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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

heat-related mortality↗
NASA NTRS2024

Downscaled and Bias-Adjusted Climate Projections for Afghanistan

Climate change is already having devastating impacts on human communities and natural landscapes, from increasing severity and frequency of natural disasters to drought and desertification that degrade both natural ecosystems and human livelihoods. However, the impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed across the world—some places are at far greater risk than others. These highly vulnerable places should be a higher priority for investments and interventions to help people and nature adapt to changing climatic conditions. Afghanistan is one of the most at-risk countries from climate change. Within the country, the river basins are particularly sensitive as climate change will dramatically alter their water regimes upon which ecosystems and a vast proportion of the Afghan population and millions of people in neighbouring countries rely. As part of an EU-funded project implemented by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), WCS conducted a vulnerability assessment for the Amu Darya River Basin that drains c. 14% of Afghanistan’s land area and is critically important for supporting both people and sensitive biodiversity (Elsen et al., 2023). Central to the vulnerability assessment was the development of downscaled and bias-adjusted climate projections, produced by the Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)1. The climate projections were produced at a much higher resolution (1 km2) than were otherwise available and were tailored to the local environment.

climate projections↗
NASA NTRS2016

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Influence of regional anthropogenic changes over Nile region on the climate system during the late Holocene (~2500 years before present)

The societal impacts of climate change during the late Holocene leads to regional anthropogenic changes over the Nile region floodplain and could have acted in tandem with natural factors like major volcanic eruptions on the regional climate system to magnify the local climatic impacts. This study aims to explore and investigate the sensitivity of climatic changes to the regional anthropogenic changes due to various factors over the Nile river floodplains during the late-Holocene (2.5K years before present). The GISS ModelE Earth system model will be used to simulate the various scenarios of regional increasing/decreasing river fraction, changes in vegetation type and cover, along with changes in land surface type against the no-changes scenario in absence of volcanic eruptions. The spatial coverage of the Nile river basin is estimated using the GIS shapefile based on elevation data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) at 3 Arc-seconds (approx. 90-meter) horizontal resolution. The extent of flooding in the model grid (2.0°x2.5° in latitude and longitude) is estimated using the existing high-resolution (0.125°x0.125°) gridded topographic elevation information and mapped over the Nile river floodplains. This study also focuses on evaluating the NASA GISS ModelE for resolving the climate feedbacks and response on climate system due to anthropogenic changes and volcanic eruptions. It is also aimed to analyze and quantify the impact of various anthropogenic factors over the African monsoon system and rainfall over the region, which feeds the Nile River.

Anthropogenic changes↗
NASA NTRS2022

Powering the Future of Electric Aviation

Aviation is one of the largest contributors to climate change on this planet, responsible for nearly 5% of the global warming impact on Earth. As the aviation sector is projected to grow and as new aircraft are introduced, aviation’s impact on climate change will only increase. Without sustainable alternatives implemented in the near future, aviation could strongly contribute to making this planet uninhabitable. This paper examines the possibilities of electric aviation and other power sources in reducing the impact of aviation on climate change. Although there are many power sources for aircraft, electricity is the most effective and sustainable power source. Electric aviation, however, is still relatively new, and there are limitations with electric power, such as battery size, energy density, and charging. This paper dives deeper into the applications and factors to consider for the implementation of electric aircraft into the current society, as well as a potential solution to accelerate the process. Specifically, our research finds that hydrogen fuel cells, despite a few limitations, provide the amount of energy necessary to develop capable and sustainable electric aircraft in a manner that may be the most feasible.

electric aviation↗
NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty in Land-Use Adaptation Persists Despite Crop Model Projections Showing Lower Impacts Under High Warming

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields and alter resource availability. However, the understanding of the potential of agricultural land-use adaptation and its costs under climate warming is limited. Here, we use a global land system model to assess land-use-based adaptation and its cost under a set of crop model projections, including CO2 fertilization, based on climate model outputs. In our simulations of a low-emissions scenario, the land system responds through slight changes in cropland area in 2100, with costs close to zero. For a high emissions scenario and impacts uncertainty, the response tends toward cropland area changes and investments in technology, with average adaptation costs between −1.5 and +19 US$05 per ton of dry matter per year. Land-use adaptation can reduce adverse climate effects and use favorable changes, like local gains in crop yields. However, variance among high-emissions impact projections creates challenges for effective adaptation planning.

