Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “BOX MODELS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Sensitivity of Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss to Uncertainties in Chemical Reaction Kinetics

Several recent observational and laboratory studies of processes involved in polar stratospheric ozone loss have prompted a reexamination of aspect of out understanding for this key indicator of global change. To a large extent, our confidence in understanding and projecting changes in polar and global ozone is based on our ability to to simulate these process in numerical models of chemistry and transport. These models depend on laboratory-measured kinetic reaction rates and photlysis cross section to simulate molecular interactions. In this study we use a simple box-model scenario for Antarctic ozone to estimate the uncertainty in loss attributable to known reaction kinetic uncertainties. Following the method of earlier work, rates and uncertainties from the latest laboratory evaluation are applied in random combinations. We determine the key reaction and rates contributing the largest potential errors and compare the results to observations to evaluate which combinations are consistent with atmospheric data. Implications for our theoretical and practical understanding of polar ozone loss will be assessed.

Kawa, S. Randolph↗
DOE OSTI2017

Building thermal model development of typical house in U.S. for virtual storage control of aggregated building loads based on limited available information

A building thermal model is an essential component for achieving optimal control of a building’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC). A self-learning grey-box model has been developed by implementing data-driven techniques and utilizing limited available information about the building. In previous research, detailed foreknown knowledge/information, e.g. physical and thermal properties of building materials, as well as sufficient number of observation points, e.g. indoor temperature sensors in different zones, are available for making the decision of model structure and parameters searching range easier. The availability of measured data and a narrowed searching range of model parameters, e.g. resistance and capacity for each wall, made the adopted algorithms quickly achieve near optimal values, which closely approximate the actual heat transfer of a building. Meanwhile, the details of pre-processing of the key inputs were seldom explained. Compared to the previous research, in this study, the available information is assumed to be limited which can fill the requirement for large scale virtual storage control of real residential community in near future, where it may be impractically or over time-consuming to acquire the detailed information for each single house. The developed model is validated by comparing the results to measured data in a recently-built home typical of the southeastern United States.

Cui, Borui↗
NASA NTRS2013

Heterogeneous Formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds- Part 1: Nucleation of Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT)

Satellite-based observations during the Arctic winter of 2009/2010 provide firm evidence that, in contrast to the current understanding, the nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) in the polar stratosphere does not only occur on preexisting ice particles. In order to explain the NAT clouds observed over the Arctic in mid-December 2009, a heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is required, occurring via immersion freezing on the surface of solid particles, likely of meteoritic origin. For the first time, a detailed microphysical modelling of this NAT formation pathway has been carried out. Heterogeneous NAT formation was calculated along more than sixty thousand trajectories, ending at Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observation points. Comparing the optical properties of the modelled NAT with these observations enabled a thorough validation of a newly developed NAT nucleation parameterisation, which has been built into the Zurich Optical and Microphysical box Model (ZOMM). The parameterisation is based on active site theory, is simple to implement in models and provides substantial advantages over previous approaches which involved a constant rate of NAT nucleation in a given volume of air. It is shown that the new method is capable of reproducing observed polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) very well, despite the varied conditions experienced by air parcels travelling along the different trajectories. In a companion paper, ZOMM is applied to a later period of the winter, when ice PSCs are also present, and it is shown that the observed PSCs are also represented extremely well under these conditions.

Hoyle, C. R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1993

Stratospheric aircraft exhaust plume and wake chemistry

Progress to date in an ongoing study to analyze and model emissions leaving a proposed High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) from when the exhaust gases leave the engine until they are deposited at atmospheric scales in the stratosphere is documented. A kinetic condensation model was implemented to predict heterogeneous condensation in the plume regime behind an HSCT flying in the lower stratosphere. Simulations were performed to illustrate the parametric dependence of contrail droplet growth on the exhaust condensation nuclei number density and size distribution. Model results indicate that the condensation of water vapor is strongly dependent on the number density of activated CN. Incorporation of estimates for dilution factors into a Lagrangian box model of the far-wake regime with scale-dependent diffusion indicates negligible decrease in ozone and enhancement of water concentrations of 6-13 times background, which decrease rapidly over 1-3 days. Radiative calculations indicate a net differential cooling rate of the plume about 3K/day at the beginning of the wake regime, with a total subsidence ranging between 0.4 and 1 km. Results from the Lagrangian plume model were used to estimate the effect of repeated superposition of aircraft plumes on the concentrations of water and NO(y) along a flight corridor. Results of laboratory studies of heterogeneous chemistry are also described. Kinetics of HCl, N2O5 and ClONO2 uptake on liquid sulfuric acid were measured as a function of composition and temperature. Refined measurements of the thermodynamics of nitric acid hydrates indicate that metastable dihydrate may play a role in the nucleation of more stable trihydrates PSC's.

