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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Tomographic constraints on gravity from angular redshift fluctuations in the late Universe

Fluctuations in sky maps of galaxy redshifts, dubbed angular redshift fluctuations (ARF), contain precise information about the growth rate of structures and the nature of gravity in the Universe. Specifically, ARFs constrain the combination of cosmological parameters H/H 0 fσ 8 (z), while being an intrinsically tomographic probe and largely insensitive to many observational systematic errors, all without requiring the assumption of any redshift-to-distance relation under a given fiducial cosmology. We present the first cosmological constraints derived from ARF by using Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) LOWZ(Low redshift(Z))+CMASS(Constant MASS) DR12(Data Release 12) galaxy samples, obtaining 7 per cent accurate constraints on H/H 0 fσ 8 (z) at more than 20 redshifts over the range z ϵ [0.26, 0.72]. Our best-fitting value is 10 per cent larger, but compatible at the 1.4σ level, than the ΛCDM expectation set by Planck observations of cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation. In conclusion, our tomographic measurements, combined with these CMB data, provide one of the strongest constraints on the gravity index γ, $\gamma =0.44^{+0.09}_{-0.07}$, which lies within 2σ of the prediction of General Relativity (γGR ≃ 0.55).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Hadronic light by light contribution to the (g-2){sub {mu}} with holographic models of QCD

We study the anomalous electromagnetic pion form factor F{sub {pi}}{sup 0}{sub {gamma}}{sup *}{sub {gamma}}{sup *} with a set of holographic models. By comparing with the measured value of the linear slope, some of these models can be ruled out. From the remaining models, we obtain predictions for the low-energy quadratic slope parameters of F{sub {pi}}{sup 0}{sub {gamma}}{sup *}{sub {gamma}}{sup *}, currently out of experimental reach but testable in the near future. We find it particularly useful to encode this low-energy information in a form factor able to satisfy also QCD short-distance constraints. We choose the form factor introduced by D'Ambrosio, Isidori, and Portoles in kaon decays, which has the right short distance for a particular value of the quadratic slope, which is later shown to be compatible with our holographic predictions. We then turn to a determination of the (dominant) pion exchange diagram in the hadronic light by light scattering contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment. We quantify the theoretical uncertainty in (g-2){sub {mu}} coming from the different input we use: QCD short distances, experimental input, and low-energy holographic predictions. We also test the pion-pole approximation. Our final result is a{sub {mu}}{sup {pi}0}=6.54(25)x10{sup -10}, where the error is driven by the linear slope of F{sub {pi}}{sup 0}{sub {gamma}}{sup *}{sub {gamma}}{sup *}, soon to be measured with precision at KLOE-2. Our numerical analysis also indicates that large values of the magnetic susceptibility {chi}{sub 0} are disfavored, therefore pointing at a mild effect from the pion off-shellness. However, in the absence of stronger bounds on {chi}{sub 0}, an additional (10-15)% systematic uncertainty on the previous value for a{sub {mu}}{sup {pi}0} cannot be excluded.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

CRAB NEBULA: FIVE-YEAR OBSERVATION WITH ARGO-YBJ

The ARGO-YBJ air shower detector monitored the Crab Nebula gamma-ray emission from 2007 November to 2013 February. The integrated signal, consisting of ∼3.3 × 10{sup 5} events, reached the statistical significance of 21.1 standard deviations. The obtained energy spectrum in the energy range 0.3-20 TeV can be described by a power law function dN/dE = I {sub 0} (E/2 TeV){sup –α}, with a flux normalization I {sub 0} = (5.2 ± 0.2) × 10{sup –12} photons cm{sup –2} s{sup –1} TeV{sup –1} and α = 2.63 ± 0.05, corresponding to an integrated flux above 1 TeV of 1.97 × 10{sup –11} photons cm{sup –2} s{sup –1}. The systematic error is estimated to be less than 30% for the flux normalization and 0.06 for the spectral index. Assuming a power law spectrum with an exponential cutoff dN/dE = I {sub 0} (E/2 TeV){sup –α} exp (–E/E {sub cut}), the lower limit of the cutoff energy E {sub cut} is 12 TeV, at 90% confidence level. Our extended data set allows the study of the TeV emission over long timescales. Over five years, the light curve of the Crab Nebula in 200-day bins is compatible with a steady emission with a probability of 7.3 × 10{sup –2}. A correlated analysis with Fermi-LAT data over ∼4.5 yr using the light curves of the two experiments gives a Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.56 ± 0.22. Concerning flux variations on timescales of days, a ''blind'' search for flares with a duration of 1-15 days gives no excess with a significance higher than four standard deviations. The average rate measured by ARGO-YBJ during the three most powerful flares detected by Fermi-LAT is 205 ± 91 photons day{sup –1}, consistent with the average value of 137 ± 10 day{sup –1}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesh-based super-resolution of fluid flows with multiscale graph neural networks

