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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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SICOPOLIS-AD: Quick-Start Manual (Revision 0.11)

SICOPOLIS-AD is a version of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS used to produce adjoint sensitivities of chosen control variables. It can be used to assess the sensitivity of some quantity of interest to perturbations in variables that may affect that quantity of interest. For example, it can be used to comprehensively and quantitatively assess exactly how the volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet is sensitive to changes in surface temperature at each point on the ice sheet. This document provides basic startup and troubleshooting methods, as well as some best practices for making changes in the code for the purposes of adjoint production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Lagrangian perspective on tropical anvil cloud lifecycle in present and future climate

The evolution of tropical anvil clouds from their origin in deep convective cores to their slow decay determines the climatic effects of clouds in tropical convective regions. Despite the relevance of anvil clouds for climate and responses of clouds to global warming, processes dominating their evolution are not well understood. Currently available observational data reveal instantaneous snapshots of anvil cloud properties, but cannot provide a process-based perspective on anvil evolution. We therefore conduct simulations with the high resolution version of the Exascale Earth System Model in which we track mesoscale convective systems over the Tropical Western Pacific and compute trajectories that follow air parcels detrained from peaks of convective activity. With this approach we gain new insight into the anvil cloud evolution both in present day and future climate. Comparison with geostationary satellite data shows that the model is able to simulate maritime mesoscale convective systems reasonably well. Trajectory results indicate that anvil cloud lifetime is about 15 hours with no significant change in a warmer climate. The anvil ice mixing ratio is larger in a warmer climate due to a larger source of ice by detrainment and larger depositional growth leading to a more negative net cloud radiative effect along detrained trajectories. However, the increases in sources are counteracted by increases in sinks of ice, particularly snow formation and sedimentation. Furthermore, we find that the mean anvil cloud feedback along trajectories is positive and consistent with results from more traditional cloud feedback calculation methods.

climate, weather, mesocale cellular convection↗

The Water Table Model (WTM) (v2.0.1): coupled groundwater and dynamic lake modelling

Abstract. Ice-free land comprises 26 % of the Earth's surface and holds liquid water that delineates ecosystems, affects global geochemical cycling, and modulates sea levels. However, we currently lack the capacity to simulate and predict these terrestrial water changes across the full range of relevant spatial (watershed to global) and temporal (monthly to millennial) scales. To address this knowledge gap, we present the Water Table Model (WTM), which integrates coupled components to compute dynamic lake and groundwater levels. The groundwater component solves the 2D horizontal groundwater flow equation using non-linear equation solvers from the C++ PETSc (Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation) library. The dynamic lake component makes use of the Fill–Spill–Merge (FSM) algorithm to move surface water into lakes, where it may evaporate or affect groundwater flow. In a proof-of-concept application, we demonstrate the continental-scale capabilities of the WTM by simulating the steady-state climate-driven water table for the present day and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 calendar years before present) across the North American continent. During the LGM, North America stored an additional 14.98 cm of sea-level equivalent (SLE) in lakes and groundwater compared to the climate-driven present-day scenario. We compare the present-day result to other simulations and real-world data. Open-source code for the WTM is available on GitHub and Zenodo.

Callaghan, Kerry L. (ORCID:0000000226740838)↗

On the degeneracy of spin ice graphs, and its estimate via the Bethe permanent

The concept of spin ice can be extended to a general graph. We study the degeneracy of spin ice graph on arbitrary interaction structures via graph theory. We map spin ice graphs to the Ising model on a graph and clarify whether the inverse mapping is possible via a modified Krausz construction. From the gauge freedom of frustrated Ising systems, we derive exact, general results about frustration and degeneracy. We demonstrate for the first time that every spin ice graph, with the exception of the one-dimensional Ising model, is degenerate. We then study how degeneracy scales in size, using the mapping between Eulerian trails and spin ice manifolds, and a permanental identity for the number of Eulerian orientations. Furthermore, we show that the Bethe permanent technique provides both an estimate and a lower bound to the frustration of spin ices on arbitrary graphs of even degree. While such a technique can also be used to obtain an upper bound, we find that in all finite degree examples we studied, another upper bound based on Schrijver inequality is tighter.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A nonhydrostatic formulation for MPAS-Ocean

The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-Ocean) is an open-source, global ocean model and is one component of a family of climate models within the MPAS framework, including atmosphere, sea-ice, and land-ice models. Here, in this work, a new formulation for the ocean model is presented that solves the nonhydrostatic, incompressible Boussinesq equations on an unstructured, staggered, z-level grid. The introduction of this nonhydrostatic capability is necessary for the resolution of internal wave dynamics and large eddy simulations. Compared to the standard, hydrostatic formulation, a nonhydrostatic pressure solver and a vertical momentum equation are added, where the PETSc (Portable Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation) library is used for the inversion of a large sparse system for the nonhydrostatic pressure. Numerical results on a stratified seiche, internal solitary wave, overflow and lock-exchange test cases are presented, and the parallel efficiency of the code is evaluated using up to 1024 processors.