Miake-Lye, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of secondary organic aerosol viscosity from explicit modeling of gas-phase oxidation of isoprene and α -pinene

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are major components of atmospheric fine particulate matter, affecting climate and air quality. Mounting evidence exists that SOA can adopt glassy and viscous semisolid states, impacting formation and partitioning of SOA. In this study, we apply the GECKO-A (Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) model to conduct explicit chemical modeling of isoprene photooxidation and α-pinene ozonolysis and their subsequent SOA formation. The detailed gas-phase chemical schemes from GECKO-A are implemented into a box model and coupled to our recently developed glass transition temperature parameterizations, allowing us to predict SOA viscosity. The effects of chemical composition, relative humidity, mass loadings and mass accommodation on particle viscosity are investigated in comparison with measurements of SOA viscosity. The simulated viscosity of isoprene SOA agrees well with viscosity measurements as a function of relative humidity, while the model underestimates viscosity of α-pinene SOA by a few orders of magnitude. This difference may be due to missing processes in the model, including autoxidation and particle-phase reactions, leading to the formation of high-molar-mass compounds that would increase particle viscosity. Additional simulations imply that kinetic limitations of bulk diffusion and reduction in mass accommodation coefficient may play a role in enhancing particle viscosity by suppressing condensation of semi-volatile compounds. The developed model is a useful tool for analysis and investigation of the interplay among gas-phase reactions, particle chemical composition and SOA phase state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anomaly Attribution with Likelihood Compensation

This paper addresses the task of explaining anomalous predictions of a black-box regression model. When using a black-box model, such as one to predict building energy consumption from many sensor measurements, we often have a situation where some observed samples may significantly deviate from their prediction. It may be due to a sub-optimal black-box model, or simply because those samples are outliers. In either case, one would ideally want to compute a responsibility score indicative of the extent to which an input variable is responsible for the anomalous output. In this work, we formalize this task as a statistical inverse problem: Given model deviation from the expected value, infer the responsibility score of each of the input variables. We propose a new method called likelihood compensation (LC), which is founded on the likelihood principle and computes a correction to each input variable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first principled framework that computes a responsibility score for real valued anomalous model deviations. We apply our approach to a real-world building energy prediction task and confirm its utility based on expert feedback.

Idé, Tsuyoshi↗
DOE OSTI2018

Active Modes and Dynamical Balances in MRI Turbulence of Keplerian Disks with a Net Vertical Magnetic Field

Her,e we studied dynamical balances in magnetorotational instability (MRI) turbulence with a net vertical field in the shearing box model of disks. Analyzing the turbulence dynamics in Fourier ($\boldsymbol{k}$-)space, we identified three types of active modes that define the turbulence characteristics. These modes have lengths similar to the box size, i.e., lie in the small wavenumber region in Fourier space labeled "the vital area" and are (i) the channel mode, uniform in the disk plane with the smallest vertical wavenumber; (ii) the zonal flow mode, azimuthally and vertically uniform with the smallest radial wavenumber; and (iii) the rest (parasitic) modes. The rest modes comprise those harmonics in the vital area whose energies reach more than 50% of the maximum spectral energy. The rest modes individually are not so significant compared to the channel and zonal flow modes; however, the combined action of their multitude is dominant over these two modes. These three mode types are governed by the interplay of the linear and nonlinear processes, leading to their interdependent dynamics. The linear processes consist of disk flow nonmodality modified classical MRI with a net vertical field. The main nonlinear process is the transfer of modes over wavevector angles in Fourier space—the transverse cascade. The channel mode exhibits episodic bursts supplied by linear MRI growth, while the nonlinear processes mostly oppose this, draining the channel energy and redistributing it to the rest modes. As for the zonal flow, it does not have a linear source and is fed by nonlinear interactions of the rest modes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of Evolving Isoprene Mechanisms on Simulated Formaldehyde: An Inter-comparison Supported by in Situ Observations from SENEX