A graph neural network (GNN) approach is introduced in this work which enables mesh-based three-dimensional super-resolution of fluid flows. In this framework, the GNN is designed to operate not on the full mesh-based field at once, but on localized meshes of elements (or cells) directly. To facilitate mesh-based GNN representations in a manner similar to spectral (or finite) element discretizations, a baseline GNN layer (termed a message passing layer, which updates local node properties) is modified to account for synchronization of coincident graph nodes, rendering compatibility with commonly used element-based mesh connectivities. Furthermore, the architecture is multiscale in nature, and is comprised of a combination of coarse-scale and fine-scale message passing layer sequences (termed processors) separated by a graph unpooling layer. The coarse-scale processor embeds a query element (alongside a set number of neighboring coarse elements) into a single latent graph representation using coarse-scale synchronized message passing over the element neighborhood, and the fine-scale processor leverages additional message passing operations on this latent graph to correct for interpolation errors. Demonstration studies are performed using hexahedral mesh-based data from Taylor–Green Vortex and backward-facing step flow simulations at Reynolds numbers of 1600 and 3200. Through analysis of both global and local errors, the results ultimately show how the GNN is able to produce accurate super-resolved fields compared to targets in both coarse-scale and multiscale model configurations. Reconstruction errors for fixed architectures were found to increase in proportion to the Reynolds number. Geometry extrapolation studies on a separate cavity flow configuration show promising cross-mesh capabilities of the super-resolution strategy.

Backward-facing step↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pool boiling heat transfer evaluation of next-generation dielectric fluid: Opteon™ 2P50

The growing use of artificial intelligence has led to heavy thermal loads and high heat dissipation rates in data centers. Conventional air-cooled technologies are not able to fulfill these requirements. To overcome these challenges, two-phase immersion cooling (2PIC) has emerged as one of the leading technologies for high power-density chips. 2PIC increases the heat dissipation rate and efficiency of the system while reducing the footprint of the cooling equipment. A fluid with adequate dielectric properties, a suitable normal boiling temperature to maintain chip temperatures, and good material compatibility, is desired for 2PIC system. In this study, the pool boiling heat transfer of a new developmental dielectric fluid, Opteon™ 2P50, was experimentally investigated. The heat transfer coefficients at various heat fluxes (20–150 kW/m 2 ) and the critical heat flux were measured using a smooth aluminum surface. Compared with HFE-7100, Opteon™ 2P50 shows higher heat transfer coefficient (up to 59% higher) and a slightly lower value of critical heat flux (around 5.9% lower). The modified Cooper correlation with the optimized leading constant resulted in reliable prediction accuracy with a 5.3% mean absolute error percentage. Overall, these results indicate that the new dielectric fluid provides similar thermal performance to some legacy fluids.

2P50↗
DOE OSTI2014

RELAP5-3D Developer Guidelines and Programming Practices

Our ultimate goal is to create and maintain RELAP5-3D as the best software tool available to analyze nuclear power plants. This begins with writing excellent programming and requires thorough testing. This document covers development of RELAP5-3D software, the behavior of the RELAP5-3D program that must be maintained, and code testing. RELAP5-3D must perform in a manner consistent with previous code versions with backward compatibility for the sake of the users. Thus file operations, code termination, input and output must remain consistent in form and content while adding appropriate new files, input and output as new features are developed. As computer hardware, operating systems, and other software change, RELAP5-3D must adapt and maintain performance. The code must be thoroughly tested to ensure that it continues to perform robustly on the supported platforms. The coding must be written in a consistent manner that makes the program easy to read to reduce the time and cost of development, maintenance and error resolution. The programming guidelines presented her are intended to institutionalize a consistent way of writing FORTRAN code for the RELAP5-3D computer program that will minimize errors and rework. A common format and organization of program units creates a unifying look and feel to the code. This in turn increases readability and reduces time required for maintenance, development and debugging. It also aids new programmers in reading and understanding the program. Therefore, when undertaking development of the RELAP5-3D computer program, the programmer must write computer code that follows these guidelines. This set of programming guidelines creates a framework of good programming practices, such as initialization, structured programming, and vector-friendly coding. It sets out formatting rules for lines of code, such as indentation, capitalization, spacing, etc. It creates limits on program units, such as subprograms, functions, and modules. It establishes documentation guidance on internal comments. The guidelines apply to both existing and new subprograms. They are written for both FORTRAN 77 and FORTRAN 95. The guidelines are not so rigorous as to inhibit a programmer’s unique style, but do restrict the variations in acceptable coding to create sufficient commonality that new readers will find the coding in each new subroutine familiar. It is recognized that this is a “living” document and must be updated as languages, compilers, and computer hardware and software evolve.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Nanoparticle Suspension Viscoelasticity for Multimaterial 3D Printing of Silica–Titania Glass

