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At least 181 records · Page 10

Exploring the Meteorological Impacts of Surface and Rooftop Heat Mitigation Strategies Over a Tropical City

Different heat mitigation technologies have been developed to improve the thermal environment in cities. However, the regional impacts of such technologies, especially in the context of a tropical city, remain unclear. The deployment of heat mitigation technologies at city-scale can change the radiation balance, advective flow, and energy balance between urban areas and the overlying atmosphere. We used the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a physically based single-layer urban canopy model to assess the impacts of five different heat mitigation technologies on surface energy balance, standard surface meteorological fields, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics for premonsoon typical hot summer days over a tropical coastal city in the month of April in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Results indicate that the regional impacts of cool materials (CMs), super-cool broadband radiative coolers, green roofs (GRs), vegetation fraction change, and a combination of CMs and GRs (i.e., “Cool city (CC)”) on the lower atmosphere are different at diurnal scale. Results showed that super-cool materials have the maximum potential of ambient temperature reduction of 1.6°C during peak hour (14:00 LT) compared to other technologies in the study. During the daytime hours, the PBL height was considerably lower than the reference scenario with no implementation of strategies by 700 m for super-cool materials and 500 m for both CMs and CC cases; however, the green roofing system underwent nominal changes over the urban area. During the nighttime hours, the PBL height increased by CMs and the CC strategies compared to the reference scenario, but minimal changes were evident for super-cool materials. The changes of temperature on the vertical profile of the heat mitigation implemented city reveal a stable PBL over the urban domain and a reduction of the vertical mixing associated with a pollution dome. This would lead to crossover phenomena above the PBL due to the decrease in vertical wind speed. Therefore, assessing the coupled regional impact of urban heat mitigation over the lower atmosphere at city-scale is urgent for sustainable urban planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building hypotheses to understand the synergistic effects of heat and pollution exposure in a changing climate

The increasing intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme weather events due to climate change poses a broad range of health risks, and the synergistic effects of extreme temperature co-occurring with other hazardous exposures such as air pollution may result in higher risks of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity than exposure to either event alone. There are a number of hypothesized mechanisms for this interaction effect, including increased susceptibility to heat effects on chronic conditions affected by air pollution exposure, exacerbation of pollution effects due to temperature-induced stress, and shared pathophysiological pathways (e.g., systemic inflammation), but specific physiological mechanisms are not well understood. In this editorial, the authors discuss this aspect of a recently published study examining ambient formaldehyde combined with high temperature exposure and respiratory disease admissions among children. Here, the observation that the health effects of pollutants such as formaldehyde are amplified following periods of high temperature can help inform risk warning systems even without knowledge of the underlying physiological mechanisms, but a deeper biological understanding of the interaction effects of heat and ambient air pollution may better inform interventions. This is even more important in view of increases in both extreme temperature and pollution events tied to climate change.

Chambliss, Sarah [University of Texas at Austin, T↗

NPP VIIRS Geometric Performance Status

Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument on-board the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite is scheduled for launch in October, 2011. It is to provide satellite measured radiance/reflectance data for both weather and climate applications. Along with radiometric calibration, geometric characterization and calibration of Sensor Data Records (SDRs) are crucial to the VIIRS Environmental Data Record (EDR) algorithms and products which are used in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The instrument geometric performance includes: 1) sensor (detector) spatial response, parameterized by the dynamic field of view (DFOV) in the scan direction and instantaneous FOV (IFOV) in the track direction, modulation transfer function (MTF) for the 17 moderate resolution bands (M-bands), and horizontal spatial resolution (HSR) for the five imagery bands (I-bands); 2) matrices of band-to-band co-registration (BBR) from the corresponding detectors in all band pairs; and 3) pointing knowledge and stability characteristics that includes scan plane tilt, scan rate and scan start position variations, and thermally induced variations in pointing with respect to orbital position. They have been calibrated and characterized through ground testing under ambient and thermal vacuum conditions, numerical modeling and analysis. This paper summarizes the results, which are in general compliance with specifications, along with anomaly investigations, and describes paths forward for characterizing on-orbit BBR and spatial response, and for improving instrument on-orbit performance in pointing and geolocation.

