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Strategic Analyses and Assessments Office Annual Report 2023

The past year has seen a significant increase in focus on strategic issues with the continued aggression by Russia, the rapid expansion of China’s military—particularly their nuclear capabilities, North Korea’s rapid improvements in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology, and the increase in Iranian fuel enrichment. The U.S. continues to modernize Nuclear Command Control and Communication and all three legs of its nuclear Triad—Columbia-class submarines, Sentinel ICBMs, and B-21 bombers—for the Department of Defense (DOD). At the same time, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is updating its stockpile, producing the B61-12, the new B61-13, the W88 Alteration, the W87-1—with new pits, and the W80-4. This rework of the nuclear enterprise represents the most aggressive expansion of our capabilities and infrastructure in the modern era. At the same time, the Strategic Posture Commission completed its report to Congress and reported that the current modernization program, although clearly necessary, is insufficient to meet the threats that are emerging.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

2023 LDRD Annual Report

This summary report provides an overview of all LDRD projects at Argonne National Laboratory that concluded in Fiscal Year 2023. Many projects are funded for multiple years, the initial fiscal year for each project is indicated by the first four digits of the LDRD project number.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

MSIPP-NNSA 2021 Annual Report

This report highlights fiscal year 2021 programmatic and intern activities on the Minority-Serving Institution Partnership Program - National Nuclear Security Administration program.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (4th Annual Report)

Nuclear plant sites collect and store large volumes of data collected from various equipment and systems. These datasets typically include plant process parameters, maintenance records, technical logs, online monitoring data, and equipment failure data. The collection of such data affords an opportunity to leverage data-driven machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies to provide diagnostic and prognostic capabilities within the nuclear power industry to reduce operating and maintenance costs. In this way, nuclear energy can become more economically competitive with other energy sources, and premature closures can be avoided. From a maintenance standpoint, savings can be achieved by leveraging machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies to develop data-driven algorithms to better diagnose and predict potential faults within the system. Improved model accuracy can lead to reductions in unnecessary maintenance and more efficient planning of future maintenance, thus lowering the costs associated with parts, labor, and unnecessary planned, forced, or extended outages. From an operations perspective, cost savings can be generated by shifting from route-based monitoring to wireless technologies for online monitoring, and by transitioning from onsite- to cloud-based computing and storage services. Wireless monitoring would reduce the operator manhours required for taking routine measurements, while cloud computing services would generate cost savings by reducing the amount of hardware needing to be purchased and maintained—all while scaling to both computational and storage demands. This report summarizes this project’s effort to shift from costly, labor-intensive preventative maintenance to cheaper predictive maintenance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

FORGE STRESS annual report

The project's goal is to combine high-fidelity numerical models and true-triaxial block fracturing tests at high temperatures to understand the relationship between in situ stress, thermal effects, wellbore orientations and hydraulic fracture patterns. The numerical models are calibrated against field data, such as well pressures and microseismic data, and employed to estimate the in situ stress at the FORGE site. Laboratory experiments investigate the complex physics driving hydraulic fracture nucleation in EGS, enhancing understanding of the role of parameters like temperature, well orientation, and stress. Additionally, they are employed to validate some of the numerical tools used in the project. The project will have a significant impact by: (1) improving the characterization of the in-situ stress field at FORGE; (2) demonstrating the use of high-fidelity modeling tools for EGS; (3) providing a unique set of high-temperature hydraulic fracturing results to identify key components for in-situ stress estimation, validate current theories, and propose new ones; (4) offering a validated set of numerical tools within an open-source simulation framework, GEOS, that will be available to any future user.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Electric Grid Security FY23 Annual Report

During this fiscal year, Sandia contributed to research and development to modernize the grid and advance grid technologies, received prestigious professional and technical recognitions and organized multiple technical symposia.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

FY2023 NSTTF Annual Report

The National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) is a DOE Core Capability and Technology Deployment Center located in Albuquerque, NM. It is operated by Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The NSTTF is the only multi-mission, multi-use, multi-story test facility of its type in the United States. The NSTTF was founded in 1978 and began testing with high heat flux that same year. Over the past 45 years, the NSTTF has been at the forefront of the research, design, fabrication, and testing of many of the critical Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. These technologies have allowed costs to be dramatically reduced from over $\$ $0.40 /kWh to $\$$0.12 /kWh since the conception of this renewable energy technology. The NSTTF has worked to make the Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) parabolic trough plants successful, while also working with the Solar One and Solar Two facilities for successful implementation. Over the four decades since its founding, the mission of the NSTTF has grown to include new receiver technologies, like our generation 3 falling particle system (G3P3 Tower), optical metrology techniques like SOFAST, molten salt testing, thermal energy storage, solar thermal chemistry, and more. We continue to expand our capabilities in pursuit of the DOE SETO mission and the DOE SunShot 2030 goals: unsubsidized LCOE of $\$$0.05/kWh for CSP that includes 12 or more hours of thermal energy storage. To support both the DOE SETO mission and support the CSP sector as a whole, we are working to develop our operations and maintenance framework to provide a world class testing facility in support of our technological achievements. To accomplish both of these missions, the NSTTF draws on the decades of experience and expertise of our staff along with the world-class facilities at Sandia National Laboratories to further the science of concentrated solar thermal technologies in diverse applications. We remain a trusted partner for high-quality and impactful research in both fundamental and applied arenas. We are able to provide our partners with both one-of-a-kind testing platforms as well as world-class analytics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Laboratory Directed Research & Development: FY23 Annual Report

