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At least 181 records · Page 10

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗

Resonant diffusion in the presence of strong plasma turbulence

The diffusion equation which describes the evolution of the average one particle distribution function for an ensemble of strongly turbulent plasmas is derived. The diffusion tensor is a time integral of the autocorrelation tensor of the fluctuations as observed by particles moving along statistically distributed orbits. These orbits contain the effects of fluctuations and thus differ from those encountered in weak turbulence theory. The plasma trajectory equations are used to relate each to the diffusion tensor itself when the turbulence is electrostatic. The diffusion tensor is explicity evaluated for a strongly turbulent unmagnetized plasma.

Birmingham, T. J.↗

Hypersonic and transonic buzz measurements on the lower pitch flap of the M2-F2 lifting entry configuration

Free-oscillation damping measurements at hypersonic and transonic Mach numbers are presented for the lower pitch flap of the M2-F2 reentry vehicle. For the flow and model conditions tested, the damping measurements indicate the absence of hypersonic buzz instability for flap rotation frequencies of 47.3 Hz, 153 Hz, and 360 Hz, the presence of transonic buzz for 47.3 Hz flap, and the absence of transonic buzz for a 115 Hz flap. There are not enough flap damping data for an error estimate based on repeatability, but a partial damping calibration is presented in which an analog computer simulation of random flap response for a known flap damping is fed into the autocorrelation computer and filter combination used for most of the damping measurements.

Warner, R. W.↗

IMP F and G phase 1 magnetic field analysis

The program developed to analyze magnetic field data from the magnetic field experiment flown in IMP F is reported. The analysis converts the raw X, Y, Z sensor data as received on the magnetic field experiment tape into vector measurements of the ambient magnetic field observed by the experiment. These data are computed for four frames of reference -- apparent, payload, solar ecliptic and solar magnetospheric. In addition 20.45 second statistics are computed for the last three coordinate systems. Finally, a summary tape is produced containing detailed data and sequence statistics as well as the output from the autocorrelation computer, trajectory data and identification information.

Mish, W. H.↗

Large scale photospheric magnetic field: The diffusion of active region fields

The large-scale phototospheric magnetic field was computed by allowing observed active region fields to diffuse and to be sheared by differential rotation in accordance with the Leighton (1969) magneto-kinematic model of the solar cycle. The differential rotation of the computed field patterns as determined by autocorrelation curves is similar to that of the observed photospheric field, and poleward of 20 deg. latitude both are significantly different from the differential rotation of the long-lived sunspots (Newton and Nunn, 1951) used as an input into the computations.

Schatten, K. H.↗

Some heuristic procedures for analyzing random vibration of nonlinear oscillators.

The stationary response of a lightly damped nonlinear oscillator subjected to wideband random excitation can be examined as an example of thermal equilibrium. It may be assumed that the response consists of a series of free-vibration cycles with small random fluctuations in phase and amplitude. Certain statistical properties of the response can be estimated by averaging corresponding properties of the free vibration with respect to cycle amplitude distributions. Such heuristic procedures for determining the expected frequency and the autocorrelation function of the stationary response are outlined. Some additional results concerning first-passage problems for nonlinear oscillators are included.

Crandall, S. H.↗

Time series analysis of compressor noise.

Description of a method to determine compressor directivity at discrete frequencies by separation of the tone power from the noise background. The technique developed effected the separation by Fourier analysis of the sound pressure autocorrelation at large lags. This produced experimental directivity results which compared reasonably well with the theoretical patterns except near the compressor axis.

Hardin, J. C.↗

Twenty-seven-day recurrences in the solar-wind speed - Mariner 2.

Results of an autocorrelation analysis of the Mariner 2 data concerning solar-wind speed obtained in late 1962. A statistically significant correlation associated with the solar rotation has been found near a lag of 27 days; however, the amplitude of the correlation is only about 0.4, in essential agreement with measurements of Vela 2 and 3 during the period from July 1964 to July 1967. The relatively modest correlation is interpreted to mean that a number of speed structures observed by Mariner 2 did not endure for more than one solar rotation; those structures that did endure evolved significantly in shape, amplitude, and solar longitude from one solar rotation to the next. The analysis also shows that typical solar-wind structures occupied about 30 to 45 deg in solar longitude near 1 AU.

Gosling, J. T.↗

Estimation of correlation functions by stochastic approximation.

Consideration of the autocorrelation function of a zero-mean stationary random process. The techniques are applicable to processes with nonzero mean provided the mean is estimated first and subtracted. Two recursive techniques are proposed, both of which are based on the method of stochastic approximation and assume a functional form for the correlation function that depends on a number of parameters that are recursively estimated from successive records. One technique uses a standard point estimator of the correlation function to provide estimates of the parameters that minimize the mean-square error between the point estimates and the parametric function. The other technique provides estimates of the parameters that maximize a likelihood function relating the parameters of the function to the random process. Examples are presented.

Habibi, A.↗

Resonant diffusion in the presence of strong plasma turbulence.

The diffusion equation which describes the evolution of the average one-particle distribution function for an ensemble of strongly turbulent plasmas is derived. The diffusion tensor is a time integral of the autocorrelation tensor of the fluctuations as observed by particles moving along statistically distributed orbits. These orbits contain the effects of fluctuations and thus differ from those encountered in weak turbulence theory. Two statistical orbit effects quadratic in the strength of the fluctuations affect the magnitude of the diffusion: (a) modification of the ensemble average orbits by the fluctuations, and (b) statistical dispersion in particle orbits about the average. The plasma trajectory equations are used to relate each to the diffusion tensor itself when the turbulence is electrostatic. The diffusion tensor is explicitly evaluated for a strongly turbulent unmagnetized plasma.