Lin, Guoqing↗

Wake Vortex Tracking Using a 35 GHz Pulsed Doppler Radar

A 35 GHz, pulsed-Doppler radar system has been designed and assembled for wake vortex detection and tracking in low visibility conditions. Aircraft wake vortices continue to be an important factor in determining safe following distances or spacings for aircraft in the terminal area. Currently, under instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), aircraft adhere to conservative, fixed following-distance guidelines based primarily on aircraft weight classifications. When ambient conditions are such that vortices will either drift or dissipate, leaving the flight corridor clear, the prescribed spacings are unnecessarily long and result in decreased airport throughput. There is a potential for significant airport efficiency improvement, if a system can be employed to aid regulators and pilots in setting safe and efficient following distances based on airport conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Agency, and Volpe National Transportation Systems Center have promoted and worked to develop systems that would increase airport capacity and provide for safe reductions in aircraft separation. The NASA Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS), a wake vortex spacing system that can provide dynamic adjustment of spacings based on real-time airport weather conditions, has demonstrated that Lidar systems can be successfully used to detect and track vortices in clear air conditions. To fill the need for detection capability in low-visibility conditions, a 35 GHz, pulsed-Doppler radar system is being investigated for use as a complimentary, low-visibility sensor for wake vortices. The radar sensor provides spatial and temporal information similar to that provided by Lidar, but under weather conditions that a Lidar cannot penetrate. Currently, we are analyzing the radar design based upon the data and experience gained during the wake vortex Lidar deployment with AVOSS at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport. As part of this study, two numerical models were utilized in system simulations. The results of this study improve our understanding of the method of detection, resolution requirements for range and azimuth, pulse compression, and performance prediction. Simulations applying pulse compression techniques show that detection is good in heavy fog to greater than 2000 m. Both compressed and uncompressed short pulses show the vortex structure. To explore operational challenges, siting and scanning strategies were also analyzed. Simulation results indicate that excellent wake vortex detection, tracking and classification is possible in drizzle (+15 dBZ) and heavy fog (- 13 dBZ) using short pulse techniques (<99ns) at ranges on the order of 900 m, with a modest power of 500 W output. At 1600 m, detection can be expected at reflectivities as low as -13 dBZ (heavy fog). The radar system, as designed and built, has the potential to support field studies of a wake vortex spacing system in low-visibility conditions ranging from heavy fog to rain, when sited within 2000m of the flight path.

Neece, Robert T.↗

Glass shell manufacturing in space

Residual gases always found in glass shells are CO2, O2 and N2. In those cases where high water vapor pressure is maintained in the furnace, water is also found in the shells. Other evidence for the existence of water in shells is the presence of water-induced surface weathering of the interior shell surface. Water and CO2 are the predominant volatiles generated by the pyrolysis of both inorganic and hydrolyzed metal-organic gels. The pyrolysates of unhydrolyzed metal-organic gels also contain, in addition to water and CO2, significant levels of organic volatiles, such as ethanol and some hydrocarbons; on complete oxidation, these produce CO2 and water as well. Water is most likely the initial blowing agent, it is produced copiously during the initial stages of heating. In the later stages, CO2 becomes the dominant gas as H2O is lost at increasing rates. Water in the shell arises mainly from gel dehydration, CO2 by sodium bicarbonate/carbonate decomposition and carbon oxidation, and O2 and N2 by permeation of the ambient furnace air through the molten shell wall.

Nolen, R. J.↗

Large-eddy simulation of an atmospheric bore and associated gravity wave effects on wind farm performance in the southern Great Plains

Gravity waves are a common occurrence in the atmosphere, with a variety of generation mechanisms. Their impact on wind farms has only recently gained attention, with most studies focused on wind farm-induced gravity waves. In this study, the interaction between a wind farm and gravity waves generated by an atmospheric bore event is assessed using multiscale large-eddy simulations. The atmospheric bore is created by a thunderstorm downdraft from a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS). The associated gravity waves impact the wind resource and power production at a nearby wind farm during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) in the US southern Great Plains. A two-domain nested setup (Δx=300 and 20 m) is used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced with data from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, to capture both the formation of the bore and its interaction with individual wind turbines. The MCS is resolved on the large outer domain, where the structure of the bore and the associated gravity waves are found to be especially sensitive to parameterized microphysics processes. On the finer inner domain, gravity wave interactions with individual wind turbines are resolved; wake dynamics are captured using a generalized actuator disk parameterization in WRF. The gravity waves are found to have a strong effect on the atmosphere above the wind farm; however, the effect of the waves is more nuanced closer to the surface where there is additional turbulence, both ambient and wake-generated. Notably, the gravity waves modulate the mesoscale environment by weakening and dissipating the preexisting low-level jet, which reduces hub-height wind speed and hence the simulated power output, which is confirmed by the observed supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) power data. Additionally, the gravity waves induce local wind direction variations correlated with fluctuations in pressure, which lead to fluctuations in the simulated power output as various turbines within the farm are subjected to waking from nearby turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dataset for "Bioaerosols are the dominant source of warm-temperature immersion-mode INPs and drive uncertainties in INP predictability