Sandia is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) focused on developing and applying advanced science and engineering capabilities to mitigate national security threats. This is accomplished through the exceptional staff leading research at the Labs and partnering with universities and companies. Sandia’s LDRD program aims to maintain the scientific and technical vitality of the Labs and to enhance the Labs’ ability to address future national security needs. The program funds foundational, leading-edge discretionary research projects that cultivate and utilize core science, technology, and engineering (ST&E) capabilities. Per Congressional intent (P.L. 101-510) and Department of Energy (DOE) guidance (DOE Order 413.2C, Chg 1), Sandia’s LDRD program is crucial to maintaining the nation’s scientific and technical vitality

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Laboratory Directed Research & Development: FY22 Annual Report

Sandia is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) focused on developing and applying advanced science and engineering capabilities to mitigate national security threats. This is accomplished through the exceptional staff leading research at the Labs and partnering with universities and companies. Sandia’s LDRD program aims to maintain the scientific and technical vitality of the Labs and to enhance the Labs’ ability to address future national security needs. The program funds foundational, leading-edge discretionary research projects that cultivate and utilize core science, technology, and engineering (ST&E) capabilities. Per Congressional intent (P.L. 101-510) and Department of Energy (DOE) guidance (DOE Order 413.2C, Chg 1), Sandia’s LDRD program is crucial to maintaining the nation’s scientific and technical vitality.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Arroyo Seco Improvement Project: Annual Report 2022

The Arroyo Seco Improvement Program (ASIP) is intended to provide active channel improvements and stream zone management activities that will reduce current flood and erosion risk while providing additional and improved habitat for critical species that may use the Arroyo Seco at the Sandia National Laboratories, California (SNL/CA). SNL/CA facility is operated by the National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC (NTESS) under a contract with the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA). The DOE/ NNSA’s Sandia Field Office (SFO) oversees the operations of the site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PV Lifetime Project (2024 NREL Annual Report)

DOE’s PV Lifetime project was initiated in 2016 with the goal of accurately characterizing the early-life evolution of photovoltaic (PV) field performance. Different PV cell and module technologies result in different initial degradation rates due to effects like light-induced degradation (LID) and light & elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID). To accurately characterize the initial field degradation of maximum power (Pmp) requires the use of high-accuracy indoor IV curve measurements at standard test conditions. Therefore, PV modules involved in this study are removed from the field once or twice per year and brought indoors for measurement under constant temperature and irradiance conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2023 Annual Report: Laboratory Directed Research & Development Program Activities

Each year, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is required to provide a report of its completed Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program (LDRD) projects to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Scientific and Technical Information in accordance with DOE Order 413.2C Chg1 (MinChg) dated August 2, 2018. This summary report provides an overview of all the LDRD projects funded at Brookhaven that concluded in FY 2023 in satisfaction of that requirement.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Annual Report for Structure-Aware Unsupervised, Transformational Machine Learning for Drug Discovery

The major goal of this project is to develop machine learning (ML) methods to enable improved predictive power on real drug discovery for novel targets. More specifically, we plan to demonstrate the capability and effectiveness of ML tools utilizing unlabeled large-volume protein-ligand datasets. We also plan to demonstrate the capability and effectiveness of the developed methods by testing on a realistic drug discovery task to identify pan-coronavirus protease inhibitors such as SARS-CoV-2. While the overall goals and milestones remain consistent with the original proposal, certain technical details have been modified, which we will describe in this report.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multimodal Data Fusion with 3D Gamma-Ray Imaging for Safeguards (2023 Annual Report)

Improve the quantitative results obtained from 3D gamma-ray imagers for use in safeguards inspections. In FY23 the work focused on continuing to improve the numerical results obtained with gamma-ray imagers and explore approaches to project such data onto 3D structures mapped with Self Localization and Mapping (SLAM) hardware and software.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

FY24 Advanced Computing HPC Annual Report for allocation "vtocei"

This project aims to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the formation of the cathodeelectrolyte interphase (CEI) and its impact on the performance of Li-ion batteries during electrochemical cycling. Our approach integrates advanced multiscale modeling with multimodal characterization to offer a comprehensive understanding of CEI dynamics. We employ a validated multiscale modeling framework to analyze microstructure-dependent transport properties, alongside joint theory-experiment protocols for detailed resolution of interfacial chemistry via spectroscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Annual Report on NCSP Technical Support task in BNL during FY24

This work reports on the investigations done during FY 24 in collaboration with two 2024 Summer undergraduate interns through the DOE SULI and BNL SURP programs. These efforts were partially funded by the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program through the Technical Support Succession Plan task. The first project, developed by Ian Snider, focused on testing the impact of uncertainties in thermal cross sections for multiple materials in nuclear reactor simulations. The second project aimed implement concurrent into BNL’s machine-learning code to correct spin mis-assignments in neutron resonances, the Bayesian Resonance Reclassifier (BRR).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Heliostat Consortium Annual Report: 2024

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) funded the formation of the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon), a five-year consortium designed to advance U.S. heliostat technologies by engaging industry, subject matter experts, and general stakeholders for direct project-level collaboration, external consulting, and mission-specific panels and workshops. HelioCon is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories, in partnership with the Australian Solar Thermal Research Institute. This report describes HelioCon's activities and impact in fiscal year 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