Agriculture↗
NASA NTRS2005

NCAR Johns Hopkins/CDC Climate and Health Summer Institute

The interactions between climate and health are rife with complexity and present many conceptual and methodological challenges. Possible effects of climate change on health are considered some of the most sensitive impacts of climate change and are a high priority for policy-makers and the public. As a first step toward improving tlit: quality of research, we developed a Climate and Health Workshop (Institute), geared toward teaching students various aspects of how to conduct integrated climate and health research. At the workshop scientists presented selected case studies of climate and health (e.g., heat mortality, vector-borne diseases), thus demonstrating a subset of key analytical tools and databases most useful to researchers in this field. Key research gaps in this research area were discussed. In this six-day Institute (21-28 July 2004, Boulder, Colorado), health scientists and students benefited from lectures and hands-on tools taught by top NCAR scientists. The attendees learned about health databases and epidemiologic methods from leading health scientists from CDC, Johns Hopkins, and other institutions from around the globe.

Mearns, Linda O.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Ontology Engineering in Provenance Enablement for the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) analyzes and presents the impacts of climate change on the United States. The provenance information in the assessment is important because the assessment findings are of great public and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology, we developed information models and ontology to represent the content structure of the recent National Climate Assessment draft report and its associated provenance information. We tested the ontology by using it in pilot systems serving information about instances of chapters, scientific findings, figures, tables, images, datasets, references, people, and organizations, etc. in the draft report, as well as interrelationships among those instances. The results successfully help users trace provenance in the draft report, such as finding all the journal articles from which a figure in the report was derived. The provenance information in our work was maintained in the context of the "Web of Data". In addition to the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to retrieve and utilize the provenance information. Our work is part of a Global Change Information System coordinated by the USGCRP that will eventually cover provenance information for the entire scope of global change research. Such a system will greatly increase understanding, credibility and trust in the global change research and foster reproducibility of scientific results and conclusions.

Ontology engineering↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2018

Distinct Influences of Land Cover and Land Management on Seasonal Climate

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change is primarily represented in climate model simulations through prescribed transitions from natural vegetation to cropland or pasture. However, recent studies have demonstrated that land management practices, especially irrigation, have distinct climate impacts. Here we disentangle the seasonal climate impacts of land cover change and irrigation across areas of high agricultural intensity using climate simulations with three different land surface scenarios: (1) natural vegetation cover/no irrigation, (2) year 2000 crop cover/no irrigation, and (3) year 2000 crop cover and irrigation rates. We find that irrigation substantially amplifies land cover‐induced climate impacts but has opposing effects across certain regions. Irrigation mostly causes surface cooling, which substantially amplifies land cover change‐induced cooling in most regions except over Central, West, and South Asia, where it reverses land cover change‐induced warming. Despite increases in net surface radiation in some regions, this cooling is associated with enhancement of latent relative to sensible heat fluxes by irrigation. Similarly, irrigation substantially enhances the wetting influence of land cover change over several regions including West Asia and the Mediterranean. The most notable contrasting impacts of these forcings on precipitation occur over South Asia, where irrigation offsets the wetting influence of land cover during the monsoon season. Differential changes in regional circulations and moist static energy induced by these forcings contribute to their precipitation impacts and are associated with differential changes in surface and tropospheric temperature gradients and moisture availability. These results emphasize the importance of including irrigation forcing to evaluate the combined impacts of land surface changes for attributing historical climatic changes and managing future impacts.

Singh, Deepti↗
NASA NTRS2007

Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been annunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAPs) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy matters, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are authors on a SAP describing the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the elements of our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

An analysis of the impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional tropospheric ozone

Many of the synergistic impacts resulting from future changes in emissions as well as changes in ambient temperature, moisture, and UV flux have not been quantified. A three-dimensional regional-scale photo-chemical model (STEM-2) is used in this study to evaluate these perturbations to trace gas cycles over the eastern half of the United States of America. The model was successfully used to simulate a regional-scale ozone episode (base case - June 1984) and four perturbations scenarios - viz., perturbed emissions, temperature, water vapor column, and incoming UV flux cases, and a future scenario (for the year 2034). The impact of these perturbation scenarios on the distribution of ozone and other major pollutants such as SO2 and sulfates were analyzed in detail. The spatial distribution and the concentration of ozone at the surface increased by about 5-15 percent for most cases except for the perturbed water vapor case. The regional scale surface ozone concentration distribution for the year 2034 (future scenario) showed an increase of non-attainment areas. The rural areas of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Georgia showed the largest change in the surface ozone field for the futuristic scenario when compared to the base case.