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of atmospheric aerosol that can initiate primary ice formation and thus trigger cloud glaciation. The re is a significant gap between our ability to measure INPs and to predict their concentrations and variability in large-scale weather and climate models. Accurate simulation of I NPs requires simulation of their major particle sources, as well as representative parameterizations of IN efficiency. Thus, there is a need for measurements of INP concentrations , delineated by particle type, to validate and improve model prediction of INP concentrations. Here we present a novel method for speciating INP concentrations into the relative c ontributions from dust, sea spray aerosol (SSA), and bioaerosol using single particle measurements. In a field campaign at Bodega Bay (coastal California), we find that bioaerosol s were the primary source of INPs between -12 and -20 ?C, while dust was a relatively minor source and SSA did not contribute significantly. We show that recent INP parameterizati ons for dust and SSA accurately predict ambient INP concentrations for these particle types. Finally, we use the speciated INP concentrations to evaluate the simulation of INPs at Bodega Bay, using a Lagrangian approach to connect the locally-observed aerosol with regionally-widespread emissions parameterizations. We find that we can skillfully simulate du st and SSA INPs, but not bioaerosol INPs. This points to a need for additional research to identify the major factors controlling the emissions and INP efficiency of bioaerosol IN Ps in order to develop improved parameterizations and enable their improved representation in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Transpacific Aerosol on Air Quality over the United States: A Perspective from Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation Interactions

Observations have well established that aerosols from various sources in Asia, Europe, and Africa can travel across the Pacific and reach the contiguous United States (U.S.) at least on episodic bases throughout a year, with a maximum import in spring. The imported aerosol not only can serve as an additional source to regional air pollution (e.g., direct input), but also can influence regional air quality through the aerosol-cloud-radiation (ACR) interactions that change local and regional meteorology. This study assessed impacts of the transpacific aerosol on air quality, focusing on surface ozone and PM2.5, over the U.S. using the NASA Unified Weather Research Forecast model. Based on the results of 3- month (April to June of 2010) simulations, the impact of direct input (as an additional source) of transpacific aerosol caused an increase of surface PM2.5 concentration by approximately 1.5 micro-g/cu m over the west coast and about 0.5 micro-g/cu m over the east coast of the U.S. By influencing key meteorological processes through the ACR interactions, the transpacific aerosol exerted a significant effect on both surface PM2.5 (+/-6 micro-g/cu m3) and ozone (+/-12 ppbv) over the central and eastern U.S. This suggests that the transpacific transport of aerosol could either improve or deteriorate local air quality and complicate local effort toward the compliance with the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Tao, Zhining↗

Response of marine post-frontal clouds to Gulf Stream variability

Understanding how Gulf Stream variation influences cloud morphology is critical for evaluating cloud feedback in the western North Atlantic Ocean and beyond, where mesoscale air-sea interactions dominate. This study investigates the impact of altered mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST gradients on post-frontal cloud characteristics during cold-air outbreaks, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted: a control simulation (default SST), Plus4 (uniform SST increase of 4 K), and Gradplus (SST gradient enhanced by 25 %, centered around mean SST). Results reveal distinctly different responses in boundary layer dynamics and cloud macro-physics. In Plus4, a warmer and moister boundary layer reduces total cloud cover but promotes larger cloud sizes and elongated cloud streets, with diminished liquid water and enhanced ice-phase hydrometeors. Conversely, Gradplus amplifies impacts in the upwind colder SST regions, yielding a drier, colder boundary layer, weaker energy transport, and higher liquid water path but reduced ice water content and cloud lines. Tracer analysis highlights that SST modifications alter airmass sources near cloud tops due to the entrainment of ambient air, with Plus4 amplifying boundary layer contributions to cloud-top regions. These findings underscore the spatially varying effects of SST gradients and mean SST on cloud organization and microphysics, emphasizing the need to resolve ocean-atmosphere coupling in global models to improve the prediction of marine cloud feedback under warming scenarios.