3D Poisson equation↗

A nonhydrostatic formulation for MPAS-Ocean

The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-Ocean) is an open-source, global ocean model and is one component of a family of climate models within the MPAS framework, including atmosphere, sea-ice, and land-ice models. Here, in this work, a new formulation for the ocean model is presented that solves the nonhydrostatic, incompressible Boussinesq equations on an unstructured, staggered, z-level grid. The introduction of this nonhydrostatic capability is necessary for the resolution of internal wave dynamics and large eddy simulations. Compared to the standard, hydrostatic formulation, a nonhydrostatic pressure solver and a vertical momentum equation are added, where the PETSc (Portable Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation) library is used for the inversion of a large sparse system for the nonhydrostatic pressure. Numerical results on a stratified seiche, internal solitary wave, overflow and lock-exchange test cases are presented, and the parallel efficiency of the code is evaluated using up to 1024 processors.

3D Poisson equation↗

CT Scans of Cores Metadata, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2015

Individual ice cores were collected from Barrow Environmental Observatory in Barrow, Alaska, throughout 2013 and 2014. Cores were drilled along different transects to sample polygonal features (i.e. the trough, center and rim of high, transitional and low center polygons). Most cores were drilled around 1 meter in depth and a few deep cores were drilled around 3 meters in depth. Three-dimensional images of the frozen cores were constructed using a medical X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanner. TIFF files can be uploaded to ImageJ (an open-source imaging software) to examine soil structure and soil densities within each core.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Basic Physical Processes Involving Dust in Fusion Plasmas

This report presents the main outcomes of our research focused on understanding the behavior and effects of dust particles in fusion plasmas, particularly in the edge regions of tokamaks and stellarators. We conducted computer modeling studies of burst injections of carbon and tungsten dust particles in DIII-D like divertor plasmas. The studies investigated effects of transient influx of the low- and high-Z material plasma contaminants in form of dust on the edge plasma dynamics in a modern mid-size tokamak. We also performed theoretical and computational studies of the forces acting on non-spherical dust grains in magnetized and nonmagnetized plasmas. In addition, we cooperated with General Atomics slag management group on development of DIII-D dust injection experiments to measure trajectories of dust grains in the divertor plasma and compare them with DUSTT code predictions for validation of the dust modeling capabilities. We collaborated with JET experimentalists on evaluation of radiative losses induced by injection of mixed neon-deuterium ice pellets for disruption and run-away electron generation mitigation during thermal and current quench phases. We also cooperated with experimentalists at LHD fusion device (Japan) on modeling support of experiments on injection of boron granules in fusion plasma discharges to assess their dynamics and effectiveness for in situ dynamic wall conditioning.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗

CICE on a C-grid: new momentum, stress, and transport schemes for CICEv6.5

Abstract. This article presents the C-grid implementation of the CICE sea ice model, including the C-grid discretization of the momentum equation, the boundary conditions (BCs), and the modifications to the code required to use the incremental remapping transport scheme. To validate the new C-grid implementation, many numerical experiments were conducted and compared to the B-grid solutions. In idealized experiments, the standard advection method (incremental remapping with C-grid velocities interpolated to the cell corners) leads to a checkerboard pattern. A modal analysis demonstrates that this computational noise originates from the spatial averaging of C-grid velocities at corners. The checkerboard pattern can be eliminated by adjusting the departure regions to match the divergence obtained from the solution of the momentum equation. We refer to this novel approach as the edge flux adjustment (EFA) method. The C-grid discretization with edge flux adjustment allows for transport in channels that are one grid cell wide – a capability that is not possible with the B-grid discretization nor with the C-grid and standard remapping advection. Simulation results match the predicted values of a novel analytical solution for one-grid-cell-wide channels.

