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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

A System Concept for the Advanced Post-TRMM Rainfall Profiling Radars

Atmospheric latent heating field is fundamental to all modes of atmospheric circulation and upper mixed layer circulations of the ocean. The key to understanding the atmospheric heating process is understanding how and where precipitation occurs. The principal atmospheric processes which link precipitation to atmospheric circulation include: (1) convective mass fluxes in the form of updrafts and downdrafts; (2) microphysical. nucleation and growth of hydrometeors; and (3) latent heating through dynamical controls on the gravitation-driven vertical mass flux of precipitation. It is well-known that surface and near-surface rainfall are two of the key forcing functions on a number of geophysical parameters at the surface-air interface. Over ocean, rainfall variation contributes to the redistribution of water salinity, sea surface temperature, fresh water supply, and marine biology and eco-system. Over land, rainfall plays a significant role in rainforest ecology and chemistry, land hydrology and surface runoff. Precipitation has also been closely linked to a number of atmospheric anomalies and natural hazards that occur at various time scales, including hurricanes, cyclones, tropical depressions, flash floods, droughts, and most noticeable of all, the El Ninos. From this point of view, the significance of global atmospheric precipitation has gone far beyond the science arena - it has a far-reaching impact on human's socio-economic well-being and sustenance. These and many other science applications require the knowledge of, in a global basis, the vertical rain structures, including vertical motion, rain intensity, differentiation of the precipitating hydrometeors' phase state, and the classification of mesoscale physical structure of the rain systems. The only direct means to obtain such information is the use of a spaceborne profiling radar. It is important to mention that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) have made a great stride forward towards this ultimate goal. The Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite is the first ever spaceborne radar dedicated to three-dimensional, global precipitation measurements over the tropics and the subtropics, as well as the detailed synopsis of a wide range of tropical rain storm systems. In only twelve months since launch, the PR, together with other science instruments abroad the satellite have already provided unprecedented insights into the rainfall systems. It is anticipated the a lot more exciting and important rain observations would be made by TRMM throughout its mission duration. While TRMM has provided invaluable data to the user community, it is only the first step towards advancing our knowledge on rain processes and its contributions to climate variability. It is envisioned that a TRMM follow-on mission is needed in such a way to capitalize on the pioneering information provided by TRMM, and its instrument capability must be extended beyond TRMM in such a way to fully address the key science questions from microphysical to climatic time scale. In fact, a number of new and innovative mission concepts have recently put forth for this purpose. Almost all of these new concepts have suggested the utility of a more advanced, high-resolution, Doppler-enabled, vertical profiling radar that can provide multi-parameter observations of precipitation. In this paper, a system concept for a second- gene ration precipitation radar (PR-2) which addresses the above requirements will be described.

Im, Eastwood↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

Abstract Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1983

General circulation and the dynamical state of the Venus atmosphere

The principal mode of atmospheric circulation on Venus is a zonal retrograde superrotation of the entire atmosphere, from the lowest scale height to altitudes of more than 100 km, with an angular momentum that is about 0.15 percent of the solid planet angular momentum. These values suggest the possibility of significant angular momentum exchanges between the two reservoirs, yielding day length changes that may be of the order of hours and could therefore be detected by earth-based radar. Eddies, the mean meridional circulation, and planetary-scale waves may all be involved in the upward transport of retrograde angular momentum to maintain atmospheric counterrotation. Eddies have been observed in the lower atmoshere and may also transport heat and momentum latitudinally and vertically. Waves are present throughout the atmosphere, over a wide range of spatial scales. The mean zonal and meridional circulations may not be symmetric about the equator.

Schubert, G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Perlwitz, J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Atmospheric general circulation and its low frequency variance - Radiative influences

The possible effects of radiation on the evolution of the atmosphere on time scales ranging from about a week to about 90 days are examined with reference to the available observational and modeling studies. The clear-sky and cloud radiative processes are shown to exert significant vertical, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradients in the diabatic heating within the troposphere and the stratosphere. The meridional heating gradient, which drives the general circulation, is altered significantly by clouds. The major conclusion of the study is that the observed negative anomalies in the outgoing IR radiation following intense warm episodes of tropicl sea-surface temperature (El Nino) are indeed anomalies in the cloud-radiative forcing.