Isoprene oxidation schemes vary greatly among gas-phase chemical mechanisms, with potentially significant ramifications for air quality modeling and interpretation of satellite observations in biogenic-rich regions. In this study, in situ observations from the 2013 SENEX mission are combined with a constrained O-D photochemical box model to evaluate isoprene chemistry among five commonly used gas-phase chemical mechanisms: CBO5, CB6r2, MCMv3.2, MCMv3.3.1, and a recent version of GEOS-Chem. Mechanisms are evaluated and inter-compared with respect to formaldehyde (HCHO), a high-yield product of isoprene oxidation. Though underestimated by all considered mechanisms, observed HCHO mixing ratios are best reproduced by MCMv3.3.1 (normalized mean bias = -15%), followed by GEOS-Chem (-17%), MCMv3.2 (-25%), CB6r2 (-32%) and CB05 (-33%). Inter-comparison of HCHO production rates reveals that major restructuring of the isoprene oxidation scheme in the Carbon Bond mechanism increases HCHO production by only approx. 5% in CB6r2 relative to CBO5, while further refinement of the complex isoprene scheme in the Master Chemical Mechanism increases HCHO production by approx. 16% in MCMv3.3.1 relative to MCMv3.2. The GEOS-Chem mechanism provides a good approximation of the explicit isoprene chemistry in MCMv3.3.1 and generally reproduces the magnitude and source distribution of HCHO production rates. We analytically derive improvements to the isoprene scheme in CB6r2 and incorporate these changes into a new mechanism called CB6r2-UMD, which is designed to preserve computational efficiency. The CB6r2-UMD mechanism mimics production of HCHO in MCMv3.3.1 and demonstrates good agreement with observed mixing ratios from SENEX (-14%). Improved simulation of HCHO also impacts modeled ozone: at approx. 0.3 ppb NO, the ozone production rate increases approx. 3% between CB6r2 and CB6r2-UMD, and rises another approx. 4% when HCHO is constrained to match observations.

isoprene↗
NASA NTRS1979

Evidence for the deficiency of short cosmic ray pathlengths and a physically realistic explanation - The no-near-sources model

Recent observations of the charge and energy spectra of cosmic-ray nuclei are used to construct secondary-to-primary charge ratios at the two ends of the charge spectrum. These ratios are found to be inconsistent with the ad hoc leaky-box model of cosmic-ray propagation which leads to an exponential pathlength distribution. Models for which the pathlength distribution function is deficient in short pathlengths provide a more consistent picture. Several of these models, both ad hoc and physical, are investigated. The physical model considered is one for which detailed galactic propagation parameters and boundary conditions are used and for which there exist no near sources of cosmic rays over a time interval corresponding to a few times the cosmic-ray age.

Lezniak, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modelling the Antarctic lower stratosphere

Results form modeling studies of the Antarctic lower stratosphere which have attempted to simulate the large springtime ozone losses and corresponding changes in other trace constituents are given. These studies were carried out in a photochemical box model, a one-dimensional model without transport and in a two-dimensional photochemical-dynamical-radiation model. The photochemical studies have investigated inter alia the sensitivity of ozone to inclusion in the model of heterogeneous chemistry, and to the inclusion of the ClO dimer. When both of these are incorporated in the model, ozone depletions resembling whose found in Halley Bay in 1987 (J.C. Farman, Nature, 329, 1987) can be reproduced. The temporal variations (both diurnal and during the August to October period) of a number of important tracers including HCl, ClONO2, OClO and BrO are discussed. The two-dimensional study concentrated on the difficulty of establishing in the model the dynamical preconditioning of the lower polar stratosphere - low temperatures, low N2O, etc., high ClOx. Calculations are presented to show: (1) the depletion of ozone during the springtime season, (2) the effect of large ozone losses on lower latitudes, and (3) the longer term (multi-year) variations of ozone in Antarctica, assuming realistic increases in the atmospheric halogen burden.