Lemieux, Jean-François (ORCID:0000000320845759)↗

NED_Asteroid_Energy_Deposition

In the event of a potentially catastrophic asteroid impact, with sufficient warning time, deploying a nuclear device remains a powerful option for planetary defense if a kinetic impactor proves insufficient. Predicting the effectiveness of a potential nuclear deflection or disruption mission depends on accurate multiphysics simulations of the device's x-ray energy deposition into the asteroid and the resulting material ablation. These simulations span many orders of magnitude, require a variety of different complex physics packages, and are computationally expensive. Having an efficient and accurate way of modeling this system is necessary for exploring a mission's sensitivity to the asteroid's range of physical properties. To expedite future simulations, we present a completed x-ray energy deposition model developed using the radiation-hydrodynamics code Kull which can be used to initiate a nuclear mitigation mission hydrocode. The model spans a wide variety of possible mission initial conditions: four different asteroid-like materials (Silicon Dioxide, Forsterite, Iron, and Ice), two different source spectra (1 and 2 keV blackbodies), and then a broad range of radiation fluences (0.0001 to 1 kt per square meter), source durations (10 to 100 ns), and asteroid porosities (0 to 80 percent). Using blowoff momentum as the primary metric, the modelinitiated simulation results match the full radiation-hydrodynamics results to within 10 percent. Please reference the journal article: Burkey et al., X-Ray Energy Deposition Model for Simulating Asteroid Response to a Nuclear Planetary Defense Mitigation Mission, Planetary Science Journal, (2023) for more information.

Managan, RobertA↗

LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0: using synthetic float capabilities in E3SMv2 to assess spatiotemporal variability in ocean physics and biogeochemistry

Since their advent over 2 decades ago, autonomous Argo floats have revolutionized the field of oceanography, and, more recently, the addition of biogeochemical and biological sensors to these floats has greatly improved our understanding of carbon, nutrient, and oxygen cycling in the ocean. While Argo floats offer unprecedented horizontal, vertical, and temporal coverage of the global ocean, uncertainties remain about whether Argo sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability in physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. As the true distributions of, e.g., temperature or oxygen are unknown, these uncertainties remain difficult to address with Argo floats alone. Numerical models with synthetic observing systems offer one potential avenue to address these uncertainties. Here, we implement synthetic biogeochemical Argo floats into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2), which build on the Lagrangian In Situ Global High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT) module in E3SMv2 (E3SMv2-LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0). Since the synthetic floats sample the model fields at model run time, the end user defines the sampling protocol ahead of any model simulation, including the number and distribution of synthetic floats to be deployed, their sampling frequency, and the prognostic or diagnostic model fields to be sampled. Using a 6-year proof-of-concept simulation, we illustrate the utility of the synthetic floats in different case studies. In particular, we quantify the impact of (i) sampling density on the float-derived detection of deep-ocean change in temperature or oxygen and on float-derived estimates of phytoplankton phenology, (ii) sampling frequency and sea-ice cover on float trajectory lengths and hence float-derived estimates of current velocities, and (iii) short-term variability in ecosystem stressors on estimates of their seasonal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deliver Signal Phase and Timing (SPAT) for Energy Optimization of Vehicle Cohort Via Cloud-Computing and LTE Communications

Predictive Signal Phase and Timing (SPAT) message set is one fundamental building block for vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) applications such as Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) at traffic signal controlled urban intersections. Among the two complementary communication methods namely short-range sidelink (PC5) and long-range cellular radio link (Uu), this paper documents the work with long-range link: the complete data chain includes connecting to the traffic signals via existing backhaul communication network, collecting the raw signal phase state data, predicting the signal state changes and delivering the SPAT data via a geofenced service to requests over HTTP protocols. An Application Programming Interface (API) library is developed to support various cellular data transmission reduction and latency improvement techniques. An emulation-based algorithm is applied to predict the traffic signal state changes to provide adequate prediction horizon (e.g., at minimum 2 minutes) for the cohort energy optimization. In fact, the same connectivity and SPAT delivery methodology has been applied to traffic signalized intersections nationwide in the United States upon public agency approvals for access to their firewalled traffic control network and signal control systems or directly to individual controllers. This methodology proves its effectiveness and potential for rapid growth of such SPAT deliveries at mass production scale without needing infrastructure hardware retrofit or excessive communication means. To support the energy optimization of light and heavy-duty vehicle cohorts of mixed automation and propulsion systems (EV, ICE and hybrid), the connection and SPAT deliveries at two sites were completed, including public roads in Washtenaw County, Michigan and closed track test sites at American Center for Mobility (ACM) in Ypsilanti, Michigan. However, only closed test track results at ACM will be presented in this paper. A neuroevolution based optimizer is developed and implemented to control the speed of a vehicle cohort with different propulsion systems and automation levels. Closed track tests showed significant energy savings of the cohort operation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Numerical simulation of frost formation and heat transfer on fin-and-tube heat exchangers in turbulent cross-flow