Ramanathan, V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Divergence in Tropical Hydrological Projections Caused by Model Spread in Vegetation Responses to Elevated CO 2

Increasing atmospheric CO 2 and associated global warming are expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, thereby posing widespread threats to freshwater availability. However, future hydrological projections differ greatly between models, particularly over the tropical regions. The large difference between model projections directly limits policy planning efforts, and the responsible modeling processes remain unclear. Here, we identify the primary processes accounting for model differences in tropical hydrological changes using multiple CO 2 sensitivity experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We show that differences in projected changes to tropical evapotranspiration, precipitation, and surface water availability mainly arise from model representations of vegetation cover and stomatal conductance responses to elevated CO 2 and associated changes in atmospheric moisture and circulation. Atmospheric responses to sea surface warming contribute additionally to the divergence in hydrological projections. Given the importance of vegetation responses to elevated CO 2 and associated atmosphere feedbacks, our results underscore the need to improve representations of the vegetation physiological response to rising CO 2 and its coupling to the atmosphere, to provide reliable tropical hydrological projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Airborne Sun photometry and Closure Studies in SAFARI-2000 Dry Season Campaign

From August 13 to September 25, the Southern African Regional Science Initiative's (SAFARI 2000) dry-season airborne campaign studied the complex interactions between the region's ecosystems, air pollution, atmospheric circulation, land-atmosphere interactions, and land use change. The field campaign was timed to coincide with the annual winter fire season in Southern Africa. This challenging campaign. which coordinated ground-based measurement teams, multiple research aircraft, and satellite overpasses across nine African nations, was head quartered at the Petersburg International Airport in South Africa's Northern Province. Among many others, unique coordinated observations were made of the evolution of massive, thick haze layers produced by industrial emissions, biomass burning, marine and biogenic sources. The NASA Ames Airborne Tracking 14-channel Sunphotometer (AATS-14) was operated successfully aboard the University of Washington CV-580 during 24 data flights. The AATS-14 instrument measures the transmission of the direct solar beam at 14 discrete wavelengths (3501558 nm) from which we derive spectral aerosol optical depths (AOD), columnar water vapor (CWV) and columnar ozone. Flying at different altitudes over a fixed location allows derivation of layer AOD and CWV. Data taken during feasible vertical profiles allows derivation of aerosol extinction and water vapor density. In the talk, we show comparisons with ground-based AERONET sun/sky photometer results, with ground based MPL-Net lidar data, and with measurements from a lidar aboard the high flying ER-2 aircraft. We will use measurements from the Ames Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer to derive estimates of solar spectral forcing as a function of aerosol thickness. Validations of TOMS and Terra satellite aerosol and water-vapor retrievals will also be discussed.

Schmid, B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Multiyear Dry Periods in Southern Africa

Characteristics and physical features related to low precipitation across many years in Southern Africa that lead to societal disruptions are diagnosed using observed analyses and an ensemble of historical coupled climate model simulations during 1921 to 2014. Four regions are evaluated, as identified through a hierarchical clustering algorithm applied to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during the October–April precipitation season. Although dryness spanning many October–April occurs periodically in each region, they seldom occur simultaneously, consistent with largely insignificant SPI cross-correlations between them. However, characteristics relevant to low precipitation across many years are generalizable between the four regions, including the serial persistence of October–April precipitation, the likelihood of consecutive dry October–April, and the likelihood of dry October–April in temporal extents of up to 10 consecutive such 7-month seasons. Systematic precipitation persistence is not a feature in any of the four Southern Africa regions, as serial correlations of October–April SPI are not statistically significant at any time lags. It follows that there is an exponential-folding decay in the likelihood of consecutive October–April for various SPI thresholds and that there is a large spread in the likelihood of low October–April SPI across many years. In terms of physical features, low October–April SPI in each Southern Africa region is closely related to local atmospheric circulations; however, they are not as closely related to sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These results suggest that dryness spanning many years is determined primarily by persistent local circulations related to atmospheric variability and to a lesser extent variability related to SST anomalies, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

subtropical Indian Ocean dipole↗
NASA NTRS1989

Study of the atmospheric general circulation as an initial value problem with the NCAR Community Climate Model

The essential elements of the transition of a model atmosphere to the equilibrium state from two extreme rest states, a cold (240 K) state and a warm (310 K) state, were examined using the NCAR Community Climate Model. It is shown that the same equilibrium state was reached in the two spinup conditions, which was also the same that was reported for this model by Williamson and Williamson (1984), who started from still a different initial condition. The spinup from the cold initial condition was faster than that from the warm condition, although the final stages of the approach to equilibrium were very simular in both cases. It was also found that the spinup of the barotropic flow lagged behind that of the baroclinic flow and the thermal field, and the model tropics spinup was faster than that of the mid-latitudes.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗
NASA NTRS2016