A lack of predictive methodology is frequently a major bottleneck in materials development for additive manufacturing. Hence, exploration of new printable materials often relies on the serendipity of trial and error approaches, which is time-consuming, labor-intensive, and costly. In this paper, we present an approach to overcome these issues by quantifying and controlling the viscoelasticity of inks for multimaterial 3D printing of silica–titania glass using direct ink writing (DIW). We formulate simple silica and silica–titania inks from a suspension of fumed silica nanoparticles in an organic solvent with a dissolved molecular titania precursor. We use a small set of experimental rheological data and estimates of interaction potentials from colloidal theory to develop a predictive tool that allows us to design and obtain compatible inks that are matched both in desired rheological properties (viscosity profiles and elastic modulus) as well as solids loading. The model incorporates silica particle volume fraction, particle size, particle size distribution, and titania precursor concentration, and captures the effects of all formulation parameters on the measured viscoelasticity in a single curve. We validate the ink formulations predicted by the model and find that the materials can be very well matched in rheological properties as desired for 3D printing. Using the DIW and heat treatment methods we have reported previously, we use these inks to print and process a fully transparent glass with spatial change in dopant composition and refractive index. Finally, we believe that this approach can be extended to other colloidal systems and allow predictive ink formulation design for desired printability in direct ink write manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Computational Particle Dynamic Simulations on Multicore Processors (CPDMu) Final Report Phase I

Statement of Problem - Department of Energy has many legacy codes for simulation of computational particle dynamics and computational fluid dynamics applications that are designed to run on sequential processors and are not easily parallelized. Emerging high-performance computing architectures employ massively parallel multicore architectures (e.g., graphics processing units) to increase throughput. Parallelization of legacy simulation codes is a high priority, to achieve compatibility, efficiency, accuracy, and extensibility. General Statement of Solution - A legacy simulation application designed for implementation on mainly-sequential processors has been represented as a graph G. Mathematical transformations, applied to G, produce a graph representation {und G} for a high-performance architecture. Key computational and data movement kernels of the application were analyzed/optimized for parallel execution using the mapping G {yields} {und G}, which can be performed semi-automatically. This approach is widely applicable to many types of high-performance computing systems, such as graphics processing units or clusters comprised of nodes that contain one or more such units. Phase I Accomplishments - Phase I research decomposed/profiled computational particle dynamics simulation code for rocket fuel combustion into low and high computational cost regions (respectively, mainly sequential and mainly parallel kernels), with analysis of space and time complexity. Using the research team's expertise in algorithm-to-architecture mappings, the high-cost kernels were transformed, parallelized, and implemented on Nvidia Fermi GPUs. Measured speedups (GPU with respect to single-core CPU) were approximately 20-32X for realistic model parameters, without final optimization. Error analysis showed no loss of computational accuracy. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits - The proposed research will constitute a breakthrough in solution of problems related to efficient parallel computation of particle and fluid dynamics simulations. These problems occur throughout DOE, military and commercial sectors: the potential payoff is high. We plan to license or sell the solution to contractors for military and domestic applications such as disaster simulation (aerodynamic and hydrodynamic), Government agencies (hydrological and environmental simulations), and medical applications (e.g., in tomographic image reconstruction). Keywords - High-performance Computing, Graphic Processing Unit, Fluid/Particle Simulation. Summary for Members of Congress - Department of Energy has many simulation codes that must compute faster, to be effective. The Phase I research parallelized particle/fluid simulations for rocket combustion, for high-performance computing systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Establishing a process of irradiating small animal brain using a CyberKnife and a microCT scanner