AIR-SEA INTERACTION↗

TRACER UAS CopterSonde Profiles

This dataset comes from a rotary-wing, weather-sensing uncrewed aerial system called the CopterSonde. Temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and direction are gathered during vertical profiles. The vertical resolution is 5 m up to 609 m above ground level and the temporal resolution is on average 30 minutes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The NASA-Langley Wake Vortex Modelling Effort in Support of an Operational Aircraft Spacing System

Two numerical modelling efforts, one using a large eddy simulation model and the other a numerical weather prediction model, are underway in support of NASA's Terminal Area Productivity program. The large-eddy simulation model (LES) has a meteorological framework and permits the interaction of wake vortices with environments characterized by crosswind shear, stratification, humidity, and atmospheric turbulence. Results from the numerical simulations are being used to assist in the development of algorithms for an operational wake-vortex aircraft spacing system. A mesoscale weather forecast model is being adapted for providing operational forecast of winds, temperature, and turbulence parameters to be used in the terminal area. This paper describes the goals and modelling approach, as well as achievements obtained to date. Simulation results will be presented from the LES model for both two and three dimensions. The 2-D model is found to be generally valid for studying wake vortex transport, while the 3-D approach is necessary for realistic treatment of decay via interaction of wake vortices and atmospheric boundary layer turbulence. Meteorology is shown to have an important affect on vortex transport and decay. Presented are results showing that wake vortex transport is unaffected by uniform fog or rain, but wake vortex transport can be strongly affected by nonlinear vertical change in the ambient crosswind. Both simulation and observations show that atmospheric vortices decay from the outside with minimal expansion of the core. Vortex decay and the onset three-dimensional instabilities are found to be enhanced by the presence of ambient turbulence.

Proctor, Fred H.↗

Aircraft observations in a tropical supercluster over the equatorial Indian Ocean during MISO-BOB field campaign

The Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BOB) field campaign was conducted in the Indian Ocean during the 2018 and 2019 summer monsoon seasons. WC-130J aircraft of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the US Air Force participated in the campaign in June 2018. The dropsonde observations across a tropical supercluster showed zonal wind variations in association with the structure of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW). Within the supercluster, easterlies (westerlies) were observed in the upper (lower) troposphere; this transformation occurred just below the 0° C level. The cold pool had an easterly component throughout, and it was coldest (by 2.5° C) at the center of the supercluster, deepest (~ 1000 m) at its rear/western end, and shallowest (~ 300 m) at the front/eastern end. The level of free convection (LFC) at the front end was at 897 m altitude. At the eastern flank of the supercluster, zonal convergence in the lower troposphere occurred between 500-1500 m levels above the surface between the westerlies within the supercluster and opposing ambient easterlies. Thus, the uplifting of conditionally unstable air parcels above LFC to the east of the supercluster was likely to occur due to this convergence rather than the cold pool influence. Conversely, the western flank of the supercluster had low-level zonal divergence. These observations support the notion of ‘self-similarity’ among the mesoscale convective systems and large-scale waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tracking Smoke from a Prescribed Fire and its Impacts on Local Air Quality using Temporally Resolved GOES-16 ABI Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) was used to track a smoke plume from a prescribed fire in northeastern Virginia on 8 March 2020. Weather and atmospheric conditions created a favorable environment to transport the plume through the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland, metro areas in the afternoon and concentrate smoke near the surface, degrading air quality for several hours. ABI AOD with 5-min temporal resolution and 2-km spatial resolution definitively identified the timing and geographic extent of the plume during daylight hours. Comparison to AERONET AOD indicates that ABI AOD captured the relative change in AOD due to passage of the smoke, with a mean absolute error of 0.047. Ground-based measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) confirm deteriorations in air quality coincident with the progression of the smoke. Ceilometer aerosol backscatter profiles verify plume transport timing and indicate that smoke aerosols were well mixed in a shallow boundary layer. This event illustrates the advantages of using multiple datasets to analyze the impacts of aerosols on ambient air quality. Given the quickly evolving nature of the event over several hours, ABI AOD provided information for the public and decision-makers that was not available from any other source, including polar-orbiting satellite sensors. This study suggests that PM2.5 concentrations estimated from ABI AOD can be used to fill in the gaps in nationwide regulatory PM2.5 monitor networks and may be a valuable addition to EPA’s PM2.5 NowCast of current air quality conditions.

