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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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178 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Pressurized in situ X-ray diffraction insights into super/subcritical carbonation reaction pathways of steelmaking slags and constituent silicate minerals

This study explores mineral carbonation of industrial stainless steelmaking slags and relevant synthetic constituent minerals via in situ pressurized X-ray diffraction, to clarify carbonation reaction pathways and efficiency for carbon storage and waste valorization. The primary mineral phases of Argon Oxygen Decarburization (AOD) and Continuous Casting (CC) slags, namely, åkermanite, bredigite, cuspidine, merwinite, and β- and γ-C 2 S, were reacted in a custom-built beryllium-capped XRD reactor filled with either water-saturated (wet) subcritical CO 2 (g), or wet supercritical CO 2(SC) , in a series of carbonation experiments. Formation of calcite and aragonite was observed for most Ca-bearing minerals, transient precipitation of metastable vaterite was observed, while carbonation of AOD and CC slags in CO 2(SC) resulted in hydrated crystalline calcium carbonates and indirect evidence of amorphous carbonate. Overall, results obtained suggest that low-pressure subcritical carbonation routes are attractive for standalone slag carbonation processes, while high-pressure supercritical carbonation routes are amiable to symbiotic integration with CO 2(SC) -generating green technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mass Balance Accounting for CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. MRCSP monitoring efforts began in February 2013, with an overarching goal of monitoring at least 1 million metric tons (MT) of net CO 2 stored at a CO 2 -EOR complex in northern Michigan. This report highlights the mass balance accounting of injection, production and recycling activities at ten CO 2 -EOR reefs. The reefs that were monitored for CO 2 -EOR operations include a late-stage depleted reef, eight active CO 2 -EOR reefs and two new reefs added to the CO 2 -EOR complex where a CO 2 flood was initiated.

, production↗
DOE OSTI2023

Paragenetic controls on CO 2 -fluid-rock interaction and weakening in a macroporous-dominated sandstone

The injection and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 in the subsurface is being deployed as a climate change mitigation tool; however, diagenetic-paragenetic heterogeneity in sandstone reservoirs often contributes to interval specific chemomechanical changes that affect injection and can increase leakage risk.In this paper we address reservoir heterogeneities’ impact on chemomechanical changes in a macroporous-dominated lithofacies of Morrow B sandstone, a formation containing several diagenetically-distinct hydraulic facies while undergoing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. We performed three flow-through experiments using a CO 2 -charged or uncharged formation water combined with four indirect tensile strength tests per post-test sample. We then used the microstructure and paragenetic sequence to understand chemomechanical weakening with key observations as follows: dissolution of carbonates and feldspars changed porosity; increased permeability led to reclassifying each sample in a different hydraulic flow unit; decreased ultrasonic velocity; and did not lead to a loss of tensile strength. Tensile strength maintenance occurred due to the low abundance and minor dissolution of siderite, the stability of quartz, and the relative position of diagenetic ankerite within feldspar. This macroporous-dominated lithofacies is the primary reservoir for the Morrow B Sandstone, and is analogous to other porous sandstone reservoirs. It represents an end-member of a chemomechanically low-risk siliceous CO 2 sequestration and CO 2 -EOR reservoir.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing reservoir performance for geologic carbon sequestration in offshore saline reservoirs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technological strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from hydrocarbon-based energy production and non-energy industrial emitters, like fertilizer and cement production. To expand the geographic opportunities for CCS, offshore geologic settings are increasingly considered for saline CO 2 storage, particularly where legacy oil and gas infrastructure may be repurposed for CO 2 transport and injection. In this context, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), United States (U.S.), may offer tremendous opportunity for CCS because the surrounding states are among the largest CO 2 producers in the U.S. and there has been extensive oil and gas development over the last half century. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in how GoM reservoir/seal systems will respond to industrial-scale CO 2 injections, particularly in the context of meso-scale (1–10s of meters) permeability variations that are difficult to identify prior to injection. Such permeability variations can have significant impacts on CO 2 migration and fluid pressure propagation, both of which govern the overall effectiveness of the CCS project. This research uses ensemble simulation methods to quantify the influence of spatially variable and a priori unknown permeability fields on CO 2 plume development and fluid pressure propagation when CO 2 is injected at 1 MMt per year for ten years. Results show a number of characteristic patterns that reveal the substantial influence of both near- and far-field permeability on reservoir performance. By focusing on basin characteristics that are common among offshore basins worldwide, results from this study suggest that offshore CCS may be a feasible carbon management strategy in regions where offshore basins are proximal to industrial CO 2 sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of CO 2 -brine-rock reactions on pore architecture and permeability in dolostone: Implications for CO 2 storage and EOR

