles and propose that sudden terrestrial greenhouse-induced heating, not cooling, produced the highly variable extinctions seen at the C-T boundary.

Okeefe, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Autonomous, Full-Time Cloud Profiling at Arm Sites with Micro Pulse Lidar

Since the early 1990's technology advances permit ground based lidar to operate full time and profile all significant aerosol and cloud structure of the atmosphere up to the limit of signal attenuation. These systems are known as Micro Pulse Lidars (MPL), as referenced by Spinhirne (1993), and were first in operation at DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. The objective of the ARM program is to improve the predictability of climate change, particularly as it relates to cloud-climate feedback. The fundamental application of the MPL systems is towards the detection of all significant hydrometeor layers, to the limit of signal attenuation. The heating and cooling of the atmosphere are effected by the distribution and characteristics of clouds and aerosol concentration. Aerosol and cloud retrievals in several important areas can only be adequately obtained with active remote sensing by lidar. For cloud cover, the height and related emissivity of thin clouds and the distribution of base height for all clouds are basic parameters for the surface radiation budget, and lidar is essetial for accurate measurements. The ARM MPL observing network represents the first long-term, global lidar study known within the community. MPL systems are now operational at four ARM sites. A six year data set has been obtained at the original Oklahoma site, and there are several years of observations at tropical and artic sites. Observational results include cloud base height distributions and aerosol profiles. These expanding data sets offer a significant new resource for cloud, aerosol and atmospheric radiation analysis. The nature of the data sets, data processing algorithms, derived parameters and application results are presented.

Spinhirne, James D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding The Top-Of-Atmosphere Fluxes Difference Between Aerocom Phase III Models And The CERES Product: Clear-Sky Perspective

The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project produces a long-term global climate data record (CDR) that can be used to detect decadal changes in the Earth’s radiation budget (ERB) from the surface to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA). The CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) product includes monthly mean shortwave (SW), longwave (LW), and net TOA all-sky and clear-sky radiative fluxes over 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude regions. The EBAF SW and LW fluxes are adjusted within their uncertainties to be consistent with the heat storage in the Earth-atmosphere system (Johnson et al. 2016). EBAF also provides a gap-free monthly mean clear-sky flux map by inferring clear-sky fluxes from both CERES and MODIS measurements (Loeb et al. 2018). In this study, we compare the TOA clear-sky fluxes from Aerocom phase III output with those from the CERES EBAF products. Flux differences over the ocean are generally smaller than over the land, and the magnitude of the differences shows seasonal and regional dependency. To understand the flux differences, aerosol optical depths (AOD) from the Aerocom models are compared with the satellite retrievals from MODIS and MISR. Over the ocean, the AOD differences and the flux differences show consistent regional features, indicating that the differences between models and observations are robust as the CERES EBAF clear-sky SW fluxes and MODIS/MISR AODs are determined independently. However, very little resemblance is found between the AOD and flux differences over the land. To further understand the cause of the flux differences over the land, we compare the land surface albedo from MODIS with the albedo from the models and find consistency in regional albedo differences and flux differences. Monthly regional radiative kernels of AOD and surface albedo derived using the MERRA-2 reanalysis data (Thorsen et al. 2020) are applied to AOD and surface albedo differences between models and observations. For most of the models, the AOD and surface albedo differences can explain most of the flux differences between models and CERES EBAF. The EOS era satellites have provided 20 years of carefully calibrated and validated observations that are suitable for trend analysis. Both the MODIS AOD and CERES EBAF clear-sky SW flux show decreasing trends over the coastal regions of eastern China and the eastern United States due to the emission control policies enforced in both countries, and an increasing trend off the coast of India. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends are less consistent over land, as the surface albedo changes complicate the clear-sky SW flux trend. The AOD and clear-sky SW flux trends from the Oslo model HIST run are also examined. However, none of the aforementioned regional trends are found in the model results.

Wenying Su↗

NASA NTRS1991

Triton's global heat budget

Internal heat flow from radioactive decay in Triton's interior along with absorbed thermal energy from Neptune total 5 to 20 percent of the isolation absorbed by Triton, thus comprising a significant fraction of Triton's surface energy balance. These additional energy inputs can raise Triton's surface temperature between about 0.5 and 1.5 K above that possible with absorbed sunlight alone, resulting in an increase of about a factor of about 1.5 to 2.5 in Triton's basal atmospheric pressure. If Triton's internal heat flow is concentrated in some areas, as is likely, local effects such as enhanced sublimation with subsequent modification of albedo could be quite large. Furthermore, indications of recent global albedo change on Triton suggest that Triton's surface temperature and pressure may not now be in steady state, further suggesting that atmospheric pressure on Triton was as much as ten times higher in the recent past.