Atmospheric Drivers of Greenland Surface Melt Revealed by Self-Organizing Maps

Recent acceleration in surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has occurred concurrently with a rapidly warming Arctic and has been connected to persistent, anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over Greenland. To identify synoptic setups favoring enhanced GrIS surface melt and their decadal changes, we develop a summer Arctic synoptic climatology by employing self-organizing maps. These are applied to daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields obtained from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis, 1979-2014. Particular circulation regimes are related to meteorological conditions and GrIS surface melt estimated with outputs from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional. Our results demonstrate that the largest positive melt anomalies occur in concert with positive height anomalies near Greenland associated with wind, temperature, and humidity patterns indicative of strong meridional transport of heat and moisture. We find an increased frequency in a 500 hPa ridge over Greenland coinciding with a 63% increase in GrIS melt between the 1979-1988 and 2005-2014 periods, with 75.0% of surface melt changes attributed to thermodynamics, 17% to dynamics, and 8.0% to a combination. We also confirm that the 2007-2012 time period has the largest dynamic forcing relative of any period but also demonstrate that increased surface energy fluxes, temperature, and moisture separate from dynamic changes contributed more to melt even during this period. This implies that GrIS surface melt is likely to continue to increase in response to an ever warmer future Arctic, regardless of future atmospheric circulation patterns.

anomalies↗
NASA NTRS1999

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economics of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. Tropical forests and the underlying soils are major sources of many of the atmosphere's trace constituents. Together, the forests and the atmosphere act as a water-energy regulating system. Most of the rainfall is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration, and the atmospheric trace constituents take part in the recycling process. Hence, the hydrological cycle provides a direct link between tropical rainfall and the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, all important trace materials for the Earth's system. Because rainfall is such an important component in the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land, and the biosphere, accurate measurements of rainfall are crucial to understanding the workings of the Earth-atmosphere system. The large spatial and temporal variability of rainfall systems, however, poses a major challenge to estimating global rainfall. So far, there has been a lack of rain gauge networks, especially over the oceans, which points to satellite measurement as the only means by which global observation of rainfall can be made. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, provides visible, infrared, and microwave observations of tropical and subtropical rain systems.The satellite observations are complemented by ground radar and rain gauge measurements to validate satellite rain estimation techniques. Goddard Space Flight Center's involvement includes the observatory, four instruments, integration and testing of the observatory, data processing and distribution, and satellite operations. TRMM has a design lifetime of three years. Data generated from TRMM and archived at the GDAAC are useful not only for hydrologists, atmospheric scientists, and climatologists, but also for the health community studying infectious diseases, the ocean research community, and the agricultural community.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence. Significance Statement The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1987

Atmospheric dynamics on Venus and Mars

In this paper, recent information concerning the atmospheric dynamics of Venus and Mars is discussed. In the Venusian atmosphere, the Vega balloon results disclosed the presence of major vertical motions at the 53 km level and demonstrated the near zonality of the atmospheric circulation below the level of the clouds. Pioneer Orbiter observations indicated a continued vortex organization of the cloud level atmosphere in either hemisphere, centered over respective poles. In the case of the Martian atmospheric circulation, the observations are scant. Viking lander data and orbit images have been used to derive cloud motions and compare the measured winds with the predictions for surface conditions from general circulation models.

Limaye, Sanjay Shridhar↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamics of the atmosphere of Mars

The current understanding of the Martian atmospheric circulation and boundary layer is described. The available meteorological data and the first-order constraints that can be derived from them are reviewed. Pertinent aspects of atmospheric radiation on Mars are briefly presented; their main features are the short radiative time constraints on Mars, as compared to earth, and the important role of suspended dust in providing a potent thermal drive for the atmosphere. The current understanding of the Martian atmospheric circulation and its various components - the zonal-mean, zonal, and meridional flows, stationary and traveling planetary waves, atmospheric thermal tides, topographic wind systems, free modes, and gravity waves - is examined. Present-day knowledge of the PBL on Mars is reviewed, with particular attention given to the Viking Orbiter and Lander observations relating to the winds required for raising dust from the surface. The theory of the origin and decay of great dust storms on Mars is reviewed.

Zurek, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Predictabilty of time averages: The influence of the boundary forcing

The physical mechanisms through which changes in the boundary forcings of SST, soil moisture, albedo, sea ice, and snow influence the atmospheric circulation are discussed. Results of numerical experiments conducted with the GLAS climate model to determine the sensitivity of the model atmosphere to changes in boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, and albedo over limited regions are dicussed. It is found that changes in SST and soil moisture in the tropic produce large changes in the atmospheric circulation and rainfall over the tropics as well as over mid-latitudes.

Shukla, J.↗