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is considered a feasible technology for storing substantive volumes of greenhouse gases in subsurface geological formations. In the reservoir, far from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection wells or in post-injection scenarios, diffusion dominates over advection. This condition conjoins with spatially distributed geochemical reactions to induce heterogeneous changes in pore architecture, i.e. pore body and throat sizes or surface roughness. These changes can affect CO 2 transport properties and storage capacity. In this work, we investigated mineral dissolution and precipitation in dolomite samples saturated with a CO 2 -saturated brine at 93 °C and 34.5 MPa, aged without flow. Two rock types samples, i.e. intergranular- and vuggy-dominant, were selected to investigate changes in pore size, porosity and permeability under reactive conditions. Mineral dissolution and precipitation were characterized using scanning electron microscopy. Changes in pore size were quantified via time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance (TD-NMR) transverse relaxation time (T 2 ) and diffusion coefficient (D) distributions. We show that mineral dissolution likely occurs in highly permeable pathways. These observations are confirmed through analysis of (T 2 ) and diffusion coefficient (D) distributions. In contrast to results during CO 2 -enriched brine continuous injection, mineral precipitation was observed in micropores. The leftward shift of the T 2 peaks, corresponding to micropores, also evidenced mineral precipitation in lowpermeability zones. However, microscale alterations resulted only in a subtle increase in porosity and permeability. Results in this study shed light on effects of geochemical reactions on alteration of rock properties in diffusion-dominated regions during CO 2 storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Determining the extent of potential fugitive fluid migration from geologic carbon storage in hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs: Insights from one-dimensional numerical modeling

Numerical modeling of Geologic Carbon Sequestration in permeable reservoirs initially containing hydrocarbons is conducted using the multi-phase, multi-component thermohydrologic simulator TOGA (TOUGH Oil, Gas, Aqueous; TOUGH stands for Transport Of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat), to determine how phase and composition of the original fluids influence the extent of the zone where upward fugitive fluid migration could potentially occur, denoted R f . The area within R f comprises regions of substantially elevated pressure and free-phase CO 2 saturation, where a breach in reservoir sealing capacity would lead to upward fugitive fluid migration. The model examines the conditions within the storage reservoir that could lead to fugitive flow, but does not model the fugitive flow itself. A one-dimensional radial model of the storage reservoir is used, and three initial phase conditions are considered: single-phase aqueous, two-phase gas-aqueous, and three-phase oil-gas-aqueous. Components that may be present are H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 , C 4 H 10 , and C 10 H 22 . The most important factors controlling Rf are (1) the initial gas-phase saturation within the reservoir, and (2) the lateral extent of multi-phase initial conditions, particularly CO 2 . The composition of liquid and gas phases has a secondary effect. The impact of reservoir depth, thickness, injection rate, and hydrologic properties are also briefly examined, with thickness (or equivalently injection rate) having the biggest effect. These results can help to understand important trends in potential response of CO 2 -EOR fields being considered for dedicated CO 2 storage.

CO₂ plume migration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Basin-scale analysis of Mokelumne River Formation for multi-well CO 2 injection

Large-scale carbon sequestration will likely require multiple projects injecting CO 2 into the same subsurface formation, raising concerns about safe operation and efficient use of storage capacity. This study evaluates the long-term response of the Mokelumne River Formation in California’s Sacramento Basin to multi-megaton CO 2 injection using three geologic models of the formation and the open-source simulator GEOS. The analysis focuses on three aspects of reservoir performance: (1) average pressure increase and dissolved CO 2 mass after 30 years for varying well counts and injection rates, (2) pressure interference in a multi-well configuration, and (3) dynamic storage capacity with identification of overpressure-prone regions. The results show that average formation pressure increases linearly with injected mass, while CO 2 dissolution exhibits mixed scaling: approximately linear with the number of wells but sublinear with injection rate, indicating that distributing injection across more wells enhances dissolution more effectively than increasing per-well rates. Pressure-interference effects are significant, with lower-permeability conditions delaying their onset but amplifying their magnitude at later times. Dynamic capacity, defined by the first occurrence of pressure exceeding the local overburden-based limit anywhere in the formation, varies across geologic models and assumed overburden pressure gradients. A lower fidelity geologic model predicts nearly twice the storage capacity of the two higher fidelity models, which consistently estimate approximately 1 Gt under the upper-bound overburden pressure gradient considered for the Sacramento Basin. In all model scenarios, overpressure develops away from injection wells, particularly in higher-elevation regions, highlighting the importance of basin-scale modelling for identifying risks beyond the immediate well vicinity.