John, Kuruvilla↗
NASA NTRS1992

A model of the CO2 exchanges between biosphere and atmosphere in the tundra

A physical model of the soil thermal regime in a permafrost terrain has been developed and validated with soil temperature measurements at Barrow, Alaska. The model calculates daily soil temperatures as a function of depth and average moisture contents of the organic and mineral layers using a set of five climatic variables, i.e., air temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, wind speed, and relative humidity. The model is not only designed to study the impact of climate change on the soil temperature and moisture regime, but also to provide the input to a decomposition and net primary production model. In this context, it is well known that CO2 exchanges between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere are driven by soil temperature through decomposition of soil organic matter and root respiration. However, in tundra ecosystems, net CO2 exchange is extremely sensitive to soil moisture content; therefore it is necessary to predict variations in soil moisture in order to assess the impact of climate change on carbon fluxes. To this end, the present model includes the representation of the soil moisture response to changes in climatic conditions. The results presented in the foregoing demonstrate that large errors in soil temperature and permafrost depth estimates arise from neglecting the dependence of the soil thermal regime on soil moisture contents. Permafrost terrain is an example of a situation where soil moisture and temperature are particularly interrelated: drainage conditions improve when the depth of the permafrost increases; a decrease in soil moisture content leads to a decrease in the latent heat required for the phase transition so that the heat penetrates faster and deeper, and the maximum depth of thaw increases; and as excepted, soil thermal coefficients increase with moisture.

Labgaa, Rachid R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, and Urbanization on Wetland Habitat in the Platte River Basin​

The Platte River Basin (PRB) is a dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for various flora and fauna, including local and migratory birds. It provides many crucial ecosystem services that benefit humans directly and indirectly. However, anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization have resulted in decline in wildlife habitat, elevated flood risk, and wetland loss. To address this issue, NASA DEVELOP partnered with Audubon Great Plains (AGP) to address the vital habitats within urban areas to protect bird species, reduce flood hazards, and analyze the potential impact of future development on wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to assess land use and land cover (LULC) change. Nighttime lights data from Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) population data were also used as inputs to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. A broad scale analysis across 13 focal cities showed varied changes in land use patterns across the PRB, with the most notable being a decrease in agricultural land coverage and an increase in vegetation and grassland coverage. We overlaid a flood extent map with the LULC classifications in Grand Island to identify possible restoration sites under AGP’s Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative. The results for two proposed scenarios showed that at least 51 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by year 2050. The first scenario (all wetlands are protected) showed that there will be no loss of wetlands by 2050. However, the second scenario (no wetlands are protected) showed a decrease in wetland area and loss of habitat for bird conservation. The results will help AGP to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies in the future.​

Nancee Uniyal↗
NASA NTRS2021

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interconnected Hydrologic Extreme Drivers and Impacts Depicted By Remote Sensing Data Assimilation

In a changing climate, the likelihood of hydrologic extremes has been increasing as climate change can impact both means and extremes4 of hydrologic cycle processes, potentially resulting in an increased frequency of floods in some regions and decreases in others. In a warming world, the physical processes that affect hydrologic response, such as rain-on snow runoff events, are also changing, such that the seasonality of streamflow has been shifting. The geography of rain-on-snow runoff events is predicted to move from low to high elevations. In addition to floods, there is also potential for an increase in dry extremes in a warming world with increased drought frequency and occurrences in many parts of the world. The increased frequency of drought and heatwave events is expected to have consequences such as escalating crop failures in future projection scenarios1. Thus, the consensus of literature shows that climate change is increasing the magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events, and the human influence in many of these events is substantial.

Timothy M. Lahmers↗
NASA NTRS2020

Burning Embers: Towards More Transparent and Robust Climate-change Risk Assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers.

burning embers diagram↗