Purpose: Establish and validate a process of accurately irradiating small animals using the CyberKnife G4 System (version 8.5) with treatment plans designed to irradiate a hemisphere of a mouse brain based on microCT scanner images. Methods: These experiments consisted of four parts: (1) building a mouse phantom for intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) quality assurance (QA), (2) proving usability of a microCT for treatment planning, (3) fabricating a small animal positioning system for use with the CyberKnife's image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) system, and (4)in vivo verification of targeting accuracy. A set of solid water mouse phantoms was designed and fabricated, with radiochromic films (RCF) positioned in selected planes to measure delivered doses. After down-sampling for treatment planning compatibility, a CT image set of a phantom was imported into the CyberKnife treatment planning system—MultiPlan (ver. 3.5.2). A 0.5 cm diameter sphere was contoured within the phantom to represent a hemispherical section of a mouse brain. A nude mouse was scanned in an alpha cradle using a microCT scanner (cone-beam, 157 × 149 pixels slices, 0.2 mm longitudinal slice thickness). Based on the results of our positional accuracy study, a planning treatment volume (PTV) was created. A stereotactic body mold of the mouse was “printed” using a 3D printer laying UV curable acrylic plastic. Printer instructions were based on exported contours of the mouse's skin. Positional reproducibility in the mold was checked by measuring ten CT scans. To verify accurate dose delivery in vivo, six mice were irradiated in the mold with a 4 mm target contour and a 2 mm PTV margin to 3 Gy and sacrificed within 20 min to avoid DNA repair. The brain was sliced and stained for analysis. Results: For the IMRT QA using a set of phantoms, the planned dose (6 Gy to the calculation point) was compared to the delivered dose measured via film and analyzed using Gamma analysis (3% and 3 mm). A passing rate of 99% was measured in areas of above 40% of the prescription dose. The final inverse treatment plan was comprised of 43 beams ranging from 5 to 12.5 mm in diameter (2.5 mm size increments are available up to 15 mm in diameter collimation). Using the Xsight Spine Tracking module, the CyberKnife system could not reliably identify and track the tiny mouse spine; however, the CyberKnife system could identify and track the fiducial markers on the 3D mold.In vivo positional accuracy analysis using the 3D mold generated a mean error of 1.41 mm ± 0.73 mm when fiducial markers were used for position tracking. Analysis of the dissected brain confirmed the ability to target the correct brain volume. Conclusions: With the use of a stereotactic body mold with fiducial markers, microCT imaging, and resolution down-sampling, the CyberKnife system can successfully perform small-animal radiotherapy studies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

On Neural Architectures for Astronomical Time-series Classification with Application to Variable Stars

Despite the utility of neural networks (NNs) for astronomical time-series classification, the proliferation of learning architectures applied to diverse data sets has thus far hampered a direct intercomparison of different approaches. Here we perform the first comprehensive study of variants of NN-based learning and inference for astronomical time series, aiming to provide the community with an overview on relative performance and, hopefully, a set of best-in-class choices for practical implementations. In both supervised and self-supervised contexts, we study the effects of different time-series-compatible layer choices, namely the dilated temporal convolutional neural network (dTCNs), long-short term memory NNs, gated recurrent units and temporal convolutional NNs (tCNNs). Additionally, we also study the efficacy and performance of encoder-decoder (i.e., autoencoder) networks compared to direct classification networks, different pathways to include auxiliary (non-time-series) metadata, and different approaches to incorporate multi-passband data (i.e., multiple time series per source). Performance—applied to a sample of 17,604 variable stars (VSs) from the MAssive Compact Halo Objects (MACHO) survey across 10 imbalanced classes—is measured in training convergence time, classification accuracy, reconstruction error, and generated latent variables. We find that networks with recurrent NNs generally outperform dTCNs and, in many scenarios, yield to similar accuracy as tCNNs. In learning time and memory requirements, convolution-based layers perform better. We conclude by discussing the advantages and limitations of deep architectures for VS classification, with a particular eye toward next-generation surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the Roman Space Telescope, and Zwicky Transient Facility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design Rules for Two–Dimensional Organic Semiconductor–Incorporated Perovskites (OSiP) Gleaned from Thousands of Simulated Structures