Basin-scale↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of enhanced CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers by WAG and brine extraction in the Minnelusa sandstone, Wyoming

Geological CO 2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers has been extendedly investigated to reach the goal of carbon neutral as large amount of CO 2 can be reduced in a short time. Here, this study investigates the feasibility of water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection and brine extraction on enhancing CO 2 storage in a target deep saline aquifer, Minnelusa Sandstone in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of Wyoming. An integrated numerical model is developed to account for four scenarios: (1) CO 2 continuous injection (CI) through one injection well, (2) WAG injection through one injection well, (3) CO 2 CI through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer, (4) WAG injection through one injection well and brine extraction through one producer. Simulation results suggest that WAG injection and brine extraction corporately make it possible to enhance CO 2 injectivity while securing CO 2 storage safety. For instance, WAG injection considerably reduces structural trapping contribution while enhances dissolved and residual trapping contributions. As for brine extraction, it can decrease the maximum averaged reservoir pressure by 37% and 22% for CI and WAG injection, respectively. Besides, sensitive analyses of the operational parameters for the fourth scenarios are performed. Results reveal that, when the amount of total CO 2 injection has been predetermined, CO 2 injection time and rate within each period of WAG should be small whereas it is preferable to have large water injection time and rate. This is to secure desirable dissolved and residual trapping contributions (store CO 2 with safety). Sensitive degree results confirm that CO 2 injection rate, water injection time, and CO 2 injection time of WAG injection exhibit significant effects on CO 2 storage whereas the impacts of producer bottom-hole pressure (BHP), water injection rate, and CO 2 -water injection time are relatively weaker. This study not only sheds light on achieving double-win goal: enhance CO 2 injectivity and store CO 2 with safety, but also can be a critical reference for other CO 2 storage in deep saline aquifers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning inversion of gravity data for detection of CO 2 plumes in overlying aquifers

In this work, we developed an effective U-Net based deep learning (DL) model for inversion of surface gravity data on a rectangular grid to predict 2-D high-resolution subsurface CO 2 distribution along a vertical cross-section due to CO 2 leakage through a wellbore within a deep CO 2 storage reservoir. We used synthetic data to model two types of CO 2 leakage scenarios: one CO 2 plume in a shallow aquifer (single plume case), and two plumes present at different depths (double plume case). The 3-D synthetic plume samples were created by sampling among predetermined CO 2 plume depths, saturations, and volumes. The corresponding surface gravity data on a rectangular grid were generated by a 3-D forward model. The U-Net model detected 72% of single-plume samples, and one or both plumes in 75% of double-plume samples. Most of the undetected single plumes have small gravity field strengths below the typical noise level of 5 μGal. This model generated reproducible, reliable predictions with acceptable errors and demonstrated improved spatial resolution over the conventional least-squares inversion. In contrast to the conventional least-squares inversion, which often overestimates the size of its target and underestimates its density, this U-Net model accurately delineated the boundary of a target. Furthermore, this DL inversion detected deep, small, or low saturation CO 2 plumes that are often more difficult to resolve with conventional gravity inversion methods. We note the limitations of this feasibility study, including the use of synthetic data with regular CO 2 plume shapes, and the prediction of a 2-D plume cross-section rather than the full 3-D plume, as well, we recognize the lower detection fraction for double-plume scenarios. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that DL gravity inversion is a promising and potentially superior method to conventional least-squares inversion. Our U-Net based deep learning inversion approach may be adapted for inversion of other types of geophysical data. DL inversion can facilitate near real-time monitoring of geologic carbon sequestration to provide site operators with prompt information about subsurface CO 2 distribution for risk management and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Economic and operational investigation of CO 2 sequestration through enhanced oil recovery in unconventional reservoirs in Colorado, USA