Birmingham, T. J.↗

An input adaptive, pursuit tracking model of the human opertor

Developed and evaluated is a simple model of the input adaptive behavior of the human operator (HO) in a pursuit tracking task in which the plant controlled consists of a pure gain. If it is assumed that the HO is approximately an optimal predictor using only position and velocity information, then there is a simple method of computing the values of the model parameters in terms of the autocorrelation function of the input signal. Experimental evidence indicates that the ability of the HO to use velocity information decreases with increasing signal velocity indicating that a biased estimator of the velocity weighting should be used. A suitable approximation is derived which has rapid convergence and low variance. The model thus derived is compared to actual subject transfer functions and is found to be in close agreement. In addition to tracking random processes the model can adapt to and track deterministic signals, such as sine waves, up to approximately the frequency at which human operators begin to track precognitively.

Ware, J. R.↗

Very High-Frequency (VHF) ionospheric scintillation fading measurements at Lima, Peru

During the spring equinox of 1970, scintillating signals at VHF (136.4 MHz) were observed at Lima, Peru. The transmission originated from ATS 3 and was observed through a pair of antennas spaced 1200 feet apart on an east-west baseline. The empirical data were digitized, reduced, and analyzed. The results include amplitude probability density and distribution functions, time autocorrelation functions, cross correlation functions for the spaced antennas, and appropriate spectral density functions. Results show estimates of the statistics of the ground diffraction pattern to gain insight into gross ionospheric irregularity size, and irregularity velocity in the antenna planes.

Blank, H. A.↗

Application of a stochastic inverse to the geophysical inverse problem

The inverse problem for gross earth data can be reduced to an undertermined linear system of integral equations of the first kind. A theory is discussed for computing particular solutions to this linear system based on the stochastic inverse theory presented by Franklin. The stochastic inverse is derived and related to the generalized inverse of Penrose and Moore. A Backus-Gilbert type tradeoff curve is constructed for the problem of estimating the solution to the linear system in the presence of noise. It is shown that the stochastic inverse represents an optimal point on this tradeoff curve. A useful form of the solution autocorrelation operator as a member of a one-parameter family of smoothing operators is derived.

Jordan, T. H.↗

Image correlation and sampling study

The development of analytical approaches for solving image correlation and image sampling of multispectral data is discussed. Relevant multispectral image statistics which are applicable to image correlation and sampling are identified. The general image statistics include intensity mean, variance, amplitude histogram, power spectral density function, and autocorrelation function. The translation problem associated with digital image registration and the analytical means for comparing commonly used correlation techniques are considered. General expressions for determining the reconstruction error for specific image sampling strategies are developed.

Popp, D. J.↗

The correlation structure of several popular pseudorandom number generators

One of the desirable properties of a pseudorandom number generator is that the sequence of numbers it generates should have very low autocorrelation for all shifts except for zero shift and those that are multiples of its cycle length. Due to the simple methods of constructing random numbers, the ideal is often not quite fulfilled. A simple method of examining any random generator for previously unsuspected regularities is discussed. Once they are discovered it is often easy to derive the mathematical relationships, which describe the mathematical relationships, which describe the regular behavior. As examples, it is shown that high correlation exists in mixed and multiplicative congruential random number generators and prime moduli Lehmer generators for shifts a fraction of their cycle lengths.

Neuman, F.↗

Large-scale photospheric magnetic field - The diffusion of active region fields.

The large-scale photospheric magnetic field has been computed by allowing observed active region fields to diffuse and to be sheared by differential rotation in accordance with the Leighton (1969) magnetokinematic model of the solar cycle. The differential rotation of the computed field patterns as determined by autocorrelation curves is similar to that of the observed photospheric field, and poleward of 20 deg latitude both are significantly different from the differential rotation of the long-lived sunspots (Newton and Nunn, 1951) used as an input into the computations.

Schatten, K. H.↗

Turbulent correlation measurements in a two-stream mixing layer.

Two point space-time measurements of the axial component of fluctuating velocity were made using linearized hot-wire anemometry. Space scales, convected frame correlations and time scales, and convection velocities in the shear layer were evaluated. Both filtered narrow and broad band convected frame autocorrelations were determined. Differences between axial broad band convection velocities and both mean turbulence and mean entrained fluid velocities were observed. Scaled broad band convection velocities for the mixing layer and simple round jets were found to collapse to a common curve. Axial narrow band convection velocities showed strong frequency and transverse position dependence.

Jones, B. G.↗

Equilibrium properties of a one-dimensional kinetic system.

One-dimensional systems of N = 500 and 250 particles in equilibrium are numerically simulated utilizing the method of molecular dynamics. Periodic boundary conditions are imposed. The classical two-body interaction potential is short range, repulsive and has a corresponding finite force. The equations of state are determined for densities both less and greater than one. Corresponding theoretical isochores are determined from models based on nearest-neighbor interactions and on a truncated virial expansion, and a comparison is made with the experimental isochores. Time independent radial distributions are constructed numerically and discussed. A change of state from a solidlike state to a fluid-gas state based on the penetrability of the particles is predicted. The transition temperatures are estimated from the radial distribution functions and the nearest-neighbor model. Self-diffusion is observed and the corresponding constants are determined from the velocity autocorrelation functions.

Williams, J. H.↗