satellite observations↗

GOES-17 Magnetometer On-Orbit Calibration Design and Results

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) is a series of four NOAA weather satellites. Each spacecraft flies a Magnetometer instrument which includes two boom mounted fluxgate sensors located 6.3 and 8.5 meters from the spacecraft. Sensor readings are corrupted by both internal (bias and scale factor) and external (spacecraft emitted fields and misalignments) error sources. In order to estimate the bias, an on-orbit calibration is performed, slewing the spacecraft about multiple axes and then performing a fit of the data to determine zero offset and misalignment terms. The first satellite in the series, GOES-16 was launched in November 2016. Its magnetometer calibration maneuver was found to be inadequate providing insufficient rotation about orthogonal axes. The uncertainty in the estimated biases was found to be in the 3-5 nanotesla range, exceeding the magnetometer accuracy requirement of 1.0 nanotesla. Based on lessons learned, the maneuver was redesigned to provide multiple 360 degree rotations about two orthogonal axes, providing optimal visibility into bias and misalignment. Varying ambient fields over the duration of the calibration maneuvers, corrupts the ability to accurately determine parameters of interest. To address this issue, rather than assuming a constant field for the duration of the maneuver, a non-linear least squares filter was employed that uses a series of spline functions to better fit the ambient field. The number of splines can be varied to minimize the least squares filter residuals. Simulations were performed using 360 days of GOES-16 data to bound the uncertainty in the biases for given residuals of the fit to the ambient field. Following the launch of the second satellite in the series, GOES-17 in March 2018, the new calibration maneuver and enhanced bias estimation algorithm were exercised twice. Based on the residuals of the fit, the uncertainty of the estimated zero offset was reduced by an order of magnitude from 3-5 nanotesla to approximately 0.4 nanotesla per axis. This paper provides details of the maneuver design and the innovative algorithm used to estimate the GOES-17 biases and misalignments.

GOES-17↗

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in th~s direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

Smith, Eric A.↗

An Evaluation of Biomass Burning Aerosol Mass, Extinction, and Size Distribution in Geos Using Observations From Camp2EX

Biomass burning aerosol impacts aspects of the atmosphere and Earth system through radiative forcing, serving as cloud condensation nuclei, and air quality. Despite its importance, the representation of biomass burning aerosol is not always accurate in numerical weather prediction and climate models or reanalysis products. Using observations collected as part of the Cloud, Aerosol and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex) in August through October of 2019, aerosol concentration and optical properties are evaluated within the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and its underlying aerosol module, GOCART. In the operational configuration, GEOS assimilates aerosol optical depth observations at 550 nm to constrain aerosol fields. Particularly for biomass burning aerosol, without the assimilation of aerosol optical depth, aerosol extinction is underestimated compared to observations collected in the Philippines region during the CAMP2Ex campaign. The assimilation process adds excessive amounts of carbon to account for the underestimated extinction, resulting in positive biases in the mass of black and organic carbon, especially within the boundary layer, relative to in situ observations from the Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment. Counteracting this, GEOS is deficient in sulphate and nitrate aerosol just above the boundary layer. Aside from aerosol mass, extinction within GEOS is a function of ambient relative humidity and an assumed particle size distribution. The relationship between dry and ambient extinction in GEOS reveals that hygroscopic growth is too aggressive within the model for biomass burning aerosol. An additional concern lies in the assumed particle size distribution for GEOS, which has a mode radius that is too small for organic carbon. Variability in the observed particle size distribution for biomass burning aerosol within a single flight also illuminates the fact that a single assumed particle size distribution is not sufficient and that for a proper representation, a more advanced aerosol module with GEOS may be necessary.

Aerosol Mass↗

Examining the Early Onset of Selected Large Solar Eruptions During the 2024 May Superstorm Episode

Recent studies indicate that solar flares are preceded by a period of above-ambient coronal heating, along with an increase in coronal X-ray emissions (Hudson et al. 2021). Despite being extremely common, the cause of these enhanced preflare emissions has not yet been understood. Here, our team examines in detail several of the large eruptions during the May 2024 superstorm period that resulted in significant geomagnetic disturbances. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), from the Hinode satellite, and from other sources. For several of the GOES X-class events on 8-10 May, we find that the preflare heating signature is more complex than in the case of flares occurring in less dynamic solar regions, but nonetheless distinct hot (>~ 10 MK) preflare coronal signatures are present. Understanding of the cause of such preflare activity prior to the onset of geoeffective solar eruptions is essential to developing an eventual robust prediction algorithm for warning of impending solar eruptions that threaten Space Weather consequences.

Alphonse C. Sterling↗