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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Performance of Gaussian Plume and Backward Lagrangian Stochastic Models for Near-Field Methane Emission Estimation Using a Single Controlled Release Experiment

Methane (CH 4 ) is a major component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas. Increasing atmospheric methane concentrations are attributed to emissive anthropogenic activities by an average of 13 ppb per yr since 2020 and are linked to a changing global climate. Mitigating CH 4 emissions from oil and gas production sites has recently become a target to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions; however, monitoring the efficacy of mitigation strategies depends on accurate quantification of CH 4 emissions at the facility-level. Near-field quantification of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from oil and gas (O&G) facilities remains challenging due to the effects of atmospheric variability and sensor configuration on atmospheric dispersion models. This study evaluates the performance of two atmospheric dispersion models, the Gaussian plume (GP) and backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS), by comparing calculated CH 4 emissions to controlled single-point emissions between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h −1 . Emissions were calculated by both models using 121 individual sets of measurements comprising five-minute averaged downwind methane mixing ratios and matching meteorological data. The comparison shows that the bLS approach achieved a higher proportion of emission estimates within a factor of two (FAC2) of the known emission rates compared to the GP approach. The emissions calculated by the bLS model also had a lower multiplicative error and reduced bias relative to GP. Other error-based metrics further confirmed the bLS model performed better, as it yielded lower RMSE and MAE than GP. Statistical analysis of the emission data shows that the lateral and vertical alignment of the source and the sensor plays a critical role in emission estimations, as measurements made closer to the plume centerline and at a distance between 40 and 80 m downwind yielded the best FAC2 agreement. High wind meander degraded the ability of both approaches to generate representative emissions, particularly with the GP approach, as it violates the modeling approach’s assumption of steady-state emissions. Data suggest emissions calculated by the bLS model are comprehensively in better agreement, but the computational demands of the modeling approach and integration into fenceline systems limit real-time applicability. While these results provide insight into model performance under controlled near-field conditions, their applicability to more complex or heterogeneous oil and gas production environments (e.g., the regions Marcellus or Unita Basins) remains limited and uncertain.

gaussian plume↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Accounting for distributive justice in model-based decision support

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Kwakkel, Jan H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2 C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2 C scenario to 1.5 C or could achieve 2 C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 +/- 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with approx.40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and greater than 200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Atmospheric science↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Mangrove Aboveground Biomass from Airborne LiDAR Data: a Case Study from the Zambezi River Delta

Mangroves are ecologically and economically important forested wetlands with the highest carbon (C) density of all terrestrial ecosystems. Because of their exceptionally large C stocks and importance as a coastal buffer, their protection and restoration has been proposed as an effective mitigation strategy for climate change. The inclusion of mangroves in mitigation strategies requires the quantification of C stocks (both above and belowground) and changes to accurately calculate emissions and sequestration. A growing number of countries are becoming interested in using mitigation initiatives, such as REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), in these unique coastal forests. However, it is not yet clear how methods to measure C traditionally used for other ecosystems can be modified to estimate biomass in mangroves with the precision and accuracy needed for these initiatives. Airborne Lidar (ALS) data has often been proposed as the most accurate way for larger scale assessments but the application of ALS for coastal wetlands is scarce, primarily due to a lack of contemporaneous ALS and field measurements. Here, we evaluated the variability in field and Lidar-based estimates of aboveground biomass (AGB) through the combination of different local and regional allometric models and standardized height metrics that are comparable across spatial resolutions and sensor types, the end result being a simplified approach for accurately estimating mangrove AGB at large scales and determining the uncertainty by combining multiple allometric models.We then quantified wall-to-wall AGB stocks of a tall mangrove forest in the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. Our results indicate that the Lidar H100 height metric correlates well with AGB estimates, with R(exp 2) between 0.80 and 0.88 and RMSE of 33% or less. When comparing Lidar H100 AGB derived from three allometric models, mean AGB values range from 192 Mg ha(exp −1) up to 252 Mg ha(exp −1).We suggest the best model to predict AGB was based on the East Africa specific allometry and a power-based regression that used Lidar H100 as the height input with an R(exp 2) of 0.85 and an RMSE of 122 Mg ha(exp −1) or 33%. The total AGB of the Lidar inventoried mangrove area (6654 ha) was 1 350 902 Mg with a mean AGB of 203 Mg ha(exp −1) +/-166 Mg ha(exp −1). Because the allometry suggested here was developed using standardized height metrics, it is recommended that the models can generate AGB estimates using other remote sensing instruments that are more readily accessible over other mangrove ecosystems on a large scale, and as part of future carbon monitoring efforts in mangroves.