Frost formation in fin-and-tube heat exchangers in turbulent cross-flow presents significant challenges in industrial refrigeration applications, affecting heat transfer efficiency and operational reliability. The purpose of this work is to investigate frost deposition and growth on a staggered bank of a fin-and-tube freezer coil under turbulent forced convection conditions. The focus here is on investigating conditions that closely replicate real-world scenarios in large walk-in industrial freezers. Using a direct numerical simulation approach, we examine the flow dynamics and thermal behaviour in the presence of frost, considering turbulent regimes characterized by a Reynolds number in the range 1050 ≤ R e D , avg ≤ 4800 , with the characteristic length being the outer diameter of the tube and the velocity being the bulk fluid velocity between the plates (fins). Computational fluid dynamics simulations are employed to resolve the interactions between turbulent airflow and the frost layer. Our approach incorporates a modified immersed boundary method and a slow-time acceleration technique to address the complex dynamic interface between the continuously evolving frost layer and the flowing air stream. Our findings indicate that frost forms more on the sides of the finned surfaces (plates) and less on the tubes themselves. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Holocene thinning of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers, Antarctica, and implications for grounding-line retreat in the Ross Sea

Chronologies of glacier deposits in the Transantarctic Mountains provide important constraints on grounding-line retreat during the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea. However, between Beardmore Glacier and Ross Island – a distance of some 600 km – the existing chronologies are generally sparse and far from the modern grounding line, leaving the past dynamics of this vast region largely unconstrained. We present exposure ages of glacial deposits at three locations alongside the Darwin–Hatherton Glacier System – including within 10 km of the modern grounding line – that record several hundred meters of Late Pleistocene to Early Holocene thickening relative to present. As the ice sheet grounding line in the Ross Sea retreated, Hatherton Glacier thinned steadily from about 9 until about 3 ka. Our data are equivocal about the maximum thickness and Mid-Holocene to Early Holocene history at the mouth of Darwin Glacier, allowing for two conflicting deglaciation scenarios: (1) ~500 m of thinning from 9 to 3 ka, similar to Hatherton Glacier, or (2) ~950 m of thinning, with a rapid pulse of ~600 m thinning at around 5 ka. We test these two scenarios using a 1.5-dimensional flowband model, forced by ice thickness changes at the mouth of Darwin Glacier and evaluated by fit to the chronology of deposits at Hatherton Glacier. The constraints from Hatherton Glacier are consistent with the interpretation that the mouth of Darwin Glacier thinned steadily by ~500 m from 9 to 3 ka. Rapid pulses of thinning at the mouth of Darwin Glacier are ruled out by the data at Hatherton Glacier. This contrasts with some of the available records from the mouths of other outlet glaciers in the Transantarctic Mountains, many of which thinned by hundreds of meters over roughly a 1000-year period in the Early Holocene. The deglaciation histories of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers are best matched by a steady decrease in catchment area through the Holocene, suggesting that Byrd and/or Mulock glaciers may have captured roughly half of the catchment area of Darwin and Hatherton glaciers during the last deglaciation. An ensemble of three-dimensional ice sheet model simulations suggest that Darwin and Hatherton glaciers are strongly buttressed by convergent flow with ice from neighboring Byrd and Mulock glaciers, and by lateral drag past Minna Bluff, which could have led to a pattern of retreat distinct from other glaciers throughout the Transantarctic Mountains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗

Systematic Validation of Ensemble Cloud-Process Simulations using Polarimetric Radar Observations and Simulator over the NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The BiLateral Operational Storm-Scale Observation and Modeling (BLOSSOM) project was initiated to establish a long-term supersite to improve understanding of cloud physical states and processes as well as to support satellite and climate model programs over the WFF site via a bilateral approach of storm-scale observations and process modeling. This study highlights a noble systematic validation framework of the BLOSSOM ensemble cloud-process simulations through mixed-phase, light-rain, and deep-convective precipitation cases. The framework consists of creating a domain-shifted ensemble of large-scale forcing datasets, and configuring and performing cloud-process simulations with three different bulk microphysics schemes. Validation uses NASA S-band dual-POLarimetric radar (NPOL) observations in the form of statistical composites and skill scores via a polarimetric radar simulator and newly developed CfRad Data tool (CfRAD). While the simulations capture the overall structures of the reflectivity composites, polarimetric signals are still poorly simulated, mainly due to a lack of representation of ice microphysics diversity in shapes, orientation distributions, and their complex mixtures. Despite the limitation, this new ensemble-based validation framework demonstrates that 1) no particular forcing or microphysics scheme outperforms the rest and 2) the skill scores of coarse- and fine-resolution ensemble simulations with different domain-shifted forcing and microphysics schemes are highly correlated with each other with no clear improvement. On the other hand, this suggests that coarse-resolution ensemble simulations are relevant for selecting the best meteorological forcing and microphysics scheme before conducting computationally demanding large eddy simulations (LESs) in support of aircraft and satellite instrument development as well as cloud-precipitation-convection parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