The ongoing CCUS commercial projects are highly relied on the support of government incentives due to massive capital investment. Here, this study analyzes the economics of carbon capture utilization and sequestration (CCUS) projects, shows a state-wide CCUS deployment exercise, followed by simulation results of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) based CO 2 storage in unconventional reservoirs. The comprehensive economic analysis of capture, transportation, sequestration costs, enhanced 45Q tax credits, and EOR revenue implies the practicality of CO 2 -EOR to offset the high CCUS costs. With the economics understanding, we study the top CO 2 sources, existing CO 2 pipelines, and sequestration sinks in the state of Colorado, USA. This paper next presents results from EOR simulation in one section of the unconventional Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin Niobrara and Codell reservoirs. The simulation model is based on a geological static model, incorporated with hydraulic fracture stimulation, history matched to production, and calibrated to the microseismic and time-lapse surface seismic data. The CO 2 -EOR simulation results show that oil production can be increased and more CO 2 stored with: a longer primary production period; the presence of a shut-in period; higher injection rates; and multi-well injectors. The modeling results show that about 7–10 Mscf of CO 2 will be stored when recovering 1 stb of EOR oil. By adding the enhanced oil revenue and the carbon credits together, it is estimated that the most economic case can generate $\$13$ MM when oil price is assumed to be $\$80$/stb, and the EOR oil revenue is 3.4 times greater than that generated from 45Q incentives. It corresponds to the scenario that a five-year primary production is followed by CO 2 injection into four wells with the sequence of injection (4 MMscf/day for 6 months), shut-in (6 months) and production (12 months). The best practices in this study will provide valuable insights for similar CCUS projects in other unconventional fields. Furthermore, this study defines a term named “Carbon Neutrality Index (CNI)” by comparing the amount of CO 2 stored with that burned by EOR oil. The CNI value of 0 indicates the enhanced oil is carbon neutral; a negative CNI value implies there is a net reduction in carbon emission. The 4-year huff-n-puff (HnP) simulation leads to a positive CNI value, indicating that the EOR oil generated in this process is not carbon neutral yet.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of geochemical reactions on the creep behavior of Mt. Simon sandstone

The capture and subsurface storage of carbon dioxide is a sustainable option that is currently pursued worldwide to mitigate greenhouse gas effect. However, predicting the long-term mechanical integrity of CO 2 underground storage systems remains a challenge. To address that question, it is essential to understand the influence of fluid-rock chemo-mechanical interactions on the long-term and on the time-dependent mechanical properties. In turn, the long-term mechanical response and the time-dependent mechanical behavior can be represented by the creep response. We investigate the impact of CO 2 -induced geochemical reaction on the creep response of Mt. Simon sandstone with a 50–400 micron grain size. We perform static and dynamic flow experiments on Mt. Simon sandstone specimens under geological conditions, at a temperature of T = 50 - 53 °C and for CO 2 pressures of P = 8:62; 17:2 MPa under both static flow and dynamic flow-through conditions. After aging, we employ creep indentation testing, high-resolution SEM-EDS, computer vision, machine learning, and micromechanics modeling to probe changes on the microstructure and mechanical properties. Following both static and dynamic flow-through experiments, we observe a 10–22% decrease in quartz volume fraction and an increase in both the microporosity (7–28%) and nanoporosity (60–65%). Additional CO 2 -induced microstructural changes include an enlargement of pore throats and the formation of channels. These observations point to the presence of CO 2 -induced K-feldspar dissolution and clay dissolution reactions. Here, the macroscopic creep behavior is logarithmic and the macroscopic creep modulus varies depending on the microporosity and the relative quartz and feldspar content. As a result of these geochemical reactions and of the related microstructural changes, a 55-60% decrease in the macroscopic logarithmic creep modulus is predicted.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The future of subsurface monitoring: AEC’s breakthroughs in CCS technology