Fatoyinbo, Temilola↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Earth System Observatory Formulation Overview

NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) is an array of Earth-focused, interconnected satellite missions focused on five core study areas: Surface Biology and Geology, Mass Change, Aerosols, Surface Deformation and Change, and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. Observatory development follows recommendations from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine’s 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Data gathered by ESO missions will provide actionable science to inform decisions related to climate change, disaster mitigation, and wildfires, improve real-time agricultural processes, and many other applications. Targeting launch dates in the late 2020s and early 2030s, each ESO satellite will deliver valuable information, but by working together as a single observatory system, their combined data and imagery will provide the global community with a 4D, holistic view of Earth, from bedrock to atmosphere. The ESO is also building on the legacy of international collaboration in Earth science, with initial participation and collaboration on these missions across space agency partners, including the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), and Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI). This paper provides an overview of ESO, as well as an update on ESO missions currently in formulation – the Atmosphere Observing System, Mass Change, and Surface Biology and Geology elements – including current mission architectures, international partner collaboration, science community engagement, and applications efforts, as well as how NASA and its partners will make ESO data accessible to users all over the world.

NASA Earth Science↗
NASA NTRS2024

Pathways for urgent action towards climate resilient development

There is a closing window of opportunity to ensure a sustainable future for all, with deep and rapid action needed this decade. Inclusive and just climate resilient development advances sustainable development and keeps open pathways to a liveable planet but requires urgent and fundamental shifts in prevailing development politics and practice.

Climate-change mitigation↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Benefits of Incorporating Shipping Containers into the Climate Change Adaption Plans at NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has several centers and facilities located near the coast that are undoubtedly susceptible to climate change. One of those facilities is Wallops Flight Facility on the Eastern Shore of Virginia which is separated into three areas: Main Base, Mainland, and the Island. Wallops Island has numerous buildings and assets that are vulnerable to flood inundation, intense storms, and storm surge. The shoreline of Wallops Island is prone to beach erosion and is slated for another beach replenishment project in 2019. In addition, current climate projections for NASAs centers and facilities, conducted by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators, warn of inevitable increases in annual temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events such as heat waves. The aforementioned vulnerabilities Wallops Island faces in addition to the projections of future climate change reveal an urgency for NASA to adjust how new buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast are built to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change. Although the agency has made strides to mitigate the effects of climate change by incorporating L.E.E.D. into new buildings that produce less greenhouse gas, the strides for the agency to institute clear climate adaptation policies for the buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast seem to lag behind. As NASA continues to formulate formidable climate change adaptation plans for its centers and facilities, an architectural trend that should be examined for its potential to replace several old buildings at Wallops Island is shipping containers buildings. Shipping containers or Intermodal Steel Building Units offer an array of benefits such as strength, durability, versatility, modular, and since they can be upcycled, they are also eco-friendly. Some disadvantages of shipping containers are they contain harmful chemicals, insulation must be added, fossil fuels must be used to transport them to the site, and multiple ISBUs are needed. However, the benefits of shipping container buildings could be utilized at NASA centers or facilities near the coast such as Wallops Island on new buildings that are designed to adapt to the impending effects of climate change. Thus, this Masters Research Project will explore how those benefits can be incorporated into the climate change adaptation plans at Wallops Island and make recommendations for policy guidelines and shipping container buildings specific to Wallops Island.

Sustainable Design↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating the Impacts of Increasing Temperatures and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates with Deep Learning

As urbanization and climate change progress, understanding and addressing urban heat becomes a priority for climate adaptation efforts. High temperatures concentrated in the urban core can drive increased risk of heat-related death and illness as well as increased energy demand for cooling. However, modeling the urban microclimate is an ongoing field of research typically burdened by an imprecise description of the built environment, incomplete observational records, significant computational cost, and a lack of high-resolution estimates of the impacts of increasing temperatures. Here, we present computationally efficient machine learning methods that can improve the accuracy of urban temperature estimates when compared to historical reanalysis data. These models are applied to a neighborhood in Los Angeles, and we compare the energy benefits of heat mitigation strategies to the impacts of climate change. We find that cooling demand is likely to increase substantially through midcentury, but engineered high-albedo surfaces could lessen this increase by more than 50 %. The corresponding increase in winter gas heating offsets the summer cooling benefit in the current climate, but total annual energy use from combined heating and cooling with electric heat pumps benefits from the engineered heat mitigation strategies under both current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Preface