Two-dimensional (2D) halide perovskites are an attractive class of hybrid perovskites that have additional optoelectronic tunability due to their accommodation of relatively large organic ligands. Nevertheless, contemporary ligand design depends on either expensive trial-and-error testing of whether a ligand can be integrated within the lattice or conservative heuristics that unduly limit the scope of ligand chemistries. Here, the structural determinants of stable ligand incorporation within Ruddlesden-Popper (RP) phase perovskites are established by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of over ten-thousand RP-phase perovskites and training of machine learning classifiers capable of predicting structural stability based solely on generalizable ligand features. The simulation results show near-perfect predictions of positive and negative literature examples, predict trade-offs between several ligand features and stability, and ultimately predict an inexhaustibly large 2D-compatible ligand design-space.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Earth Mover’s Distance as a Metric to Evaluate the Extent of Charge Transfer in Excitations Using Discretized Real-Space Densities

This paper presents a novel theoretical measure, μ EMD , based on the earth mover's distance (EMD), for quantifying the density shift caused by electronic excitations in molecules. As input, the EMD metric uses only the discretized ground- and excited-state electron densities in real space, rendering it compatible with almost all electronic structure methods used to calculate excited states. The EMD metric is compared against other popular theoretical metrics for describing the extent of electron-hole separation in a wide range of excited states (valence, Rydberg, charge transfer, etc.). Further, the results showcase the EMD metric's effectiveness across all excitation types and suggest that it is useful as an additional tool to characterize electronic excitations. The study also reveals that μ EMD can function as a promising diagnostic tool for predicting the failure of pure exchange-correlation functionals. Specifically, we show statistical relationships among the functional-driven errors, the exact exchange content within the functional, and the magnitude of μ EMD values.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determining the bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated C 3 F 8 dark matter detectors

The bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated liquids plays a crucial role in interpreting results from direct searches for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. Here, the PICO collaboration presents the results of the efficiencies for bubble nucleation from carbon and fluorine recoils in superheated C 3 F 8 from calibration data taken with five distinct neutron spectra at various thermodynamic thresholds ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 keV. Instead of assuming any particular functional forms for the nuclear recoil efficiency, a generalized piecewise linear model is proposed with systematic errors included as nuisance parameters to minimize model-introduced uncertainties. A Markov chain Monte Carlo routine is applied to sample the nuclear recoil efficiency for fluorine and carbon at 2.45 and 3.29 keV thermodynamic thresholds simultaneously. The nucleation efficiency for fluorine was found to be ≥ 50% for nuclear recoils of 3.3 keV (3.7 keV) at a thermodynamic Seitz threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV), and for carbon the efficiency was found to be ≥ 50% for recoils of 10.6 keV (11.1 keV) at a threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV). Simulated datasets are used to calculate a p value for the fit, confirming that the model used is compatible with the data. The fit paradigm is also assessed for potential systematic biases, which although small, are corrected for. Additional steps are performed to calculate the expected interaction rates of WIMPs in the PICO-60 detector, a requirement for calculating WIMP exclusion limits.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2011

EVOLUTION OF GALAXY LUMINOSITY FUNCTION USING PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS

We examine the impact of using photometric redshifts for studying the evolution of both the global galaxy luminosity function (LF) and that for different galaxy types. To this end, we compare the LFs obtained using photometric redshifts from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) D1 field with those from the spectroscopic survey VIMOS VLT Deep Survey (VVDS) comprising {approx}4800 galaxies. We find that for z {<=} 2.0, in the interval of magnitudes considered by this survey, the LFs obtained using photometric and spectroscopic redshifts show a remarkable agreement. This good agreement led us to use all four Deep fields of the CFHTLS comprising {approx}386,000 galaxies to compute the LF of the combined fields and directly estimate the error in the parameters based on the field-to-field variation. We find that the characteristic absolute magnitude M* of Schechter fits fades by {approx}0.7 mag from z {approx} 1.8 to z {approx} 0.3, while the characteristic density {phi}* increases by a factor of {approx}4 in the same redshift interval. We use the galaxy classification provided by the template fitting program used to compute photometric redshifts and split the sample into galaxy types. We find that these Schechter parameters evolve differently for each galaxy type, an indication that their evolution is a combination of several effects: galaxy merging, star formation quenching, and mass assembly. All these results are compatible with those obtained by different spectroscopic surveys such as VVDS, DEEP2, and zCosmos, which reinforces the fact that photometric redshifts can be used to study galaxy evolution, at least for the redshift bins adopted so far. This is of great interest since future very large imaging surveys containing hundreds of millions of galaxies will allow us to obtain important precise measurements to constrain the evolution of the LF and to explore the dependence of this evolution on morphology and/or color helping constrain the mechanisms of galaxy evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Planck 2015 results: XI. CMB power spectra, likelihoods, and robustness of parameters