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has emerged as a key solution in the fight against climate change. However, for CCS to succeed, it is crucial to ensure that the sequestered CO2 stays safely trapped underground. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has emphasized the need for advancements in subsurface monitoring, measurement, reporting, and verification. Aside from caprock integrity failure, the other primary failure points usually involve defective cement in the casing annulus of wellbores or plugged and abandoned wells. In addition, many energy producers (e.g., oil and gas, geothermal) and storage and disposal operators (e.g., H2 and water) must deal with the same issue. Poorly placed or degraded cement can create pathways for gas or fluid to escape from casing annuli and in plugged and abandoned or orphan wells, posing environmental risks. Yet, a reliable and cost-effective way to monitor cement and well integrity over multiple decades is still unavailable. Traditional geophysical methods like 4D seismic imaging and surface-based electromagnetic monitoring lack the resolution and accuracy for detecting these types of failures (Vasco et al., 2022; Fawad and Mondol, 2021). Wireline logging is expensive to run continuously and is obtrusive to the operation. While fiber optics can potentially be a solution, its bulkiness can significantly compromise the cement's integrity. To address these challenges, the Advanced Energy Consortium (AEC) at The University of Texas at Austin’s Bureau of Economic Geology (the Bureau) has been pioneering research in subsurface monitoring using its portfolio of distributed autonomous microfabricated sensors for harsh subsurface environments since 2008. A class of these microsensors [System on a Chip (SoC)] can be mixed in cement and permanently placed without compromising the cement column; the sensors would then communicate with each other or a data acquisition (DAQ) master node. Another class of the AEC microsensors can be fully autonomous, with rechargeable micro-batteries capable of exceeding 100°C, flash memory, and, currently, a pressure and temperature sensor. They are designed to circulate in mud, geothermal fluids, U-loops, or pipelines. They can log data into memory and are unobtrusive to operations. Our team has been working on a multi-year DOE-funded project (DE-FE0031856)—supported by $2.95M in federal funding and $0.75M in cost-matching from the AEC—to demonstrate SoC sensor utility for CO2 leakage monitoring in CCS applications. This multi-institutional collaboration developed a novel sensing architecture utilizing radiofrequency (RF) microsensors embedded within the cement sheath. These sensors detect CO2 migration and are interrogated via a Smart Casing Collar (SCC).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design and demonstration of a direct air capture system with moisture-driven CO 2 delivery into aqueous medium

Two direct air capture (DAC) systems were designed and demonstrated to passively capture CO 2 from ambient air and use moisture to release the CO2 into an alkaline medium. A bench-scale system delivering ∼1 g CO 2 d –1 was demonstrated in a laminar flow hood, and a small pilot-scale system that could deliver ∼100 g CO 2 d –1 was operated outdoors in a 4.2 m 2 raceway pond. Novel elongated mesh-tube packets containing anion-exchange resin (AER) beads were found to reduce drying and CO 2 loading time 4.3-fold compared to larger mesh bags. Technoeconomic analysis (TEA) estimates the cost of capturing CO 2 into an alkaline solution, suitable for cultivating photosynthetic microorganisms, to be $\$229$ per tonne for a practical scenario based on current results and $\$72$ per tonne for an aspirational scenario considering improvements to sorbent capacity, hydrophobicity, and sorbent lifetime. TEA further estimates an additional $\$110$ per tonne to extract CO 2 from solution, purify it, and compress it to 15 MPa, suitable for sequestration. Furthermore, moisture-driven processes have the potential to use up to 87% less energy than thermal and/or vacuum swing DAC by using energy from water evaporation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of well design and CO 2 injection strategy for risk reduction in Class VI geological carbon sequestration wells

The safety and durability of Class VI wells are critical for geological carbon sequestration (GCS). However, current GCS operations face unique challenges: unlike traditional Class II wells, Class VI CO 2 injection wells operate at rates up to 100 times higher, dramatically increasing the risk of wellbore leakage and structural compromise due to severe temperature drops and associated mechanical stresses. Despite existing guidelines on material selection, there remains a substantial gap in understanding how rapid CO 2 injection rates, low surface temperatures, and variable reservoir conditions interact to threaten long-term well integrity. This study presents a comprehensive, original workflow integrating advanced analytical and numerical models for both well flow and well integrity analysis. By systematically simulating a wide range of field-relevant scenarios—including variations in injection rate, CO 2 temperature, and reservoir pressure—this work provides the first cross-validated assessment of cooling effects on wellbore. The results reveal that extreme temperature drops, up to 60 °C, can occur under high injection rates, particularly in depleted reservoirs, significantly increasing the risk of cement failure. Building on these insights, the study proposes innovative, practical well design and operational strategies, including ductile cement formulations, pre-stressing techniques, advanced insulation coatings, and proactive management of injection rates. The safety of Class VI well extends beyond simply using CO 2 resistant materials. Cement materials should possess optimal thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical properties for effective performance. This work provides a scientific basis for optimizing Class VI well designs, with direct benefits for minimizing environmental risk, lowering operational costs, and enhancing the long-term reliability of GCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