The potential effects of climate change on the food production system are raising concern both globally and regionally. The system is already challenged to deliver sufficient and healthy sustenance to all people, and is certain to be even further challenged as world population grows and price shocks loom. The prospect of climate change intensifies these challenges, raising the risk that more frequent and intense extreme weather events threaten the stability of agricultural production in regions around the globe. This two-part set is an important contribution to the ongoing Imperial College Press (ICP) Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. This series aims to provide the know ledge base necessary for understanding and responding to climate change, in both its current form and future manifestations. In these volumes, ·leading agricultural researchers have come together to contribute their expertise on actual and potential climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation efforts. This ongoing series is jointly published by The American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA), together with ICP. We hope that this fruitful cooperation will continue for many years to come, as it spurs the global effort to define and meet the great food security and climate change challenges of our time.

farmlands↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Managing Traffic on the Three-Way Street: Steps Toward Closing the Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Gap

Understanding changes in the radiative forcing of climate is critical for any effort to attribute, mitigate, or predict climate change. Although greenhouse gases (GHGs) contribute most of the radiative forcing, uncertainty in the climate forcing by airborne particles (aerosols) dominates the uncertainty in forcing changes overall. Yet, aerosol forcing has remained virtually undiminished for more than 20 years despite considerable advances in most of the key contributing elements. Satellite and suborbital measurements, as well as modeling, each have essential roles to play in reducing the uncertainty in the aerosol forcing of climate. This presentation will begin by briefly covering the reasons why aerosols are important for climate study, and will then summarize what we are learning about aerosols from current satellite remote-sensing work, and allude to the roles of suborbital measurements and models. Emphasis will be placed on nascent efforts to link satellite data with models, the need to continue as planned current programs supporting advanced, global-scale satellite and surface-based aerosol and precursor gas observations, climate modeling, as well as intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing the underlying physical and chemical processes involved. The talk will conclude by highlighting new efforts needed to obtain systematic in situ measurements of aerosol microphysical and chemical properties, along with a greater research focus on integrating the unique contributions of measurements and modeling toward reducing the aerosol climate forcing uncertainty gap.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Submesoscale-Climate Connections

In this talk, I will present a brief overview of some recent results and current research priorities regarding the significant participation of upper ocean / submesoscale processes in regional to global Earth system dynamics in a warming climate, such as ocean overturning, biogeochemistry, and heat and carbon uptake as well as atmospheric, coastal, and cryospheric dynamics. In addition to reviewing the evidence for these links by topic, I will highlight how advances in both understanding and prediction are derived from the integrated triad of process studies, modeling, and regional and global observing systems. Finally, I will discuss how triadic investments focused on these upper ocean processes might lead to better-informed decision-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Overview↗
NASA NTRS2023

Heat Stress to Jeopardize Crop Production in the US Corn Belt Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Projections

CONTEXT Global food security faces increasing challenges from the changing climate. Changes of agricultural output from some of the most productive regions such as the US Corn Belt can largely affect the world's food market. Developing predictive understanding of the agricultural risk of climate change and potential mitigation strategies is critical for the global food security. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to assess the responses of maize and soybean yield to projected climate changes in the Corn Belt, identify the shifting environment stressors on crop yield, and tackle potential climate adaptation strategies. METHODS We drive a process-based model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, with high-resolution statistically downscaled and bias-corrected historical and future climates from ten CMIP5 models in the MACA-2 database. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The multi-model ensemble mean suggests a 12% decrease of maize yield by mid-century and 40% by late century, with a high degree of model consensus in the direction of changes; for individual models, the projected decrease of maize yield by late century ranges from <5% to over 80%, with the worst crop outcome corresponding to the most sensitive climate models. Soybean yield is projected to increase by midcentury with a high degree of model consensus, but such consensus is lost by late century as some projections shift to significant decreases. Crop yield in the Corn Belt is currently limited by water stress, but is projected to be increasingly limited by heat stress as well after the midcentury. The mounting heat stress will drive the most productive zone for maize to shift from central to northern part of the Corn Belt, but the projected increase in the northern states cannot fully compensate for the decrease in the south, causing the total production to decrease if agricultural practice stays the same. Earlier planting can alleviate only a small fraction of the heat-induced crop loss in a warmer climate. Climate change will (at least partially) offset the yield boost caused by agricultural technology and intensification. SIGNIFICANCE This study advances our predictive understanding of crop yield responses to climate change, and suggests that a multitude of strategies will be needed to address the climate change challenges for the U.S. agriculture.

Crop yield↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

Shindell, Drew↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70_ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2:5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65_ N are larger than emissions from heanthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60_ N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65_ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000−7.04 million deaths and 80−240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

nuclear power plants↗
NASA NTRS2020

Diversity Buffers Winegrowing Regions from Climate Change Losses

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

Morales-Castilla, Ignacio↗