This study presents the Planck 2015 likelihoods, statistical descriptions of the 2-point correlationfunctions of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization fluctuations that account for relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. They are based on the same hybrid approach used for the previous release, i.e., a pixel-based likelihood at low multipoles (ℓ< 30) and a Gaussian approximation to the distribution of cross-power spectra at higher multipoles. The main improvements are the use of more and better processed data and of Planck polarization information, along with more detailed models of foregrounds and instrumental uncertainties. The increased redundancy brought by more than doubling the amount of data analysed enables further consistency checks and enhanced immunity to systematic effects. It also improves the constraining power of Planck, in particular with regard to small-scale foreground properties. Progress in the modelling of foreground emission enables the retention of a larger fraction of the sky to determine the properties of the CMB, which also contributes to the enhanced precision of the spectra. Improvements in data processing and instrumental modelling further reduce uncertainties. Extensive tests establish the robustness and accuracy of the likelihood results, from temperature alone, from polarization alone, and from their combination. For temperature, we also perform a full likelihood analysis of realistic end-to-end simulations of the instrumental response to the sky, which were fed into the actual data processing pipeline; this does not reveal biases from residual low-level instrumental systematics. Even with the increase in precision and robustness, the ΛCDM cosmological model continues to offer a very good fit to the Planck data. The slope of the primordial scalar fluctuations, n s , is confirmed smaller than unity at more than 5σ from Planck alone. We further validate the robustness of the likelihood results against specific extensions to the baseline cosmology, which are particularly sensitive to data at high multipoles. For instance, the effective number of neutrino species remains compatible with the canonical value of 3.046. For this first detailed analysis of Planck polarization spectra, we concentrate at high multipoles on the E modes, leaving the analysis of the weaker B modes to future work. At low multipoles we use temperature maps at all Planck frequencies along with a subset of polarization data. These data take advantage of Planck’s wide frequency coverage to improve the separation of CMB and foreground emission. Within the baseline ΛCDM cosmology this requires τ = 0.078 ± 0.019 for the reionization optical depth, which is significantly lower than estimates without the use of high-frequency data for explicit monitoring of dust emission. At high multipoles we detect residual systematic errors in E polarization, typically at the μK 2 level; we therefore choose to retain temperature information alone for high multipoles as the recommended baseline, in particular for testing non-minimal models. Finally and nevertheless, the high-multipole polarization spectra from Planck are already good enough to enable a separate high-precision determination of the parameters of the ΛCDM model, showing consistency with those established independently from temperature information alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of Stress and Temperature Effects on Creep of Reduced Activation Ferritic-Martensitic Steel Alloy F82H (Tertiary Creep Modeling of RAFM Steel)

A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multi-mechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600 °C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework [1]. Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. Validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel at 600 °C. The model is further extended using a temperature dependent scaling law approach to simulate creep response between 550 °C and 650 °C. The efficacy of this extension is compared with the previously used scaling law approach for Grade 91 steel.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Determining the bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ dark matter detectors

The bubble nucleation efficiency of low-energy nuclear recoils in superheated liquids plays a crucial role in interpreting results from direct searches for weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter. The PICO Collaboration presents the results of the efficiencies for bubble nucleation from carbon and fluorine recoils in superheated C$_3$F$_8$ from calibration data taken with 5 distinct neutron spectra at various thermodynamic thresholds ranging from 2.1 keV to 3.9 keV. Instead of assuming any particular functional forms for the nuclear recoil efficiency, a generalized piecewise linear model is proposed with systematic errors included as nuisance parameters to minimize model-introduced uncertainties. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) routine is applied to sample the nuclear recoil efficiency for fluorine and carbon at 2.45 keV and 3.29 keV thermodynamic thresholds simultaneously. The nucleation efficiency for fluorine was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for nuclear recoils of 3.3 keV (3.7 keV) at a thermodynamic Seitz threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV), and for carbon the efficiency was found to be $\geq 50\, \%$ for recoils of 10.6 keV (11.1 keV) at a threshold of 2.45 keV (3.29 keV). Simulated data sets are used to calculate a p-value for the fit, confirming that the model used is compatible with the data. The fit paradigm is also assessed for potential systematic biases, which although small, are corrected for. Additional steps are performed to calculate the expected interaction rates of WIMPs in the PICO-60 detector, a requirement for calculating WIMP exclusion limits.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