Brown, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Atmospheric density, temperature and wind measurement techniques during the 1980 Energy Budget Campaign

Super Loki rocketsonde systems are described. The datasonde telemeters data to a ground station where ambient temperatures are calculated between 20 and 70 km. The sphere is a passive, radar tracked system which allows density to be calculated between 30 and 90 km. When flown simultaneously the systems give redundant data in the altitudes between 30 and 70 km. The datasonde has a balloon parachute that descends more slowly than a conventional parachute and is more stable. Because of launch constraints the datasondes reached very high apogees, leading to very fast descent velocities. Aerodynamic heating reduced thermistor sensitivity. Anomalous parachute behavior influenced wind sensing until a denser layer was reached. The spheres collapsed above 60 km altitude, but their data, combined with dropsonde data give significant results for 21 flights. These show that the stratosphere is colder than Cospar 72 model predictions and the mesosphere is warmer.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Application of self-preservation in the diurnal evolution of the surface energy budget to determine daily evaporation

Evaporation from natural land surfaces often exhibits a strong variation during the course of a day, mostly in response to the daily variation of radiative energy input at the surface. This makes it difficult to derive the total daily evaporation, when only one or a few instantaneous estimates of evaporation are available. It is often possible to resolve this difficulty by assuming self-preservation in the diurnal evolution of the surface energy budget. Thus if the relative partition of total incoming energy flux among the different components remains the same, the ratio of latent heat flux and any other flux component can be taken as constant through the day. This concept of constant flux ratios is tested by means of data obtained during the First ISLSCP Field Experiment; the instantaneous evaporation values were calculated by means of the atmospheric boundary layer bulk similarity approach with radiosonde profiles and radiative surface temperatures. Good results were obtained for evaporative flux ratios with available energy flux, with net radiation, and with incoming shortwave radiation.

Brutsaert, Wilfried↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE)

The Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) was conducted September 27 through October 22, 2004 on the North Slope of Alaska. The primary objective was to collect a data set suitable to study interactions between microphysics, dynamics and radiative transfer in mixed-phase Arctic clouds. Observations taken during the 1997/1998 Surface Heat and Energy Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) experiment revealed that Arctic clouds frequently consist of one (or more) liquid layers precipitating ice. M-PACE sought to investigate the physical processes of these clouds utilizing two aircraft (an in situ aircraft to characterize the microphysical properties of the clouds and a remote sensing aircraft to constraint the upwelling radiation) over the Department of Energy s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility (ACRF) on the North Slope of Alaska. The measurements successfully documented the microphysical structure of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, with multiple in situ profiles collected in both single-layer and multi-layer clouds over two ground-based remote sensing sites. Liquid was found in clouds with temperatures down to -30 C, the coldest cloud top temperature below -40 C sampled by the aircraft. Remote sensing instruments suggest that ice was present in low concentrations, mostly concentrated in precipitation shafts, although there are indications of light ice precipitation present below the optically thick single-layer clouds. The prevalence of liquid down to these low temperatures could potentially be explained by the relatively low measured ice nuclei concentrations.

Verlinde, J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Tropical Convective Responses to Microphysical and Radiative Processes: A Sensitivity Study With a 2D Cloud Resolving Model

Prognostic cloud schemes are increasingly used in weather and climate models in order to better treat cloud-radiation processes. Simplifications are often made in such schemes for computational efficiency, like the scheme being used in the National Centers for Environment Prediction models that excludes some microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction. In this study, sensitivity tests with a 2D cloud resolving model are carried out to examine effects of the excluded microphysical processes and precipitation-radiation interaction on tropical thermodynamics and cloud properties. The model is integrated for 10 days with the imposed vertical velocity derived from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The experiment excluding the depositional growth of snow from cloud ice shows anomalous growth of cloud ice and more than 20% increase of fractional cloud cover, indicating that the lack of the depositional snow growth causes unrealistically large mixing ratio of cloud ice. The experiment excluding the precipitation-radiation interaction displays a significant cooling and drying bias. The analysis of heat and moisture budgets shows that the simulation without the interaction produces more stable upper troposphere and more unstable mid and lower troposphere than does the simulation with the interaction. Thus, the suppressed growth of ice clouds in upper troposphere and stronger radiative cooling in mid and lower troposphere are responsible for the cooling bias, and less evaporation of rain associated with the large-scale subsidence induces the drying in mid and lower troposphere.

Li, Xiao-Fan↗

NASA NTRS2009

Phytoplankton and Climate

Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

Moisan, John R.↗