Chipperfield, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impact of Ship Emissions on Marine Boundary Layer NO(x) and SO2 Distributions over the Pacific Basin

The impact of ship emissions on marine boundary layer (MBL) NO(x) and SO2 levels over the Pacific Ocean has been explored by comparing predictions (with and without ships) from a global chemical transport model (GCTM) against compiled airborne observations of MBL NO(x) and SO2. For latitudes above 15 N, which define that part of the Pacific having the heaviest shipping, this analysis revealed significant model over prediction for NOx and a modest under prediction for SO2 when ship emissions were considered. Possible reasons for the difference in NO(x) and SO2 were explored using a full-chemistry box model. These results revealed that for an actual plume setting the NO(x) lifetime could be greatly shortened by chemical processes promoted by ship plume emissions themselves. Similar chemical behavior was not found for SO2.

Davis, D. D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Continuous assimilation of simulated Geosat altimetric sea level into an eddy-resolving numerical ocean model. I - Sea level differences. II - Referenced sea level differences

The optimal interpolation method of Lorenc (1981) was used to conduct continuous assimilation of altimetric sea level differences from the simulated Geosat exact repeat mission (ERM) into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic eddy-resolving numerical ocean box model that simulates the statistics of mesoscale eddy activity in the western North Pacific. Assimilation was conducted continuously as the Geosat tracks appeared in simulated real time/space, with each track repeating every 17 days, but occurring at different times and locations within the 17-day period, as would have occurred in a realistic nowcast situation. This interpolation method was also used to conduct the assimilation of referenced altimetric sea level differences into the same model, performing the referencing of altimetric sea sevel differences by using the simulated sea level. The results of this dynamical interpolation procedure are compared with those of a statistical (i.e., optimum) interpolation procedure.

White, Warren B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Distributed reacceleration of cosmic rays

A model is developed in which cosmic rays, in addition to their initial acceleration by a strong shock, are continuously reaccelerated while propagating through the Galaxy. The equations describing this acceleration scheme are solved analytically and numerically. Solutions for the spectra of primary and secondary cosmic rays are given in a closed analytic form, allowing a rapid search in parameter space for viable propagation models with distributed reeacceleration included. The observed boron-to-carbon ratio can be reproduced by the reacceleration theory over a range of escape parameters, some of them quite different from the standard leaky-box model. It is also shown that even a very modest amount of reacceleration by strong shocks causes the boron-to-carbon ratio to level off at sufficiently high energies.

Wandel, Amri↗
DOE OSTI2018

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

Dissolved oxygen (O 2 ) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O 2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO 2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O 2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O 2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effect of the nonlinearity of the carbonate system on partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the oceans

Partial pressure of CO2 is a nonlinear function of several seawater properties. Due to the nonlinearity in this relationship, the partial pressure of a uniform ocean would be different from that of a nonuniform ocean with the same bulk seawater properties. Assuming uniformity of seawater properties at some temporal and spatial scales in carbon models leads to systematic errors in partial pressure of CO2. In this paper we evaluate the magnitude of these errors. We partition the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study and Transient Tracers in the Oceans data according to the horizontal structure of several box models from the literature. Our results suggest that assumption of uniformity at large scales leads to understanding of underestimation of global surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 by at least 3 - 12 microatm. Nonlinear effects also introduce systematic errors in the buffer factor estimated from bulk seawater properties. We find the standard deviation of partial pressure of CO2 to be an indicator of the magnitude of the nonlinear effects. We discuss the implications of these errors for some conclusions drawn from carbon models. Biogeochemical processes, such as mixing, gas exchange, or biological activity, influence the distribution of the seawater properties. A shift in spatial or temporal patterns of these processes can modify the nonuniformity of the seawater properties and thus alter the partial pressure of the surface waters, even if the mean intensities of the processes remain constant.

Trela, Piotr↗